Impact of the US unconventional monetary policy in times of crises on Vietnam

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The study investigates the effects of the US unconventional monetary policy on the Vietnamese economy, focusing on the output and price index. Besides, the differences in the response of these indicators to the shock related to non-traditional tools implemented by the US in the Global Financial Crisis and during the pandemic crisis are also explored. By applying the Structural Vector Autoregressive model on the monthly dataset from January 2007 to April 2022, the results show that an expansionary monetary policy of the US by unconventional measures leads to a rise in the output and price index of Vietnam. In addition, risk-taking channels and portfolio rebalancing channels are important in the transmission of the US monetary policy to Vietnam, they cause booms in asset prices via the surge of capital flows. Moreover, another important finding is that the impact of US UMP on the Vietnamese economy during the Global Financial Crisis was generally two times higher than during the epidemic crisis.

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    • Figure 1. Responses of GDP and CPI to the US UMP shock: 2007M1-2022M4
    • Figure 2. Responses of GDP and CPI to the VIX shock: 2007M1-2022M4
    • Figure 3. Responses of GDP, CPI, and SP to the CF shock: 2007M1-2022M4
    • Figure 4. The response of GDP to US UMP shock in the period of GFC (2008M1-2014M12) and during the pandemic crisis (2019M12-2022M4)
    • Figure 5. The response of CPI to US UMP shock in the period of GFC (2008M1-2014M12) and during the pandemic crisis (2019M12-2022M4)
    • Figure 6. The responses of GDP to the SSR, VIX and CF shocks: 2007M1-2022M4
    • Figure 7. The responses of CPI to the SSR, VIX and CF shocks: 2007M1-2022M4
    • Table 1. Description of variables and data sources
    • Table 2. Unit root test results
    • Conceptualization
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Data curation
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Formal Analysis
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Investigation
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Methodology
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Project administration
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Resources
      Nam Sy Ngo, Ha Thanh Doan
    • Software
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Supervision
      Nam Sy Ngo, Ha Thanh Doan
    • Validation
      Nam Sy Ngo, Ha Thanh Doan
    • Visualization
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Writing – original draft
      Nam Sy Ngo
    • Writing – review & editing
      Nam Sy Ngo, Ha Thanh Doan
    • Funding acquisition
      Ha Thanh Doan