Modeling Indian Bank Nifty volatility using univariate GARCH models

This study aims to contribute to the emergence of the literature focusing on exploring the factors influencing the financing decision, as well as examining the relationship between the firm size, profitability and firm growth towards the corporate debt. Questions such as how relevant firm size, profitability and firm growth to debt are, quantitatively, had not been fully answered in the business literature. The purpose of this study is to fill this large gap by examining the role of the firm size, profitability, investment and firm growth for the corporate debt. This study tries to examine the determinants of debt in the financial literature which include size, growth, business risk, and profitability in accordance with the capital structure theory, in manufacturing firms in Indonesia. The sample contained financial data from 150 firms for the period 2012–2017. The results showed that the manufacturing firms in Indonesia had high debt levels, especially the size, profitability, firm growth and profitability had proven to be the debt determinants, which also confirmed the Pecking Order Theory. This study also found that the management preference of manufacturing firms in Indonesia for risk was the risk-seeker or risk-neutral ones. This finding implies that the choice of funding sources originating from debt still provided greater returns compared to the capital cost needed due to business uncertainties.

This study examined the response of stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to COVID-19 using an event study approach and the GARCH model. The research sample is the closing price of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) and companies that are members of LQ-45 in the 40-day period before the COVID-19 incident, 1 day during the COVID-19 incident (March 2, 2020) and 10 days after, January 6, 2020 – March 16, 2020. Empirical findings prove that abnormal returns react negatively to COVID-19, JCI volatility fluctuates widely during the COVID-19 event, and the GARCH(1,2) model can be used to assess volatility and predict stock abnormal returns in IDX in market conditions infected with COVID-19. The practical implication of the study’s findings for investors is that the COVID-19 event caused stock price volatility, which affects abnormal returns. Therefore, to face the conditions of uncertainty and increased volatility in the future, several lines of risk management are needed in managing a stock portfolio. In addition, it also opens up opportunities for speculators to profit in an inefficient market environment. This study is based on the empirical literature currently being developed to investigate the phenomenon of stock price volatility behavior during COVID-19 on the IDX. The GARCH model used proves that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock price volatility increases and leads to a decrease in abnormal returns. The empirical findings also validate the efficient market hypothesis theory related to the study of events and the theory of financial behavior related to uncertainty.

The Working Capital Management (WCM) has an important role for the firm’s success or failure, because it directly affects the overall business health of the firm. This study examined the impact of WCM on profitability and shareholders’ wealth using 50 companies listed in different sectors on the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) for the period from 2010 to 2015. This sample represents 47% of the selected sectors of CSE. The profitability of the company is measured using gross operating profit (GOP) and shareholders wealth measured by Tobin’s Q (TQ) ratio. The WCM is measured using five independent variables namely stock holding period (SHP), debtors’ collection period (DCP), creditors’ settlement period (CSP), cash conversion circle (CCC) and current assets ratio (CAR). Further, three additional variables such as firm size (SIZE), leverage (LEV) and earning yield (EY) are employed as controlling variables to capture the impact of other performance of the companies.
The data were analyzed using ordinary least square (OLS) and panel data regression models. These regression models reveal that there is a significant negative relationship between CCC and dependent variables (GOP & TQ). Further, this relationship has been confirmed by the major components of CCC such as SHP, DCP. Firm size also positively and significantly effects on the firm GOP while negatively effects on the TQ. Further, they revealed that there is a significant positive relationship between LEV and TQ. The study finds that the shareholders’ wealth and profitability can be increased through the efficiency of WCM.