Inclusion of debt claims in asset pricing models: Evidence from the CDS Index
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.20(2).2023.11
-
Article InfoVolume 20 2023, Issue #2, pp. 127-136
- 324 Views
-
149 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Asset pricing theory suggests that the correct proxy for the market portfolio should contain both the debt and equity claims of the economy, whereas prevailing empirical studies fail to include the debt claim. Motived by the discrepancy between the theoretical and empirical models and the difficulty in constructing proxies, the study uses the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market index as a proxy for the debt market and empirically tests its explanatory power in explaining stock return variations. Employing panel regression and Fama-MacBeth regression of all publicly traded U.S. companies from 2005 to 2020, the study finds a negative relationship between CDS index returns and stock returns. On average, a one standard deviation increase in CDS index return is associated with a 0.02% decrease in daily stock returns. Results of two-stage regressions show that the estimated systematic credit risk is positively priced in stock returns with similar economic magnitude as the well-documented beta risk. These results support asset pricing theories in the inclusion of debt claim and the risk-return tradeoff, while contradicting the credit risk puzzle documented in prior studies.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G10, G12
-
References36
-
Tables7
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. CDS Index and S&P 500 Index between 2005 to 2020
- Figure 2. Coefficients on CDS Index Returns
-
- Table 1. Summary statistics
- Table 2. Correlation coefficients
- Table 3. Regression analyses with full sample
- Table 4. Regression analyses − with leverage and credit rating subsamples
- Table 5. Regression analyses by year
- Table 6. Regression analyses by industry
- Table 7. Credit market beta as additional risk factor
-
- Aretz, K., & Shackleton, M. B. (2011). Omitted debt risk, financial distress and the cross-section of expected equity returns. Journal of Banking & Finance, 35(5), 1213-1227.
- Avramov, D., Chordia, T., Jostova, G., & Philipov, A. (2009). Credit ratings and the cross-section of stock returns. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 469-499.
- Avramov, D., Chordia, T., Jostova, G., & Philipov, A. (2013). Anomalies and financial distress. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(1), 139-159.
- Banz, R. W. (1981). The relationship between return and market value of common stocks. Journal of Financial Economics, 9(1), 3-18.
- Basu, S. (1977). Investment performance of common stocks in relation to their price-earnings ratios: A test of the efficient market hypothesis. The Journal of Finance, 32(3), 663-682.
- Campbell, J. Y., Hilscher, J., & Szilagyi, J. (2008). In search of distress risk. The Journal of Finance, 63(6), 2899-2939.
- Chen, S. N. (1982). An examination of risk-return relationship in bull and bear markets using time-varying betas. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 17(2), 265-286.
- Dichev, I. D. (1998). Is the risk of bankruptcy a systematic risk? The Journal of Finance, 53(3), 1131-1147.
- Dichev, I. D., & Piotroski, J. D. (2001). The long-run stock returns following bond ratings changes. The Journal of Finance, 56(1), 173-203.
- Duffie, D., Saita, L., & Wang, K. (2007). Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(3), 635-665.
- Düllmann, K., & Sosinska, A. (2007). Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 21, 269-292.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
- Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1996). Multifactor explanations of asset pricing anomalies. The Journal of Finance, 51(1), 55-84.
- Fang, H., & Lee, Y. H. (2011). The impact of the subprime financial crisis on stock index returns for high-and low-risk countries via CDS indices. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 8(4), 123-137.
- Ferguson, M. F., & Shockley, R. L. (2003). Equilibrium “anomalies”. The Journal of Finance, 58(6), 2549-2580.
- Forte, S., & Pena, J. I. (2009). Credit spreads: An empirical analysis on the informational content of stocks, bonds, and CDS. Journal of Banking & Finance, 33(11), 2013-2025.
- George, T. J., & Hwang, C. Y. (2010). A resolution of the distress risk and leverage puzzles in the cross section of stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 96(1), 56-79.
- Goyal, A. (2012). Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 26, 3-38.
- Griffin, J. M., & Lemmon, M. L. (2002). Book-to-market equity, distress risk, and stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 57(5), 2317-2336.
- Hahn, J., & Lee, H. (2006). Yield spreads as alternative risk factors for size and book-to-market. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(2), 245-269.
- Hammami, Y. (2014). An empirical investigation of asset pricing models under divergent lending and borrowing rates. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 28, 263-279.
- Kim, M. K., & Zumwalt, J. K. (1979). An analysis of risk in bull and bear markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 14(5), 1015-1025.
- Lintner, J. (1965). Security prices, risk, and maximal gains from diversification. The Journal of Finance, 20(4), 587-615.
- Longstaff, F. A., & Wang, J. (2012). Asset pricing and the credit market. The Review of Financial Studies, 25(11), 3169-3215.
- Longstaff, F. A., Mithal, S., & Neis, E. (2005). Corporate yield spreads: Default risk or liquidity? New evidence from the credit default swap market. The Journal of Finance, 60(5), 2213-2253.
- Markovitz, H. M. (1959). Portfolio selection: Efficient diversification of investments. John Wiley.
- Merton, R. C. (1974). On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), 449-470.
- Nickell, P., Perraudin, W., & Varotto, S. (2000). Stability of rating transitions. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(1-2), 203-227.
- Norden, L., & Weber, M. (2009). The co-movement of credit default swap, bond and stock markets: An empirical analysis. European Financial Management, 15(3), 529-562.
- Roll, R. (1977). A critique of the asset pricing theory’s tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory. Journal of Financial Economics, 4(2), 129-176.
- Shanken, J. (1985). Multivariate tests of the zero-beta CAPM. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(3), 327-348.
- Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
- Tang, D. Y., & Yan, H. (2010). Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(4), 743-753.
- Vassalou, M., & Xing, Y. (2004). Default risk in equity returns. The Journal of Finance, 59(2), 831-868.
- Zhang, B. Y., Zhou, H., & Zhu, H. (2009). Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(12), 5099-5131.