Has Nigerian agricultural output spurred economic growth: the financing gap model using stepwise regression
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(3).2019.15
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2019, Issue #3, pp. 157-166
- Cited by
-
Funding dataFunder name: Covenant UniversityFunder identifier: –Award numbers: –
- 774 Views
-
135 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study examined if the Nigerian agricultural output has spurred economic growth and the best fit agricultural financing gap model for growing the economy. The study explored the dynamics of different technicality approach that stepwise regression has to offer. From the seven baskets of predictors – agricultural guaranteed finance to oil palm, cocoa, groundnuts, fishery, poultry, cattle, roots and tubers – the step fitted three predictors: roots and tubers, cocoa and poultry based on “a b” parameter with the highest “t-stats” and significant p-value and subsequently executed the model using stepwise regression analysis with the help of Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 23. The dataset covers a thirty-six year period from 1981 to 2017. The source of the data is from the Central Bank of Nigeria 2018 statistical bulletin. The findings showed that individually, root and tubers has the most contributory impact on economic growth with 81 percent. Jointly followed is cocoa at 87 percent and poultry at 90 percent. The study thus recommends a comparative cost advantage to financing agriculture with the most impactful contribution to economic growth based on the model.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)Q1, Q14, O47
-
References28
-
Tables6
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Summary of results based on step 1: Y = β +β X ?
- Table 2. Summary of results based on step 2: Y = β +β X +β X ?
- Table 3. Summary of results based on step 3: Y = β +β X +β X +β X ?
- Table 4. Model summary
- Table A1. ANOVA
- Table B1. Coefficients
-
- Africa Development Bank (2015). African Agricultural Report 2016: The Maputo Commitments and the 2014 African Union year of Agriculture. (AfDB) Group, Tunis, Tunisia.
- Africa Development Bank (2016). African Agricultural Report 2016: Progress towards agricultural transformation. (AfDB) Group, Tunis, Tunisia.
- Africa Development Bank (AfDB) (2018). Africa’s Economic Outlook: Africa’s Macroeconomic performance and prospects. (AfDB) Group, Tunis, Tunisia.
- African Development Bank (AfDB) (2017). Entrepreneurship and Industrialization: African Economic Outlook 2017. Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire.
- Ajide, K. B., & Eregha, P. B. (2015). Foreign direct investment, economic Freedom and economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Managing Global Transition, 13(1), 43-57.
- Ayeomoni, I. O., & Aladejana, S. A. (2016). Agricultural Credit and Economic Growth Nexus. Evidence from Nigeria. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance, and Management, 6(2), 146-158.
- Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) (2018). CBN statistical bulletin.
- Ewetan, O., Fakile, A., Urhie, E., & Oduntan, E. (2017). Agricultural Output and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of African Research in Business & Technology.
- Fan, S., Omilola, B., & Lambert, M. (2009, April). Public spending for Agriculture in Africa: Trends and Composition (ReSAKSS Working Paper No. 28).
- Food and Agriculture Organization of United Nations [FAO] (2018). The state of World fisheries and aquaculture: Meeting the sustainable development goals.
- Godswill, O., Ailemen, I., Osabohien, R., Chisom, N., & Pascal, N. (2018). Working capital management and bank performance: empirical research of ten deposit money banks in Nigeria. Banks and Bank Systems, 13(2), 49-61.
- Ijaiya, M. A., Sanni, M., & Amujo, E. T. (2016). Agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund: Tool for Economic growth in Nigeria. Osogbo Journal of Management, 1(3), 20-33.
- Isibor, A., Olokoyo, F., Arogundade, M., Osuma, G., & Ndigwe, C. (2018). Exchange Rate Management and Sectoral Output Performance. International journal of supply chain management, 7(5), 129-134.
- Jhigan, M. L. (2012). Principles of Economics (4th ed.). Delhi: Vrinda.
- Jhigan, M. L. (2007). Macro-Economic Theory (11th ed.). Delhi: Vrinda.
- Manyong, V. M., Ikpi, A., Olayemi, J. K., Yusuf, S. A., Omonona, R., & Idachaba, F. S. (2003). Agriculture in Nigeria: Identifying Opportunities for Increased Commercialization and Investment. USAID/Nigeria Main report from International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and University of Ibadan.
- Okunlola, F. A. (2013). Public Sector Investment in Agriculture: Structure and Influence on Nigerian Economy (1970–2010). An MBA Thesis submitted to the Department of Finance and Banking, University of Port Harcourt.
- Okunlola, F. A. (2014). NEXIM Bank and Export Promotion: Theory and Evidence. An M.SC thesis submitted to the Department of Finance and Banking. University of Port Harcourt.
- Okunlola, F. A., & Oke, J. A. (2018). Agricultural Finance, Agriculture Value Added and Diversification Growth Panacea: An Economy Comparison. Peer Review Proceeding 4th Annual International Academic Conference on Accounting and Finance organized by The Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria up-coming at Covenant University on April 18-20, 2018.
- Okunlola, F. A., Ajala, A. O., & Odesaya, T. A. (2015). Infrastructure dilemma and alternative funding: Evidence from Nigeria. Advances in Multidisciplinary and Scientific Research Journal, 12, 10-17.
- Okunlola, F. A., Ogunbiyi, S. S., & Oshi, J. E. O. (2010). Government expenditure on agriculture and the Nigerian Economy (1970–2009). The Nigerian Journal of Financial Research, 1(2), 172-189.
- Olajide, O. T., Akinlabi, B. H., & Tijani, A. A. (2011). Agriculture Resource and Economic Growth in Nigeria. European Scientific Journal, 8(22), 103-115.
- Omankhanlen, A. E. (2015). Agricultural Investment Risk Relationship to National Domestic Production. Banking, Finance, and Accounting: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications Information Resources Management Association USA, 1-3, 19.
- Oyakhilomen, O., & Zibah, R. G. (2014). Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Implication for Rural Poverty Alleviation. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, 54(3), 207-223.
- Sertoğlu, K., Ugural, U., & Bekun, F. V. (2017). The Contribution of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 547-552.
- Ulimwengu, J., Collins, J., Yeboah, F., & Traub, L. N. (2016). Driving economic transformation Africa (Agriculture status report 2016: Progress towards Agricultural Transformation in Africa).
- World Bank (2016). World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
- World Bank (2017). Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs. Washington, DC: The World Bank.