Assessment of the reforms and programs results of Ukraine’s economy sustainable development by means of neural networks


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It is necessary to choose proper methodology and indicators for assessing sustainable economic development as the information becomes a tool for decision-making support of sustainable development policies and implementation of programs. In Ukraine, evaluating the results of implementation of different programs for development is essential as an analytical basis for making a strategy for the next period and a prerequisite for further progress.
Certain shortcomings of linear models for evaluating the results appeared during the design and implementation of the strategy to manage sustainable economic development. The potential for establishing erroneous targets increases in the formation of strategic objectives for the next forecast period. There is a special need to choose adequate indicators to comprehensively approximate the factors of economic development and evaluation methods that allow more sensitively measuring the results of management decisions in the implementation of the strategy.
The article evaluates the results of the Sustainable Development Strategy “Ukraine – 2020”, employing the potential of the neural network method for a flexible combination of a large number of factors in constructing nonlinear models of impact on the resulting indicator. As a result of applying the neural network model with one hidden layer for evaluation, based on 16 indicators identifying economic, social, and institutional aspects of sustainable development of Ukraine, it was found that institutional transformations contribute most to achieving sustainable development. Reforms in terms of deregulation and support of entrepreneurship, property rights protection, and competitive environment have the most significant positive impact. On the other hand, low efficiency of capital market reforms, implementation of the energy efficiency program, and reform in the field of public procurement determine the need to revise the program of their fulfilment.

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    • Figure 1. Trends in the development of Ukraine’s economy in 2006–2019
    • Figure 2. The structure of the model with a neural component with one source to determine the relationship between performance indicators of reforms and sustainable development programs and the volume of GDP per capita in Ukraine
    • Figure 3. Graphs of the neural network of communication of indicators of reforms and programs of sustainable development effectiveness and the volume of GDP per capita of Ukraine for 2015–2019
    • Table 1. Key indicators for assessing the implementation of the Sustainable Development Strategy “Ukraine – 2020”
    • Table 2. The value of international indices as an indicator of assessing the implementation of reforms and programs of sustainable economic development of Ukraine in 2015–2019
    • Table 3. Gradation of the effectiveness of reforms and programs for sustainable development of the national economy of Ukraine for 2015–2019
    • Conceptualization
      Iryna Skliar, Nataliya Pedchenko, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Investigation
      Iryna Skliar, Victoria Strilec, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Visualization
      Iryna Skliar, Victoria Novikova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Iryna Skliar, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Methodology
      Nataliya Pedchenko, Victoria Strilec
    • Validation
      Nataliya Pedchenko, Victoria Novikova
    • Writing – original draft
      Nataliya Pedchenko, Victoria Strilec, Victoria Novikova, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Formal Analysis
      Victoria Strilec
    • Software
      Victoria Strilec, Yevhenii Kozmenko
    • Data curation
      Victoria Novikova