Financialization of the global economy: Macroeconomic implications and policy challenges for Ukraine
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(1).2021.13
-
Article InfoVolume 18 2021, Issue #1, pp. 151-164
- Cited by
- 1137 Views
-
782 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The acceleration of the global economy’s financialization with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the risks of financial markets volatility, boom and bust cycles, violation of price stability, and debt sustainability. In such conditions, the high degree of Ukraine economy’s external openness, significant amounts of external debt, and lack of domestic investment and credit resources raise the issue of external financial threats to the national economy. This study aims to identify the risks of financialization and debt accumulation across the globe, specify protective arrangements and vulnerabilities of Ukraine’s credit system to external shocks and develop a set of policy actions for global risks mitigation in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, available theoretical sources and policy studies were reviewed, and international databases of financial indicators have been analyzed. As a result, the underdevelopment of the financial system in Ukraine and insufficient use of the credit levers by the private sector are revealed, which impede economic growth but simultaneously mitigate the impact of external shocks in Ukraine’s economy. On the other hand, high external debt reliance is confirmed, which increases the risks of financialization and cross-border capital flows for Ukraine’s economy. A set of financial and organizational measures (targeted at eliminating credit and debt distortions in Ukraine and creating a financial basis for sustainable economic growth) are devised; they refer to development of the national capital market, fiscal policy adjustment, acceleration of the foreign direct investments inflows, shifts in the NBU’s monetary policy, and the management of foreign exchange reserves.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)F65, F34, E61, G18
-
References30
-
Tables3
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Global debt in relative and absolute terms in 2011–2020
- Figure 2. Areas and mechanisms of shocks spillovers in Ukraine’s economy
-
- Table 1. Comparison of external debt indicators of low- and middle-income countries and Ukraine as a %
- Table 2. Accumulated debt by sectors and countries (their groups) as a % of GDP at the end of 3rd quarter of 2020
- Table 3. Nominal and real interest rates of different assets in the USA in 1999–2020, per annum
-
- Barclays. (2020). Equity Gilt Study 2020: Putting the post-COVID world in context.
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2021). Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet.
- Bogdan, T. (2020). Debt-Creating Capital Flows and Shock Spillovers in an Emerging Economy (Ukraine’s Example). Journal of European Economy, 19(N1), 114-139.
- Bulow, J., Reinhart, C., Rogoff, K., & Trebash, C. (2020). The Debt Pandemic. Finance and Development, September issue.
- Calvo, G., & Reinhart, C. (2000). When capital inflows come to a sudden stop: consequences and policy options. In P. Kenen & A. Swoboda (Eds.), Key Issues in Reform of the International Monetary and Financial System (pp. 175-201). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Cecchetti, S., Mohanty, М., & Zampolli, F. (2011). The Real Effects of Debt (BIS Working Paper, 352). Basel: Bank for International Settlements.
- Cheng, J., Powell, T., Skidmore, D., & Wessel, D. (2020). What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?
- Crotty, J. (2009). Profound structural flaws in the US financial system that helped cause the financial crisis. Economic and Political Weekly, 44(13), 127-35.
- Deutsche Bank Research. (2020). The Age of Disorder – the new era for economics, politics and our way of life.
- Epstein, G. (2001). Financialization, Rentier Interests, and Central Bank Policy.
- European Central Bank. (2021). Annual consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem.
- Garrido, J., Nadeem, S., Riad, N., DeLong, Ch., Rendak, N., & Rosha, A. (2020). Tackling Private Over-Indebtedness in Asia: Economic and Legal Aspects (IMF Working Paper, 20/172). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. The Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-1107.
- Gros, D. (2020). Lessons From the COVID-19 Crisis for Euro Area Fiscal Rules. Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, 55(5), 281-284.
- Gruss, B., Nabar, M., & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2018). Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions (IMF Working Paper, 18/52). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Institute for International Finance. (n.d.). Official web-site.
- International Monetary Fund. (2017). Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017.
- International Monetary Fund (2020a). Fiscal Monitor, October 2020.
- International Monetary Fund. (2020b). Global Financial Stability Report, October 2020.
- International Monetary Fund. (2020c). COVID-19 Response in Emerging Market Economies: Conventional Policies and Beyond. IMF blog.
- International Monetary Fund. (2020d). World Economic Outlook, October 2020.
- Keshab, Bh. (2013). Financial Deepening and Economic Growth. Munich Personal RePEc Archive.
- Kozmenko, S., Korneyev, M., & Makedon, V. (2014). Financialisation of Economy and Its Influence on the Indicators of Countries’ Socioeconomic Development. Actual Problems in Economics, 161, 290-298. (In Ukrainian).
- Krippner, G. (2005). The financialization of the American economy. Socio-Economic Review. Oxford Journals, 3(2), 173-208.
- Krueger, A. (2020). Financial Repression Revisited? Project Syndicate.
- Mbaye, S., Badia, M., & Chae, K. (2018). Bailing Out the People? When Private Debt Becomes Public (IMF Working Paper, 18/141). Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
- Shkolnyk, І., Kozmenko, S., Kozmenko, O., & Mershchii, B. (2019). The impact of the economy financialization on the level of economic development of the associate EU member states. Economics and Sociology, 12(4), 43-58.
- Toporowski, J., & Calvert, J. (2020). The COVID-19 Bailout and its Financing Dilemmas.
- Тurner, A. (2020). Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit and Fixing Global Finance (416 p.). Lviv: Apriori. (In Ukrainian).
- World Bank. (2021). International Debt Statistics 2021.