Assessing the impact of oil prices and inflation on bank deposits in Azerbaijan

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Bank deposits are vital for the economy, serving as a primary source of funding for banks that facilitate lending, investment, consumption, and overall economic growth. This article aims to examine how oil price fluctuations and inflation, two critical macroeconomic variables, influence bank deposits in Azerbaijan, an energy-exporting country. The primary purpose is to reveal the extent to which these factors, particularly in the context of Azerbaijan’s role as an energy exporter, affect the stability and liquidity of the banking sector. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality testing, the study analyzes the dynamic relationships among these variables. The findings demonstrate a significant long-term relationship and causal effects between oil prices, inflation, and bank deposits. Specifically, a one-unit increase in oil prices results in a 0.057-unit rise in bank deposits, underscoring the positive impact of oil price increases on banking sector liquidity. Conversely, a one-unit increase in inflation decreases bank deposits by 0.812 units in the long term, highlighting inflation’s detrimental effect on financial stability.

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    • Figure 1. Trends in bank deposits, oil prices, and inflation in Azerbaijan (2001–2021)
    • Figure 2. Evaluation of ARDL models based on AIC values
    • Figure 3. Detecting structural stability in model parameters using CUSUM
    • Figure 4. Inverse root of AR characteristic polynomial
    • Table 1. Overview of relevant studies
    • Table 2. Overview of data indicators for Azerbaijan
    • Table 3. Descriptive statistics of economic variables
    • Table 4. ADF unit root test
    • Table 5. ARDL (4,3,4) model with long-run form and bounds test
    • Table 6. Results of diagnostic tests for ARDL model specification
    • Table 7. VAR lag order selection criteria
    • Table 8. VAR residual tests
    • Table 9. Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test
    • Conceptualization
      Ramil Hasanov, Zeynab Giyasova
    • Data curation
      Ramil Hasanov, Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zeynab Giyasova, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Investigation
      Ramil Hasanov, Laszlo Vasa, Zeynab Giyasova
    • Methodology
      Ramil Hasanov, Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Resources
      Ramil Hasanov, Shafa Guliyeva, Zeynab Giyasova, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Software
      Ramil Hasanov
    • Validation
      Ramil Hasanov, Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zeynab Giyasova, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Writing – original draft
      Ramil Hasanov, Zeynab Giyasova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Ramil Hasanov, Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Formal Analysis
      Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Supervision
      Laszlo Vasa, Shafa Guliyeva, Zibeyda Shakaraliyeva
    • Visualization
      Zeynab Giyasova