The relationship between bank lending and economic factors in the regions of Kazakhstan
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.19(4).2024.01
-
Article InfoVolume 19 2024, Issue #4, pp. 1-16
- 174 Views
-
39 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Understanding the impact of economic factors on bank lending is crucial in Kazakhstan’s modern economy, characterized by volatile inflation and fluctuations in real wages. This paper aims to investigate the link between bank lending and economic factors such as inflation, real wages, and consumer expenditure in a regional context. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics and the National Bank, covering the period from 2012 to 2022, were used to uncover how economic factors influence bank lending. For the analysis, various economic indicators were integrated through normalization and averaging. Analysis reveals significant regional disparities in real wages and consumer expenditures, which impact the demand for bank credit. The results of the correlation matrix showed that both real wages (P-value < 0.001) and inflation (P-value < 0.001) significantly impact bank lending, with an R² value of 0.998, indicating that the model explains 99.8% of the variation in bank lending. The regression analysis highlights that regions with higher real wages, such as Astana, Almaty, and Atyrau, provide the most favorable conditions for banking sector growth, demonstrated by a strong relationship between wages and bank lending. In contrast, regions with lower wage levels, such as Turkestan and Zhambyl, show a significantly weaker connection (around 0.65), reflecting their lower attractiveness for banking investment and emphasizing the need for policies to address social inequality. The Durbin-Watson test confirmed no autocorrelation in residuals (DW = 1.89), although heteroscedasticity was detected, suggesting the need for further model adjustments. The study emphasizes the importance of developing economic policies that can balance regional development and improve financial stability.
Acknowledgments
This research has been funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant “Development of mechanisms for reducing social inequality and improving the welfare of the population of Kazakhstan” AP19174744).
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E51, E31, J31, R11
-
References36
-
Tables3
-
Figures8
-
- Figure 1. Stages of research
- Figure 2. Average inflation rate for 2012–2022
- Figure 3. Inflation by region 2012–2022
- Figure 4. Nominal and real wages for 2012–2022
- Figure 5. Real wages by region for 2012–2022
- Figure 6. Average consumer expenditures used for consumption for 2012–2022
- Figure 7. Average consumer expenditures used for consumption by region for 2012–2022
- Figure 8. Residuals
-
- Table 1. Correlation matrix
- Table 2. Model coefficients
- Table 3. Durbin-Watson test for autocorrelation
-
- Adkins, L., Cooper, M., & Konings, M. (2021). Class in the 21st century: Asset inflation and the new logic of inequality. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 53(3), 548-572.
- Alazzawi, S., & Hlasny, V. (2019). Disparities in the cost of living changes after a large-scale devaluation: The case of Egypt 2016. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 21(2).
- Ali, A. K., & Asfaw, D. M. (2023). Nexus between inflation, income inequality, and economic growth in Ethiopia. PLOS One, 18(11), e0294454.
- Arundel, R., & Ronald, R. (2021). The false promise of homeownership: Homeowner societies in an era of declining access and rising inequality. Urban Studies, 58(6), 1120-1140.
- Bond, P., & Malikane, C. (2019). Inequality caused by macro-economic policies during overaccumulation crisis. Development Southern Africa, 36(6), 803-820.
- Cardoso, M., Ferreira, C., Leiva, J. M., Nuño, G., Ortiz, Á., Rodrigo, T., & Vazquez, S. (2022). The heterogeneous impact of inflation on households’ balance sheets (Working Paper No. 176). Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
- Carpenter, S., & Demiralp, S. (2012). Money, reserves, and the transmission of monetary policy: Does the money multiplier exist? Journal of macroeconomics, 34(1), 59-75.
- Dilanchiev, A., & Taktakishvili, T. (2021). Macroeconomic determinants of household consumptions in Georgia. Annals of Financial Economics, 16(04), 2150020.
- Doan Van, D. (2020). Money supply and inflation impact on economic growth. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 12(1), 121-136.
- Duca, J. V., Muellbauer, J., & Murphy, A. (2021). What drives house price cycles? International experience and policy issues. Journal of Economic Literature, 59(3), 773-864.
- Dumitrescu, B. A., Enciu, A., Hândoreanu, C. A., Obreja, C., & Blaga, F. (2022). Macroeconomic determinants of household debt in OECD countries. Sustainability, 14(7), 3977.
- Friedman, B. M. (2010). Money Supply. In Durlauf, S. N., & Blume, L. E. (Eds.), Monetary Economics (pp. 250-261). The New Palgrave Economics Collection. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
- Fuller, G. W., Johnston, A., & Regan, A. (2020). Housing prices and wealth inequality in Western Europe. West European Politics, 43(2), 297-320.
- Gibson, J., & Le, T. (2019). Using local expert knowledge to measure prices: Evidence from a survey experiment in Vietnam. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, 92533.
- Gibson, J., Le, T., & Kim, B. (2017). Prices, Engel curves, and time-space deflation: Impacts on poverty and inequality in Vietnam. The World Bank Economic Review, 31(2), 504-530.
- Heider, F., Saidi, F., & Schepens, G. (2021). Banks and negative interest rates. Annual Review of Financial Economics, 13(1), 201-218.
- Iammarino, S., Rodriguez-Pose, A., & Storper, M. (2019). Regional inequality in Europe: Evidence, theory and policy implications. Journal of Economic Geography, 19(2), 273-298.
- Jaravel, X. (2021). Inflation inequality: Measurement, causes, and policy implications. Annual Review of Economics, 13(1), 599-629.
- Kaminsky, G. L., & Reinhart, C. M. (1999). The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems. American Economic Review, 89(3), 473-500.
- Kaplan, G., & Schulhofer-Wohl, S. (2017). Inflation at the household level. Journal of Monetary Economics, 91, 19-38.
- Kenzhegulova, G., Jussibaliyeva, A., & Mussabalina, D. (2024). The role of economic investments in mitigating poverty across urban and rural Kazakhstan. Eurasian Journal of Economic and Business Studies, 68(1), 114-130.
- Kim, H., & Rhee, D. E. (2022). The effects of asset prices on income inequality: Redistribution policy does matter. Economic Modelling, 113, 105899.
- Krugman, P., & Venables, A. (1995). Globalization and the inequality of nations. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 857-880.
- Kuznets, S. (2019). Economic growth and income inequality. In The gap between rich and poor (pp. 25-37). Routledge.
- Le Goix, R., Enault, L. C., Bonneval, L., Le Corre, T., Benites-Gambirazio, E., Boulay, G., Kutz, W., Aveline-Dubach, N., Migozzi, J., & Ysebaert, R. (2021). Housing (in)equity and the spatial dynamics of homeownership in France: A research agenda. Transactions in GIS, 25(1), 62-80.
- Levin, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock market, banks, and economic growth. The American Economic Review, 88(3), 537-558.
- Martin, P., Mayer, T., & Thoenig, M. (2012). The geography of conflicts and regional trade agreements. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(4), 1-35.
- Matin, I., Hulme, D., & Rutherford, S. (2002). Finance for the poor: From microcredit to microfinancial services. Journal of International Development, 14(2), 273-294.
- McLeay, M., Radia, A., & Thomas, R. (2014). Money creation in the modern economy. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Q1, 14-27.
- Milanovic, B. (2005). Half a world: Regional inequality in five great federations. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 10(4), 408-445.
- Nissanke, M., & Ocampo, J. A. (2019). Income inequality in developing countries, past and present. In Nissanke, M., & Ocampo, J. A. (Eds.), The Palgrave handbook of development economics: Critical reflections on globalisation and development (pp. 335-376). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
- Nurgaliyeva, K., Koshkina, O., Zaitenova, N., Kireyeva, A., & Kredina, A. (2024). Relationship between banking infrastructure, innovation, and economic growth in Kazakhstan. Banks and Bank Systems, 19(2), 40-52.
- Oviedo, D. (2021). Making the links between accessibility, social and spatial inequality, and social exclusion: A framework for cities in Latin America. Advances in Transport Policy and Planning, 8, 135-172.
- Petrakos, G., Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Rovolis, A. (2003). Growth, integration, and regional inequality in Europe. Environment and Planning A, 37, 1837-1855.
- Sehrawat, K., Vij, M., & Talan, G. (2021). Understanding the path toward financial well-being: evidence from India. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 638408.
- Shah, M. I., Shuaibu, M. S., AbdulKareem, H. K., Khan, Z., & Abbas, S. (2023). Inequality consequences of natural resources, environmental vulnerability, and monetary-fiscal stability: A global evidence. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(4), 10329-10345.