Lessons for Euro markets from the first wave of COVID-19
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(1).2021.24
-
Article InfoVolume 18 2021, Issue #1, pp. 285-298
- Cited by
- 974 Views
-
335 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Although the coronavirus pandemic hit Europe in the early days of 2020, European stock markets had signaled fluctuations in the days before. This paper assesses the observed volatility on European stock exchanges and searches for its sources during the first four months of 2020. To investigate the issue, a panel VAR model is adopted, and the generalized impulse response function and the variance decomposition methods are used. The estimations show that about 34% of the volatility in European stock markets is due to the Chinese stock market, while 7% is due to international uncertainty, as measured by VIX. The impact of pandemic cases and deaths on European stock markets is negligible, below 1%. This means that the European stock market faced two risk elements: the first is the transmission volatility from the Chinese stock market, and the second is the international uncertainty. The findings also support the view that COVID-19 is more like a systematic risk.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G15, G17, G24
-
References28
-
Tables6
-
Figures5
-
- Figure 1. COVID-19 cases per European countries
- Figure 2. Stock returns per European countries
- Figure 3.Generalized impulse response of European stock returns to COVID-19 cases and deaths, Chinese returns and VIX index
- Figure 4. Sub-periods’ generalized impulse response of European stock returns to COVID-19 cases and deaths, Chinese returns and VIX index
- Figure 5. Generalized impulse response of European stock returns to COVID-19 cases and deaths, Chinese returns and VIX index per group
-
- Table 1. Contribution of Chinese returns, COVID-19 deaths and cases, and VIX to the forecast error variance of European stock returns
- Table 2. Countries of each Group
- Table 3. Contribution of Chinese returns, COVID-19 deaths and cases, and VIX to the forecast error variance of European stock returns per group
- Table A1. Country and indices sample
- Table A2. Confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths and market volatility
- Table A3. Panel data unit root test
-
- Ali, M., Alam, N., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Coronavirus (COVID-19) – An epidemic or pandemic for financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100341.
- Al-Awadhi, A. M., Al-Saifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., &Alhamadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 100326.
- Albulescu, C. (2020). Coronavirus and Financial Volatility: 40 Days of Fasting and Fear.
- Akhtaruzzaman, M., Boubaker, S., &Sensoy, A. (2020). Financial contagion during COVID–19 crisis. Finance Research Letters, 38,101604.
- Ashley, R. A., & Patterson, D. M. (1986). A nonparametric, distribution-free test for serial independence in stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 21(2), 221-227.
- Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). Covid-induced economic uncertainty (No. w26983). National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Berkman, H., Jacobsen, B., & Lee, J. B. (2011). Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(2), 313-332.
- Changqing, L., Chi, X., Cong, Y., & Yan, X. (2015). Measuring financial market risk contagion using dynamic MRS-Copula models: The case of Chinese and other international stock markets. Economic Modelling, 51, 657-671.
- Chen, M. P., Lee, C. C., Lin, Y. H., & Chen, W. Y. (2018). Did the SARS epidemic weaken the integration of Asian stock markets? Evidence from smooth time-varying cointegration analysis. Economic research-Ekonomskaistraživanja, 31(1), 908-926.
- Corbet, S., Larkin, C., & Lucey, B. (2020). The contagion effects of the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Gold and Cryptocurrencies. Finance Research Letters, 101554.
- Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy.
- Fotiadis, A., Polyzos, S., & Huan, T. C. T. (2021). The good, the bad and the ugly on COVID-19 tourism recovery. Annals of Tourism Research, 87, 103117.
- Grubel, H. G., &Fadner, K. (1971). The interdependence of international equity markets. The Journal of Finance, 26(1), 89-94.
- Hanif, W., Mensi, W., & Vo, X. V. (2021). Impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on the spillovers between US and Chinese stock sectors. Finance Research Letters, 101922.
- Ichev, R., &Marinč, M. (2018). Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153-166.
- Kollias, C., Papadamou, S., &Siriopoulos, C. (2013). European markets’ reactions to exogenous shocks: A high frequency data analysis of the 2005 London bombings.International Journal of Financial Studies, 1(4), 154-167.
- Lee, J. W., &McKibbin, W. J. (2004, April). Estimating the global economic costs of SARS. In Learning from SARS: preparing for the next disease outbreak: workshop summary (p. 92). Washington, DC: National Academies Press.
- Loh, L. (2013). Co-movement of Asia-Pacific with European and US stock market returns: A cross-time-frequency analysis. Research in International Business and Finance, 29, 1-13.
- Nippani, S., & Washer, K. M. (2004). SARS: a non-event for affected countries’ stock markets? Applied Financial Economics, 14(15), 1105-1110.
- Sharif, A., Aloui, C., & Yarovaya, L. (2020). COVID 19 pandemic,oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach. International Review of Financial Analysis.
- Papadamou, S., Fassas, A., Kenourgios, D., &Dimitriou, D. (2020). Direct and Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Implied Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis.
- Philippas, D., &Siriopoulos, C. (2013). Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 27, 161-176.
- Reis, P. M. N., &Pinho, C. (2020). COVID-19 and investor sentiment influence on the US and European countries sector returns. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 17(3), 373.
- Siddiqui, T. A., Ahmed, H., & Naushad, M. (2020). Diffusion of COVID-19 impact across selected stock markets: a wavelet coherency analysis. Investment Management & Financial Innovations, 17(4), 202-214.
- Vasileiou, E., Samitas, A., Karagiannaki, M., & Dandu, J. (2020). Health risk and the efficient market hypothesis in the time of COVID-19. International Review of Applied Economics, 1-14.
- Zhang, D., Hu, M., & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101528.
- Zaremba, A., Kizys, R., Aharon, D. Y., & Demir, E. (2020). Infected Markets: Novel Coronavirus, Government Interventions, and Stock Return Volatility around the Globe. Finance Research Letters, 101597.
- Zhou, X., Zhang, W., & Zhang, J. (2012). Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 20(2), 247-270.