Dynamics of Indonesian stock market interconnection: Insights from selected ASEAN countries and global players during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

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This study investigates the evolving dynamics of the Indonesian stock market in relation to selected ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) and global economic players (the US, Japan, and China) during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing weekly data for the pandemic era (January 2020 – December 2021) and the post-pandemic period (January 2022 – December 2023), the ARDL technique reveals intricate relationships among these capital markets. Long-term analyses indicate that Singapore and the Philippines positively influenced Indonesia’s market during the pandemic. At the same time, China had a negative impact, highlighting heightened sensitivity and interconnectedness during crises. Since the pandemic, Malaysia, Singapore, the US, China, and Japan emerged as key positive influencers, with other countries showing insignificance. In the short term, during the pandemic, Malaysia, Thailand, and China had a significant positive impact on Indonesia’s capital market. However, only Malaysia continued to exert a significant influence on Indonesia after the pandemic. These findings provide valuable insights into the dynamic interactions shaping Indonesia’s stock market performance amidst global economic fluctuations and crises.

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    • Figure 1. Plot of CUSUM model during COVID-19
    • Figure 2. Plot of CUSUM and CUSUMSQ after COVID-19
    • Table 1. Descriptive and correlation analysis
    • Table 2. Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron root test
    • Table 3. ARDL bound testing
    • Table 4. Short-run estimation under error correction (Indonesia as a dependent variable)
    • Conceptualization
      Muhammad Anhar
    • Formal Analysis
      Muhammad Anhar, Agustian Burda, La Ode Sumail
    • Funding acquisition
      Muhammad Anhar, Ridwan Maronrong
    • Methodology
      Muhammad Anhar
    • Writing – original draft
      Muhammad Anhar, La Ode Sumail
    • Data curation
      Ridwan Maronrong, Agustian Burda, La Ode Sumail
    • Investigation
      Ridwan Maronrong, Agustian Burda, La Ode Sumail
    • Resources
      Ridwan Maronrong
    • Writing – review & editing
      Ridwan Maronrong, Agustian Burda, La Ode Sumail
    • Supervision
      Agustian Burda
    • Validation
      Agustian Burda, La Ode Sumail
    • Visualization
      La Ode Sumail