Impact of money supply and macroeconomic indicators on foreign portfolio investment: Evidence from Vietnam

This study investigates the determinants of foreign portfolio investment in Jordan using series of data covering the period from 2000 to 2016. Eight independent variables were employed. They are: aggregate economic activity, inflation, interest rate differentiation, stock market performance, risk diversification, country creditworthiness, governance, and corruption. The regression results show that good and stable macroeconomic environment attracts foreign investors. In addition, foreign investors prefer to invest in the capital market which provides an opportunity of risk diversification. A country that has enough liquidity to meet its obligation, and has well-governed environment attracts more portfolio investment. The results of the study provide empirical evidence about the factors that have a significant impact on the flow of foreign portfolio investment to Jordan. These factors can be utilized when formulating polices by the specialized authorities who are seeking to attract more portfolio investment.

The article analyzes the influence of inflation on economic growth and substantiates the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the central bank's anti-inflation policy.
In order to determine the limit of inflation, the excess of which has a negative impact on the economic growth, the relationship is analyzed between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate on the basis of IMF statistics using the example of 158 countries. It was determined that in 2010–2017, in the global economy, the 6.0% inflation was the marginal value of the inflation rate, beyond which the economic growth rate declined or slowed down.
Given the inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rates as well as empirical calculations for the period 1996–2017, the threshold for inflation rate for Ukraine at the level of 4.51% was determined based on empirical calculations for the 1996–2017 period. The results indicate that the National Bank of Ukraine set the inflation target above the level of the calculated threshold inflation.
It has also been established that the link between the rates of nominal GDP growth, as opposed to real GDP, and the inflation rate, is more direct and more tight. It is substantiated that to analyze such dependence it is better to use GDP deflator instead of CPI. The results indicate that deflation constrains economic growth much less than inflation.
In order to increase the effectiveness of the central bank’s pro-cyclical monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth, the relationship between the rates of real GDP growth and the indicator characterizing the gap between the growth rates of M3 and inflation, which actually reflects the real money supply dynamics, is determined. The results obtained allowed to conclude that in 2009 and 2014-2017, the artificial “squeezing” of the money supply took place in Ukraine, resulting in a decrease in the level of the economy monetization by 22.0% in 2017 compared to 2013.
It has been proved that in order to minimize the negative impact of inflationary processes on economic growth, the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine should be aimed at eliminating the artificial squeezing of the money supply through a reasonable increase in the economy monetization and the implementation of an effective monetary policy.

VUСA is a chaotic and rapidly changing business environment that, based on the variability, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of the modern world, transforms the approach of banks to the analysis of financial stability. The aim of the paper is to improve tools for monitoring the impact of VUCA-world conditions on the financial stability of banks, namely a model for studying and analyzing the impact of the modern business space “VUCA” on the financial stability of the country's banks. To test the model, the method of constructing regression equations in multifactor regression analysis is used. For this study, data from some Eastern European countries (Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova) were used, and time series data were used for 10 years from 2010 to 2019.
Having considered the definition of “VUCA-world conditions”, the model of modern business space “VUCA” was developed when analyzing the activity of banks in the studied countries. Drivers, consequences, requirements and macroeconomic indicators of the countries’ activities in the VUСA-world conditions are determined. The VUCA-world conditions also consider the study of key macroeconomic indicators that allow building long-term relationships throughout the value chain. The analysis of the studied Eastern European countries showed that with the increase of factors of GDP growth, GNI per capita growth, research and development costs, foreign direct investment, and net inflow of 1%, the effective ratio of bank capital and assets also increases. The assessment, in contrast to the existing ones, makes it possible to consider the impact of the macroeconomic environment of banks on their financial stability.