Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on stock market returns volatility of Gulf Cooperation Council countries
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(4).2021.05
-
Article InfoVolume 18 2021, Issue #4, pp. 45-56
- Cited by
- 877 Views
-
361 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study examined the asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock market return volatility. The data included daily closing prices of the GCC stock market from the day of the acknowledgment of the first case of COVID-19 in each country to March 6, 2021. In addition, the study employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) family models. According to the Akaike information criterion, GARCH and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) were the most accurate models. The findings of the GARCH model indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic affected the GCC stock markets. The EGARCH model also confirmed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the GCC stock markets, confirming that the COVID-19 negatively affected GCC stock market returns. The value of the persistence of this volatility continued over a long period. This study has potential implications for investors and policymakers in diversifying investment portfolios and adopting strategies to maintain investor confidence during such crises. Moreover, mechanisms must be developed for reducing risks in financial markets in times of crisis, and central banks should take financial measures to mitigate risks to capital markets.
Acknowledgments
This achievement was made with the aid of my family’s support, thank you all.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G10, C22, C58
-
References29
-
Tables10
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Volatility in GCC stock market return index
- Figure 2. News impact curves of volatility models
-
- Table 1. The stock exchange market indexes and the announcement of the first COVID-19 infection
- Table 2. Descriptive statistics of stock market return indexes
- Table 3. ADF unit root test
- Table 4. Zivot and Andrews (1992) unit root test
- Table 5. Heteroskedasticity test: ARCH
- Table 6. GARCH results
- Table 7. Sign bias test result
- Table 8. TGARCH and EGARCH results
- Table 9. News impact and volatility persistence
- Table 10. Heteroskedasticity test
-
- Alam, M. N., Alam, M. S., & Chavali, K. (2020). Stock market response during COVID-19 lockdown period in India: An event study. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(7), 131-137.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2021). COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101699.
- Alsedrah, I. T., & Gherbi, E. A. H. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on total market trade value (institutional investors vs non-institutional investors). Journal of Sustainable Finance and Investment.
- Bahrini, R., & Filfilan, A. (2020). Impact of the novel COVID-19 on stock market returns: evidence from GCC countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(4), 640-652.
- Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742-758.
- Choi, C., & Jung, H. (2021). COVID-19’s impacts on the Korean stock market. Applied Economics Letters.
- Cui, Y., Li, L., & Tang, Z. (2021). Risk analysis of China stock market during economic downturns-based on garch-var and wavelet transformation approaches. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 11(4), 322-336.
- Elhassan, T., & Braima, B. (2020). Impact of Khartoum Stock Exchange Market Performance on Economic Growth: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL Bounds Testing Model. Economies, 8(4), 86.
- Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 50(4), 987-1007.
- Engle, R. F., & Bollerslev, T. (1986). Modelling the persistence of conditional variances. Econometric Reviews, 5(1), 1-50.
- Engle, R. F., & Ng, V. K. (1993). Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility. The Journal of Finance, 48(5), 1749-1778.
- Fernandez-Perez, A., Gilbert, A., Indriawan, I., & Nguyen, N. H. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic and stock market response: A culture effect. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 29, 100454.
- Gherbi, E. A. H., & Alsedrah, I. T. (2021). Does stock market development and COVID-19 pandemic lead to financial crisis: the case of largest Islamic stock exchange market? Journal of Sustainable Finance and Investment.
- Harjoto, M. A., & Rossi, F. (2021). Market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from emerging markets. International Journal of Emerging Markets.
- Izzeldin, M., Muradoğlu, Y. G., Pappas, V., & Sivaprasad, S. (2021). The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74(December 2020).
- Kusumahadi, T. A., & Permana, F. C. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on global stock market volatility. Journal of Economic Integration, 36(1), 20-45.
- MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11-601.
- Mazur, M., Dang, M., & Vega, M. (2021). COVID-19 and the march 2020 stock market crash. Evidence from S&P1500. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101690.
- Mohsin, M., Naiwen, L., Zia-UR-Rehman, M., Naseem, S., & Baig, S. A. (2020). The volatility of bank stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals in the Pakistani context: An application of GARCH and EGARCH models. Oeconomia Copernicana, 11(4), 609-636.
- Mubasher. (2021). Tadawul All Share Index (TASI).
- Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset ret urns: A new approach. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 59(2), 347-370.
- Sahoo, M. (2021). COVID-19 impact on stock market: Evidence from the Indian stock market. Journal of Public Affairs, e2621.
- Shafiullah, M., Khalid, U., & Chaudhry, S. M. (2021). Do stock markets play a role in determining COVID-19 economic stimulus? A cross-country analysis. World Economy.
- Siriopoulos, C., Svingou, A., & Dandu, J. (2021). Lessons for Euro markets from the first wave of COVID-19. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(1), 285-298.
- Subramaniam, S., & Chakraborty, M. (2021). COVID-19 fear index: does it matter for stock market returns? Review of Behavioral Finance, 13(1), 40-50.
- Yong, J. N. C., Ziaei, S. M., & Szulczyk, K. R. (2021). The impact of covid-19 pandemic on stock market return volatility: Evidence from Malaysia and Singapore. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 11(3), 191-204.
- Yousfi, M., Ben Zaied, Y., Ben Cheikh, N., Ben Lahouel, B., & Bouzgarrou, H. (2021). Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US stock market and uncertainty: A comparative assessment between the first and second waves. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 167, 120710.
- Zakoian, J. (1994). Threshold heteroskedastic models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 18(5), 931-955.
- Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.