Inclusion of debt claims in asset pricing models: Evidence from the CDS Index

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Asset pricing theory suggests that the correct proxy for the market portfolio should contain both the debt and equity claims of the economy, whereas prevailing empirical studies fail to include the debt claim. Motived by the discrepancy between the theoretical and empirical models and the difficulty in constructing proxies, the study uses the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) market index as a proxy for the debt market and empirically tests its explanatory power in explaining stock return variations. Employing panel regression and Fama-MacBeth regression of all publicly traded U.S. companies from 2005 to 2020, the study finds a negative relationship between CDS index returns and stock returns. On average, a one standard deviation increase in CDS index return is associated with a 0.02% decrease in daily stock returns. Results of two-stage regressions show that the estimated systematic credit risk is positively priced in stock returns with similar economic magnitude as the well-documented beta risk. These results support asset pricing theories in the inclusion of debt claim and the risk-return tradeoff, while contradicting the credit risk puzzle documented in prior studies.

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    • Figure 1. CDS Index and S&P 500 Index between 2005 to 2020
    • Figure 2. Coefficients on CDS Index Returns
    • Table 1. Summary statistics
    • Table 2. Correlation coefficients
    • Table 3. Regression analyses with full sample
    • Table 4. Regression analyses − with leverage and credit rating subsamples
    • Table 5. Regression analyses by year
    • Table 6. Regression analyses by industry
    • Table 7. Credit market beta as additional risk factor
    • Conceptualization
      Lijing Du, Susan M. V. Flaherty
    • Data curation
      Lijing Du
    • Formal Analysis
      Lijing Du
    • Methodology
      Lijing Du, Susan M. V. Flaherty
    • Writing – original draft
      Lijing Du, Susan M. V. Flaherty
    • Writing – review & editing
      Lijing Du, Susan M. V. Flaherty