The moderating role of investor sentiment on profitability and investment premiums: Evidence from the Indonesian stock market
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Received October 5, 2024;Accepted March 31, 2025;Published April 18, 2025
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Author(s)Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0838-833X
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Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9532-1664,
Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6222-9190,
Link to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4537-0737 -
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.22(2).2025.09
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Article InfoVolume 22 2025, Issue #2, pp. 100-111
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Common market anomalies tested in developed markets have been considered adequate to explain behavior there. However, the different characteristics in emerging markets such as Indonesia make traditional asset pricing models inadequate. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of integrating company fundamentals and investor sentiment. This study enriches the asset pricing method in Indonesia and supports the theory of market signals and anomalies. This study analyzes the moderating role of investor sentiment on the relationship between profitability premium, investment premium, and stock returns in one of the emerging markets, Indonesia. The study uses panel data from 93 companies in Indonesia from 2013 to 2023. Portfolio construction with the five-factor model is used. The analysis method used is moderated regression analysis or interaction testing. The study results show that profitability premium and excess return interact significantly with investor sentiment at the 1% level, so investment premium and excess return interact significantly with investor sentiment at the 1% level. This study shows that investor sentiment plays a role in strengthening the premiums for profitability and investment. The findings of this study indicate that considering a company’s financial condition and sentiment level is essential for investors and investment managers in implementing long-term stock investment analysis strategies in emerging markets such as Indonesia. This study can support market stability policies, such as tighter supervision, when negative sentiment has the potential to cause a decline in stock prices that is disproportionate to fundamentals.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Indonesian Capital Market for providing data supporting this study’s results. Thanks also to the promoter, co-promoter, and reviewer for their suggestions and input, which were very helpful in preparing this article. In addition, the family has provided prayers and patience in supporting the author in carrying out this research. This research was supported by funding from Universitas Syiah Kuala.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G41, G12, G11, G14
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References48
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Tables5
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Figures0
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- Table 1. Descriptive statistics
- Table 2. Correlation matrix
- Table 3. Test results for the appropriate estimating models
- Table 4. Regression analysis (N = 1,023)
- Table 5. Hypothesis testing results
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Conceptualization
Zaida Rizqi Zainul
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Formal Analysis
Zaida Rizqi Zainul, Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Nisrul Irawati
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Funding acquisition
Zaida Rizqi Zainul, Khaira Amalia Fachrudin
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Project administration
Zaida Rizqi Zainul
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Resources
Zaida Rizqi Zainul
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Software
Zaida Rizqi Zainul, Khaira Amalia Fachrudin
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Writing – original draft
Zaida Rizqi Zainul
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Writing – review & editing
Zaida Rizqi Zainul, Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan, Nisrul Irawati
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Data curation
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan
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Investigation
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan, Nisrul Irawati
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Methodology
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan, Nisrul Irawati
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Supervision
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan, Nisrul Irawati
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Validation
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Syahyunan, Nisrul Irawati
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Visualization
Khaira Amalia Fachrudin, Nisrul Irawati
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Conceptualization
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The moderating role of firm size and interest rate in capital structure of the firms: selected sample from sugar sector of Pakistan
Sarfraz Hussain, Abdul Quddus
, Pham Phat Tien
, Muhammad Rafiq
, Drahomíra Pavelková
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(4).2020.29
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #4 pp. 341-355 Views: 3917 Downloads: 426 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThe selection of financing is a top priority for businesses, particularly in short- and long-term investment decisions. Mixing debt and equity leads to decisions on the financial structure for businesses. This research analyzes the moderate position of company size and the interest rate in the capital structure over six years (2013–2018) for 29 listed Pakistani enterprises operating in the sugar market. This research employed static panel analysis and dynamic panel analysis on linear and nonlinear regression methods. The capital structure included debt to capital ratio, non-current liabilities, plus current liabilities to capital as a dependent variable. Independent variables were profitability, firm size, tangibility, Non-Debt Tax Shield, liquidity, and macroeconomic variables were exchange rates and interest rates. The investigation reported that profitability, firm size, and Non-Debt Tax Shield were significant and negative, while tangibility and interest rates significantly and positively affected debt to capital ratio. This means the sugar sector has greater financial leverage to manage the funding obligations for the better performance of firms. Therefore, the outcomes revealed that the moderators have an important influence on capital structure.
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Service quality, customers’ satisfaction, and profitability: an empirical study of Saudi Arabian insurance sector
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 15, 2018 Issue #2 pp. 232-247 Views: 3823 Downloads: 612 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯFinancial performance is the fundamental aspect to test the performance of the companies. The performance of insurance sector, like any other service industry, is supposed to depend significantly on customers. When it comes to customers, it is an established fact that customer satisfaction would be an important element. Customer satisfaction primarily depends on the quality of service it gets. It can be safely hypothesized that better service quality would lead to higher satisfaction, which would ultimately lead to higher profits for the company. Studies on this relationship in the insurance sector for Saudi Arabia are missing. Hence, this study aims at studying both the profitability of companies and quality of service and tries to relate it to customer satisfaction. The results are quite surprising, as the study establishes that although the qualities of services are found wanting in many areas, companies are earning good profits. A probable reason could be the statutory nature of the services. Nevertheless, this study recommends improving the quality of services and differentiating services between age groups for further improvement.
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The effect of working capital management on profitability: a case of listed manufacturing firms in South Africa
Jason Kasozi doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(2-2).2017.05Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 14, 2017 Issue #2 (cont. 2) pp. 336-346 Views: 3494 Downloads: 2726 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯWorking capital management plays a pivotal role in enhancing the operational efficiency of firms and their ultimate profitability. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to examine the trends in working capital management and its impact on the financial performance of listed manufacturing firms on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE). A panel data methodology was used with different regression estimators to analyze this relationship based on an unbalanced panel of 69 manufacturing firms listed during the period 2007–2016.
The findings revealed that the average collection period and the average payment period are negative and statistically significant for profitability, implying that firms which efficiently manage their accounts receivable and those that pay their creditors on time perform better than those that do not. Additionally, a positive statistically significant relationship between the number of days in inventory and profitability was supported suggesting that firms which stock-up and maintain their inventory levels suffer less from stock-outs and avoid challenges of securing financing when needed. This increases their operational efficiency and ensures profitability in the long run. It could not be ascertained whether a shorter or longer cash conversion cycle enhances firm profitability, since findings to support this premise were weak. However, it was observed that manufacturing firms are on average, carrying lot of debt in their capital structures.
The present study contributes to existing literature by presenting one of the very recent findings on this topic while simultaneously testing the validity of recent local and international methodologies, in order to inform policy change.