Research of macroeconomic disables of Ukraine

  • Received September 4, 2018;
    Accepted October 22, 2018;
    Published December 12, 2018
  • Author(s)
    Mykhailo Bril
    ORCID
  • DOI
    http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ed.17(4).2018.03
  • Article Info
    Volume 17 2018, issue #4, pp. 20-29
  • TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ
  • Cited by
    2 articles
  • 1119 Views
  • 132 Downloads

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

The crisis in the political and economic spheres in Ukraine has led to an aggravation of macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn worsen the socio-economic situation, complicate the moments of doing business, manifestation of violations and instability in the public administration sector and social tension in society. As the result is the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances to a critical point that threatens the normal, gradual development of economic processes that should take place in the economic space of Ukraine. The article deals with the main imbalances indicators of the country's economy and their applicability under modern Ukrainian economic policy conditions. The interconnection of the main macro-instability factors in Ukraine economy and other countries of the world is considered, which allows to identity a number of endogenous (external) and exogenous (internal) factors that create imbalances. The mechanism of imbalances detection is proposed, which combines certain categories, methods, principles and methods of their research. The simulation model for identifying macroeconomic imbalances in the Ukrainian economy was developed, based on which the dynamic properties of the macroeconomic imbalances system were investigated, a short-term indicators forecast was constructed, and assessment of the imbalances probability in the future was implemented. Forecast macroeconomic indicators were estimated that fall into critical areas also the gross external debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, changes in the share of the export market show that external imbalances and disproportion exist. Other macro indicators that form the imbalances table, according to projected calculations, show trends that are close to the ultimate limits and instability risks which confirms the vulnerability of the country's financial and economic system. The obtained forecasting results will allow to prevent new imbalances through the timely and appropriate rapid response management action.

view full abstract hide full abstract
    • Рисунок 1. Множина зовнішніх та внутрішніх факторів, що формують дисбаланси в економіці країн світу
    • Рисунок 2. Механізм виявлення дисбалансів в економіці країни
    • Рисунок 3. Діаграма причинно-наслідкових зв’язків моделі виявлення макроекономічних дисбалансів
    • Рисунок 4. Динаміка вартості нерухомості, дол/кв.м
    • Рисунок 5. Динаміка валового накопичення капіталу, млн дол
    • Рисунок 6. Динаміка експорту України, млн дол
    • Рисунок 7. Динаміка світового експорту, млн дол
    • Рисунок 8. Динаміка кількості безробітного населення, млн чол.
    • Рисунок 9. Динаміка фонду оплати праці, млн дол
    • Таблиця 1. Склад змінних моделі виявлення макроекономічних дисбалансів
    • Таблиця 2. Розрахункові значення показників макроекономічних дисбалансів України
    • Baizakov, S. B. (Ed.) (2014). Сбалансированный экономический рост: практика измерения и область применения [Sbalansirovanyy economicheskyy rost: praktika izmereniya I oblast primeneniya] (356 p.). Monohrafiya. Almaty: Ekonomika.
    • Bila, S. O. (2015). Структурні дисбаланси національного виробництва та пріоритети підвищення конкурентоспроможності економіки України в умовах глобалізації [Strukturni disbalansy natsional’noho vyrobnytstva ta prioritety pidbyshennya konkyrentospromognosti ekonomiky Ukrayiny v umovah globalizacii]. Stratehiya rozvytku Ukrayiny: ekonomika, sotsiolohiya, pravo: naukovy zhurnal NAU, 2, 9-14.
    • Bobeva, D. (2013). The new EU Macroeconomic Imbalances procedure and its Relevance for the Candidate Countries. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 2(1), 69-88.
    • Emelyanov, A. A., Vlasova, E .A., & Duma, R. V. (2002). Имитационное моделирование экономических процессов. Учеб. пособие [Imitacionnoe modelirovanie ekonomicheskyh processov. Ucheb. Posobie] (368 p.). M.: Financy I ststystika.
    • EU Law (2011). Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances. Official Journal of the European Union, L 306.
    • European Commission (2016). The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. Rationale, Process, Application: A Compendium (Institutional Papers 39).
    • Heyets, V. M. (2012). Фактори макроекономічної нестабільності в системі моделей економічного розвитку [Faktory macroekonomichnoy nestabilnosty v sistemy modeley ekonomichnoho rozvytku]. In Scripnychenko, M. I. (Ed.) (720 p.). Kyiv: IEP NAN Ukrainy.
    • Kudryavcev, K. O. (2015). Макроекономічні дисбаланси та асиметрії у Греції [Macroekonomichny disbalansy ta asimetrii u Grecii]. Naukovy visnyk Chersons’koho dergavnoho universitety, 12(2), 20-24.
    • Shetilova, T. V. (2012). Оценка глобальных дисбалансов в развитии макроэкономических систем [Ocenka globalnych disbalansov v razvytyi makroekonomichnych system]. Osnovy ekonomiky, upravleniya i prava, 6, 106-111.
    • Shums’ka, S. S. (2015). Макроекономічні дисбаланси економічного розвитку: європейська практика та оцінка ситуації в Україні [Macroekonomichny disbalansy ekonomichnoho rozvytku: Evropeyskaya praktika na otcinka situatcii v Ukrainy]. Evropeysky vector ekonomichnoho rozvitku, 1, 211-226.
    • Shums’ka, S. S., & Scripnychenko, M. I. (2010). Інструментарій моніторингу та оцінки загроз стабільності економічного розвитку України [Instrumentary monitorinhu ta otcinky zaghroz stabilnosty ekonomichnoho rozvitku Ukrayiny]. Ekonomika i prohnozuvannya, 2, 26-43.
    • Skrypnichenko, M. I. (2015). Макроекономічна збалансованість і критичні дисбаланси в економіці України [Macroekonomichna zbalansovanist’ i kritichny disbalansy v ekonomici Ukrayiny]. Ekonomika Ukrayiny, 2, 4-23.
    • Skrypnichenko, M. I. (Ed.) (2015). Модели идентификации макроэкономических дисбалансов в Украине [Modely identifikatsii macroekonomicheskich disbalansov v Ukraine: col. Monohrafiya] (544 p.). Kyiv: NAN Ukrainy, IEP NAN Ukrainy.
    • Skrypnichenko, M. I., Kuzubov, M. V., & Yatsenko, G. Y. (2016). Комплекс моделей моніторингу ключових макробалансів в економіці України [Kompleks modeley monitorinhy kluchovyh makrobalansov v ekonomitsi Ukrayiny]. Formuvanniya rynkovyh vidnosyn v Ukrayiny, 7(182), 57-65.
    • Studopedia (n.d.). Макроэкономические измерители и простейшие модели [Macroekonomicheskie izmeriteli i prosteyshie modely].
    • Tokarchuk, T. V., & Shapovalenko, N. V. (2016). Аналіз зовнішніх дисбалансів в економіці України на основі визначення прийнятного рівня поточного рахунку платіжного балансу [Analyz zovnichnych disbalansov v ekonomici Ukrayiny na osnovi vyznachenya priynatnoho rivnya potochnoho rachunkuplatignoho balansu]. Problemy ekonomiki, 4, 57-66.
    • Yrchishin, V. (Ed.) (2017). Виклики і ризики розгортання кризових процесів в Україні та напрями економічної політики їх запобігання [Vyklyky I rizyky rozhortannya krizovych procesiv v Ukrayiny ta napryamy ekonomichnoy polityky ich zapobigannya] (156 p.). Kyiv: Zapovit.
Related Articles

  • A model for analyzing the financial stability of banks in the VUCA-world conditions

    Svitlana KhalaturORCID Researcher ID, Liudmyla VelychkoORCID Researcher ID, Olena PavlenkoORCID , Oleksandr KaramushkaORCID , Mariia Huba doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(1).2021.16
    Banks and Bank Systems Volume 16, 2021          Issue #1         pp. 182-194 Views: 2386 Downloads: 588 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ

    VUСA is a chaotic and rapidly changing business environment that, based on the variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the modern world, transforms the approach of banks to the analysis of financial stability. The aim of the paper is to improve tools for monitoring the impact of VUCA-world conditions on the financial stability of banks, namely a model for studying and analyzing the impact of the modern business space “VUCA” on the financial stability of the country's banks. To test the model, the method of constructing regression equations in multifactor regression analysis is used. For this study, data from some Eastern European countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova) were used, and time series data were used for 10 years from 2010 to 2019.
    Having considered the definition of “VUCA-world conditions”, the model of modern business space “VUCA” was developed when analyzing the activity of banks in the studied countries. Drivers, consequences, requirements and macroeconomic indicators of the countries’ activities in the VUСA-world conditions are determined. The VUCA-world conditions also consider the study of key macroeconomic indicators that allow building long-term relationships throughout the value chain. The analysis of the studied Eastern European countries showed that with the increase of factors of GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, research and development costs, foreign direct investment, and net inflow of 1%, the effective ratio of bank capital and assets also increases. The assessment, in contrast to the existing ones, makes it possible to consider the impact of the macroeconomic environment of banks on their financial stability.

  • Modeling of diversification of foreign economic interactions

    Ihor HroznyiORCID , Oleh KuzmakORCID , Olena KuzmakORCID , Olha RusinovaORCID doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(1).2018.15
    Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 16, 2018         Issue #1         pp. 155-165 Views: 1557 Downloads: 165 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ

    The article developed a basic simulation model of diversification of foreign economic interactions, which makes it possible to assess the mutual influence of key economic indicators and their reaction to changes in the equilibrium in world markets. The peculiarity of the developed model of diversification of foreign economic interactions is its functioning as a complex dynamic system in which many factors are interrelated, and the connections are dynamic. This makes it possible to calculate a simulation model that takes into account hidden and subtle connections. While modeling foreign economic interactions and evaluating the influence of various regulators on them, in addition to the stage of model development itself, mandatory parameterization of this model is proposed, that is, the determination of specific types of dependence between the factors included in the model and the parameters of these dependencies.
    The implementation of this model can be carried out in any simulation package.

  • The place and perspectives of Ukraine in international integration space

    Vitalina BabenkoORCID Researcher ID, Maryna PasmorORCID , Juliia Pankova , Mykhailo Sidorov doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.08
    Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 15, 2017         Issue #1         pp. 80-92 Views: 1543 Downloads: 247 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯ

    The resulting indexes for integration processes state development analysis were formed. The integral indexes illustrating integration state were calculated on the basis of member countries of BRICS and Ukraine. It provided the possibility to evaluate socioeconomic state of the countries from the point of view of international integration and create integration processes development scenarios. The strategic directions of integration processes development for Ukraine and member countries of BRICS were formed.

Download Preview
Close
Economics of Development
Economics of Development