Dynamics of Indonesian stock market interconnection: Insights from selected ASEAN countries and global players during and after the COVID-19 pandemic
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.21(2).2024.14
-
Article InfoVolume 21 2024, Issue #2, pp. 180-190
- 259 Views
-
54 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study investigates the evolving dynamics of the Indonesian stock market in relation to selected ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) and global economic players (the US, Japan, and China) during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing weekly data for the pandemic era (January 2020 – December 2021) and the post-pandemic period (January 2022 – December 2023), the ARDL technique reveals intricate relationships among these capital markets. Long-term analyses indicate that Singapore and the Philippines positively influenced Indonesia’s market during the pandemic. At the same time, China had a negative impact, highlighting heightened sensitivity and interconnectedness during crises. Since the pandemic, Malaysia, Singapore, the US, China, and Japan emerged as key positive influencers, with other countries showing insignificance. In the short term, during the pandemic, Malaysia, Thailand, and China had a significant positive impact on Indonesia’s capital market. However, only Malaysia continued to exert a significant influence on Indonesia after the pandemic. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interactions shaping Indonesia’s stock market performance amidst global economic fluctuations and crises.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C01, O19, O53
-
References25
-
Tables4
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Plot of CUSUM model during COVID-19
- Figure 2. Plot of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ after COVID-19
-
- Table 1. Descriptive and correlation analysis
- Table 2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron root test
- Table 3. ARDL bound testing
- Table 4. Short-run estimation under error correction (Indonesia as a dependent variable)
-
- Appiah, M. O. (2018). Investigating the multivariate Granger causality between energy consumption, economic growth and CO 2 emissions in Ghana. Energy Policy, 112, 198-208.
- Banerjee, A., Dolado, J., & Mestre, R. (1998). Error-correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single-equation Framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267-283.
- Boubakri, S., & Guillaumin, C. (2015). Regional integration of the East Asian stock markets: An empirical assessment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 57, 136-160.
- Caporale, G. M., Gil-Alana, L. A., & You, K. (2021). Stock Market Linkages between the Asean Countries, China and the US: A Fractional Integration/cointegration Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 58(5), 502-1514.
- Chien, M.-S., Lee, C.-C., Hu, T.-C., & Hu, H.-T. (2015). Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5. Economic Modelling, 51, 84-98.
- Click, R. W., & Plummer, M. G. (2005). Stock market integration in ASEAN after the Asian financial crisis. Journal of Asian Economics, 16(1), 5-28.
- Kremers, J. J. M., Ericsson, N. R., & Dolado, J. J. (1992). The Power Of Cointegration Tests. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), 325-348.
- Le, T.-H., Vo, L. H., & Taghizadeh-Hesary, F. (2022). A study on the nonlinear dynamics of ASEAN financial integration. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies.
- Lee, G., & Jeong, J. (2016). An Investigation of Global and Regional Integration of ASEAN Economic Community Stock Market: Dynamic Risk Decomposition Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(9), 2069-2086.
- Li, B., & Zeng, Z. (2018). Time-varying dependence structures of equity markets of China, ASEAN and the USA. Applied Economics Letters, 25(2), 87-91.
- Muharam, H., Robiyanto, R., Pangestuti, I., & Mawardi, W. (2020). Measuring Asian Stock Market Integration by Using Orthogonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(1), 121-137.
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
- Nguyen, T. D., & Elisabeta, P. (2016). Financial integration and diversification benefits: China and ASEAN4 countries. Managerial Finance, 42(5), 496-514.
- Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (1996). Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1-2), 117-143.
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
- Priscilla, S., Hatane, S. E., & Tarigan, J. (2022). COVID-19 catastrophes and stock market liquidity: evidence from technology industry of four biggest ASEAN capital market. Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration.
- Puspitasari, A., Siregar, H., & Andati, T. (2018). Analisis Integrasi Bursa Saham Asean 5 [Asean Stock Exchange Integration Analysis 5]. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 4(2), 187-206. (In Indonesian).
- Robiyanto, R. (2018). Capital Market Integration In Some Asean Countries Revisited. Jurnal Manajemen, 22(2), 205.
- Robiyanto, R., Frensidy, B., Setyawan, I. R., & Huruta, A. D. (2021). A Different View on ASEAN Capital Market Integration. Economies, 9(4), 141.
- Robiyanto, R., Nugroho, B. A., Handriani, E., & Frensidy, B. (2023). Measuring the effectiveness of ASEAN-5 initiatives from emerging market portfolio’s perspective. Cogent Business & Management, 10(1).
- Sadiq, M., Hsu, C.-C., Zhang, Y., & Chien, F. (2021). COVID-19 fear and volatility index movements: empirical insights from ASEAN stock markets. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(47), 67167-67184.
- Sharma, S. S., Narayan, P. K., Thuraisamy, K., & Laila, N. (2019). Is Indonesia’s stock market different when it comes to predictability? Emerging Markets Review, 40, 100623.
- Shrestha, M. B., & Bhatta, G. R. (2018). Selecting appropriate methodological framework for time series data analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2), 71-89.
- Suriawinata, I. S., Setianingrum, P. H., Prastuti, D., Rusli, D., & Pranitasari, D. (2023). Covid-19, structural breaks, and capital market integration: Indonesian evidence. Jurnal STEI Ekonomi, 32(1), 1-15.
- Wolff, P. (2022). The 2030 Agenda and Capital Market Integration in ASEAN. In Sustainable Development Goals and Pandemic Planning (pp. 543-565). Springer Nature Singapore.