Effect of Ukraine’s public debt management on its macroeconomic development: VAR modeling
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Author(s)Fedir ZhuravkaLink to Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/fedir-zhuravka-2955b480/Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8368-5743Link to Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com.ua/citations?user=QsNtRGUAAAAJ&hl=ru&oi=sra
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Mila RazinkovaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1590-7428
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Olena PlakhotnikLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9717-2877
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Tetiana GrynkoLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7882-4523
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Natalia NebabaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1264-106X
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.21(4).2023.37
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Article InfoVolume 21 2023, Issue #4, pp. 483-501
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72 Downloads
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
One of the tools of economic policy of any country is efficient public debt management, which influences and determines the dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators. The study aims to assess how public debt management affects Ukraine’s macroeconomic development. The analyzed period includes data of 2015–2021. Econometric modeling is used to establish the existence of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt and changes in key macroeconomic indicators using the Granger causality test and VAR (Vector Autoregression) model. The obtained results demonstrate that during the study period, the strongest links existed between the public debt and GDP, debt servicing and Ukraine’s total state budget expenditures, public debt and consumer price index, real effective exchange rate index of the hryvnia to the US dollar, and political stability index. At the same time, the calculations proved that public debt does not have a significant impact on foreign direct investment and the level of imports of goods and services. The proposed model allows for forecasts for future periods and can be used in developing public debt management policy.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)H60, H63, H69
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References41
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Tables8
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Figures4
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- Figure B1. Dynamics of Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators that are interdependent with the public debt (2015–2021)
- Figure D1. Comparison of real data with model values from the VAR model
- Figure F1. Comparison of actual data with model values of the VAR model
- Figure G1. Projections of chosen macroeconomic indicators based on the VAR model for 2021–2023
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- Table 1. Significance of Granger causality test statistics for identifying causal relationships between specific macroeconomic indicators and the general government debt to GDP ratio in Ukraine during the period 2015–2021
- Table 2. The p-value for the statistics of the Granger causality test examining causal relationships between specific macroeconomic indicators and the ratio of total government debt to GDP of Ukraine during the period 2015–2021
- Table 3. Results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test for chosen macroeconomic indicators from 2015 to 2021
- Table 4. Search results for the optimal order of the VAR model for selected macroeconomic indicators over 2015–2021
- Table 5. Forecasting the values of chosen macroeconomic indicators by employing the VAR model from 2021 to 2023
- Table A1. Dynamics of Ukraine’s macroeconomic indicators selected to identify interdependent relationships with public debt (quarterly values for 2015–2021)
- Table C1. Results of VAR modeling for selected macroeconomic indicators for the period 2015–2021
- Table E1. Results of VAR modeling for selected macroeconomic indicators during 2015–2021
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Impact on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia’s economic growth
Rabiul Islam ,
Ahmad Bashawir Abdul Ghani ,
Irwanshah Zainal Abidin ,
Jeya Malar Rayaiappan
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.05
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 15, 2017 Issue #1 pp. 55-62 Views: 11915 Downloads: 5693 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯPoverty and income inequality are extreme issues that still exist in Malaysia. Any rise in poverty and income inequality definitely affect economic growth. There are many great efforts taken by the government of Malaysia to eradicate poverty and to reduce the gap of income inequality which occurs since 1970’s. The incidence of poverty and income inequality is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas. This paper is mainly to study the level of poverty and income inequality in Malaysia together with government intervention to develop Malaysia’s economic growth. The research is focused among the working people at Ipoh, Perak. In this paper, questionnaire forms are being distributed to get information regarding the issue of poverty and income inequality. It also looks into the strategies taken by the government of Malaysia to eradicate poverty and income inequality. Few recommendations are given in terms of education policy, financial aid and assistance from government and non-government organization (NGO) to upgrade the standard and quality of living among the poor and lower-income group of people.
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Anthony Olugbenga Adaramola ,
Oluwabunmi Dada
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(2).2020.01
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #2 pp. 1-13 Views: 9132 Downloads: 5463 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯIn an attempt to examine the influence of inflation on the growth prospects of the Nigerian economy, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag on the selected variables, i.e. real gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, degree of economy`s openness, money supply, and government consumption expenditures for the period 1980–2018. The study findings indicate that inflation and real exchange rate exert a significant negative impact on economic growth, while interest rate and money supply indicate a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Other variables in the model depict no influence on the economic growth of Nigeria. The causality result shows the unidirectional relationships between interest rate, exchange rate, government consumption expenditures and gross domestic product. However, inflation and the degree of openness show no causal relationship with gross domestic product. As a result, the study recommends that a more pragmatic effort is needed by the monetary authorities to target the inflation vigorously to prevent its adverse effect by ensuring a tolerable rate that would stimulate the economic growth of Nigeria.
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Formalization of the impact of imbalances in the movement of financial resources on economic growth of countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Serhiy Kozmenko ,
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doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/afc.01(1).2017.06
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