How COVID-19 impacts Vietnam’s banking stocks: An event study method
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.16(1).2021.09
-
Article InfoVolume 16 2021 , Issue #1, pp. 92-102
- Cited by
- 2504 Views
-
1798 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The banking industry is one of the major industries in the Vietnamese stock market, so understanding how the industry index reacts to unusual events such as COVID-19’s impact is very important for the development of the Vietnamese stock market. This study examines the response of the banking sector index to three lockdown/blockage announcements to prevent the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam in 2020. Three times of lockdown/blockage: On February 13, 2020, blockade of Son Loi commune, Vinh Phuc province; on March 30, 2020, Vietnam announced the nationwide epidemic of COVID-19 and then nationwide lockdown, and on July 28, 2020, blockade in Da Nang. In the first case, the abnormal returns changed the sign around the notification date indicating that the stock price deviated from its fair value, but accumulating abnormal returns CAR (0;3] and CAR (0; 2] are both positive and statistically significant, which means that investors are more secure when the epidemic area is tightly controlled. The nationwide lockdown was the event that had the strongest impact on the stock price when both AR and CAR were negative and statistically significant before and after the date of the event’s announcement. Nationwide lockdown was the event that had the strongest impact on stock prices as both AR and CAR were negative in the days before and days after the event. This result supports the theory of imperfect substitution. Only AR [2] was positive and statistically significant, showing that the blockade event in Da Nang had a slight impact on the banking sector’s stock price.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)G01, G14, G21, G40
-
References46
-
Tables2
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Abnormal profit (AR) and t-test results for three lockdown times due to COVID-19 in Vietnam
- Table 2. Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and t-test results for three lockdowns due to COVID-19 in Vietnam
-
- Agriseco. (2020). Cập nhật ngành Ngân hàng – Gió đảo chiều trong năm 2020 [Banking sector update – Wind reversal in 2020]. Agriseco Insight Report. (In Vietnamese).
- Alam, M. M., Wei, H., & Wahid, A. N. (2020). COVID-19outbreak and sectoral performance of the Australian stock market: An event study analysis. Australian Economic Papers, 1-14.
- Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8(3), 205-258.
- Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14(1), 3-31.
- D’Amico, S., & King, T. B. (2013). Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(2), 425-448.
- Danang. (2020). From 0:00 on July 28, 2020: Implement blockage according to Directive 16/CT-TTg in 6 districts within 15 days. (In Vietnamese).
- EuroCham. (2020a). Latest EuroCham Business Climate Index (BCI) with focus on COVID-19.
- EuroCham. (2020b). EuroCham BCI Q2 2020: Confidence of European Business Leaders Stabilizing.
- Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21.
- Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy (IESE Business School Working Paper No. WP-1240-E).
- FiinPro (2020b). Vietnamese Corporate Earnings Quality amidst the COVID-19Pandemic. FiinPro Digest Issue, 5.
- FiinPro. (2018). Phương pháp luận tính bộ chỉ số tài chính [FiinPro Ratio Methodology]. (In Vietnamese).
- FiinPro. (2020a). COVID-19Pandemic: Assessing the Impacts from Corporate Financial Data Perspective. FiinPro Digest, 3.
- FiinPro. (2020c). Corporate Earnings Back on Track but Oil & Gas and Travel & Leisure. FiinPro Digest Issue, 6.
- General Statistics Office (GSO). (2020a). Socio-economic situation in the first quarter of 2020.
- General Statistics Office (GSO). (2020b). Socio-economic situation in the second quarter and six months of 2020.
- General Statistics Office (GSO). (2020c). Workshop on assessing impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on Vietnamese corporate sector.
- Hao, L., & Binh, T. (2020). Việt Nam chia sẻ 10 bài học kinh nghiệm phòng, chống và điều trị COVID-19[Vietnam shares 10 lessons learned in COVID-19prevention, control and treatment]. (In Vietnamese).
- He, P., Sun, Y., Zhang, Y., & Li, T. (2020). COVID-19’s impact on stock prices across different sectors – An event study based on the Chinese stock market. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2198-2212.
- Hochiminh Stock Exchange (HSX). (2019). Báo cáo thường niên năm 2019 [Annual report 2019]. (In Vietnamese).
- Hoque, A., Shikha, F. A., Hasanat, M. W., Arif, I., & Hamid, A. B. A. (2020). The effect of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the tourism industry in China. Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies, 3(1), 52-58.
- Kemp, S. (2020). Digital 2020: Vietnam.
- Kiymaz, H., & Berument, H. (2003). The day of the week effect on stock market volatility and volume: International evidence. Review of Financial Economics, 12(4), 363-380.
- Lamy, R. E., & Thompson, G. R. (1986). Penn Square, problem loans, and insolvency risk. Journal of Financial Research, 9(2), 103-111.
- Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 2-19.
- MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
- Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
- Maneenop, S., & Kotcharin, S. (2020). The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach. Journal of Air Transport Management, 89, 101920.
- Ministry of Health’s Portal (MOH). (2020). Hai ca dương tính nCoV đang điều trị tại BV Chợ Rẫy [Two positive nCoV cases are being treated at Cho Ray Hospital]. (In Vietnamese).
- Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI). (2020). Báo cáo: Cùng nỗ lực vượt thử thách, đón thời cơ, phục hồi nền kinh tế. Báo cáo phục vụ Hội nghị Thủ tướng chính phủ với doanh nghiệp. Tháng 5/2020.
- NEU. (2020). Báo cáo đánh giá tác động của COVID-19đến nền kinh tếvà các khuyến nghịchính sách [The report assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and policy incentives]. The National Economics University. April 2020. (In Vietnamese).
- Open Development Vietnam (ODV). (2020). Timeline of COVID-19 and Vietnam policy actions at a glance.
- Pandey, D. K., & Kumari, V. (2021). Event study on the reaction of the developed and emerging stock markets to the 2019-nCoV outbreak. International Review of Economics & Finance, 71, 467-483.
- Phu Hung Securities (PHS). (2020). Cập nhật kết quả kinh doanh: Ngành Ngân hàng [Update business results: Banking industry.]. (In Vietnamese).
- Shleifer, A. (1986). Do demand curves for stocks slope down? The Journal of Finance, 41(3), 579-590.
- Singh, B., Dhall, R., Narang, S., & Rawat, S. (2020). The Outbreak of COVID-19 and Stock Market Responses: An Event Study and Panel Data Analysis for G-20 Countries. Global Business Review, 0972150920957274.
- Sobieralski, J. B. (2020). COVID-19 and airline employment: Insights from historical uncertainty shocks to the industry. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 5, 100-23.
- Straitstimes. (2021). NZ, Vietnam and Taiwan top COVID-19performance index.
- Tam, L. T., Linh, T. T. H., Bao, L. T., Huong, H. T. L., & Linh, D. H. (2020). Tác động của đại dịch COVID-19 đến ngành ngân hàng Việt Nam: thực trạng và một số khuyến nghị. Kinh tế & Phát triển, 276(6), 2-11. (In Vietnamese).
- Thai Binh (2020). Thêm 2 ca bệnh COVID-19, Việt Nam có 417 ca bệnh [ Two more cases of COVID-19, Vietnam had 417 cases] (In Vietnamese).
- Walsh, N. P. (2018). Vietnam’s Daring Golden Bridge Takes a “Hands-On” Approach to Tourism. ArchDaily.
- Wilson, A. (2018). Best foot forward: the world’s most striking pedestrian bridges. The Guardian.
- World Bank. (2019). Finance in Transition: Unlocking Capital Markets for Vietnam’s Future Development. (December). Washington, DC: World Bank.
- World Bank. (2020). What Will Be the New Normal for Vietnam? The Economic Impact of COVID-19. Washington, DC: World Bank.
- World Health Organization (WHO). (2020). Novel coronavirus(2019-ncov) situation report-1-21 January 2020.
- Zing news. (2020). 18 ngày chống dịch COVID-19ở Sơn Lôi [18 days against the COVID-19 epidemic in Son Loi]. (In Vietnamese).