Assessing the stability of the banking system based on fuzzy logic methods
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.15(3).2020.15
-
Article InfoVolume 15 2020, Issue #3, pp. 171-183
- Cited by
- 1004 Views
-
160 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The functioning of the country’s banking system is the basis for ensuring its economic development and stability. The state of the banking system often causes financial crises; therefore, ensuring its stable work is one of the main tasks of monetary policy. Meanwhile, it is important to find approaches to a comprehensive assessment and forecasting of the stability of the banking system that would allow obtaining adequate results.
Based on a sample of data generated for the period from 2008 to the 1st quarter of 2020 with a quarterly breakdown, an integrated stability index of Ukraine’s banking system was estimated. The analysis was based on 23 variables that characterize certain aspects of the functioning of the Ukrainian banking system.
Using the principal component analysis, five factors have been identified that have the greatest impact on ensuring the stability of the banking system. They were used to form an integrated index based on the application of the Mamdani fuzzy logic method. The results obtained adequately reflected the state of stability of the banking system for the analyzed period, which coincided in time with the crisis phenomena occurring in the Ukrainian banking system. The obtained value of the integrated index characterizes the stability of Ukraine’s banking system at the average level, since it depends not only on the internal state of the system, but also on the influence of external factors, both national and international.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E42, E47, E52
-
References38
-
Tables4
-
Figures3
-
- Figure 1. The results of tests for the normality of the analyzed variables (fragment)
- Figure 2. The Mamdani model constructed
- Figure 3. Dynamics of the integrated index of Ukraine’s banking system stability and the polynomial trend calculated by the Mamdani fuzzy logic method
-
- Table 1. Results of factor analysis by the principal component method
- Table A1. Descriptive statistics
- Table B1. Correlation matrix of analyzed variables
- Table C1. Factor scores in each of the 49 quarters
-
- Andries, A. M., Plescau, I., & Stoica, O. (2016). Macroprudential policy and bank risk in central and eastern europe: The role of bank business models. Transformations in Business and Economics, 15(3C), 544-564.
- Barnea, E., Landskroner, Y., & Sokoler, M. (2015). Monetary policy and financial stability in a banking economy: Transmission mechanism and policy tradeoffs. Journal of Financial Stability, 18, 78-90.
- Barra, C., & Zotti, R. (2019). Bank Performance, Financial Stability and Market Concentration: Evidence from Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Banks. Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 90(1), 103-139.
- Berger, W., & Nagase, Y. (2018). Banking Union in Europe: How Much Centralisation Is Needed? Bulletin of Economic Research, 70(1), E50-E67.
- Boloș, M., Bradea, I., Sabău-Popa, C. D., & Ilie, L. (2019). Detecting financial sustainability risk of the assets using MAMDANI fuzzy controller. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(5), 1039-1057.
- Bondarenko, E., Zhuravka, O, Aiyedogbon, J. O., Sunday, O. E., & Andrieieva, V. (2020). Structural modeling of the impact of bank nonperforming loans on the banking sector: the Ukrainian experience. Banks and Bank Systems, 15(2), 67-78.
- Capraru, B., Moise, N. I., Mutu, S., & Petria, N. (2016). Financial stability and concentration: Evidence from emerging Europe. Transformations in Business and Economics, 15(3C), 376-395.
- Dalevska, N., Khobta, V., Kwilinski, A., & Kravchenko, S. (2019). A model for estimating social and economic indicators of sustainable development. Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, 6(4), 1839-1860.
- Drakos, A. A., & Kouretas, G. P. (2015). The conduct of monetary policy in the eurozone before and after the financial crisis. Economic Modelling, 48, 83-92.
- Grytten, O. H., & Koilo, V. (2019). Financial instability, institutional development and economic crisis in Eastern Europe. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(3), 167-181.
- Gulaliyev, M. G., Ashurbayli-Huseynova, N. P., Gubadova, A. A., Ahmedov, B. N., Mammadova, G. M., & Jafarova, R. T. (2019). Stability of the banking sector: Deriving stability indicators and stress-testing. [Stabilność sektora bankowego: Tworzenie wskaźników stabilności i badania wrażliwości]. Polish Journal of Management Studies, 19(2), 182-195.
- Haber, J. A., D’yakonova, I., & Milchakova, A. (2018). Estimation of fintech market in Ukraine in terms of global development of financial and banking systems. Public and Municipal Finance, 7(2), 14-23.
- Hachami, K. E., Alaoui, Y. L., & Tkiouat, M. (2019). Sectorial evaluation of Islamic banking contracts: a fuzzy multi-criteria-decision-making approach. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(2), 370-382.
- Hausenblas, V., Kubicová, I., & Lešanovská, J. (2015). Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach. Economic Systems, 39(1), 156-180.
- Ijaz, S., Hassan, A., Tarazi, A., & Fraz, A. (2020). Linking bank competition, financial stability, and economic growth. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 21(1), 200-221.
- Izquierdo, S. S., & Izquierdo, L. R. (2018). Mamdani fuzzy systems for modelling and simulation: A critical assessment. JASSS, 21(3), 2.
- Klaas, J. A., & Daryakin, A. A. (2016). The indicative model of financial stability management of the banking sector. Academy of Strategic Management Journal, 15(Special Issue 2), 43-49.
- Korbi, F., & Bougatef, K. (2017). Regulatory capital and stability of islamic and conventional banks. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 10(3), 312-330.
- Kozmenko S., Shkolnyk, I., & Bukhtiarova, A. (2016). Dynamics patterns of banks evaluations on the basis of Kohonen self-organizing maps. Banks and Bank Systems, 11(4). 179-192.
- Kremer, M. (2016). Macroeconomic effects of financial stress and the role of monetary policy: A VAR analysis for the euro area. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13(1), 105-138.
- Kuzucu, S., & Kuzucu, N. (2017). Enhancing the risk management functions in banking: Capital allocation and banking regulations. In H. Dinçer and Ü. Hacioğlu (Eds.), Risk Management, Strategic Thinking and Leadership in the Financial Services Industry. Springer, Cham.
- Mamdani, E. H. (1994). Fuzzy control. A misconception of theory and application. IEEE Expert, 9(4), 27-28
- Marfalino, H., Putra, M. R., Guslendra, & Yulia, Y. (2018). Financial control techniques services company with fuzzy Mamdani. International Journal of Engineering and Technology (UAE), 7(4), 11-16.
- Mawardi, W., Mahfudz, M., Laksana, R. D., & Shaferi, I. (2020). Competition and financial effects between islamic and conventional banking. WSEAS Transactions on Business and Economics, 17, 101-111.
- Migiro, S. (2017). Post National Credit Act reckless lending in the South African banking industry. Public and Municipal Finance, 6(2), 27-34.
- Musayev, A., Madatova, S., & Rustamov, S. (2018). Mamdani-type fuzzy inference system for evaluation of tax potential. In L. Zadeh, R. Yager, S. Shahbazova, M. Reformat, and V. Kreinovich (Eds.), Recent Developments and the New Direction in Soft-Computing Foundations and Applications. Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing, vol 361. Springer, Cham.
- Nekhili, R., & Giannopoulos, K. (2020). Brexit and the dependence structure among the G7 bank equity markets. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 231-239.
- Nelson, B. (2018). Financial stability and monetary policy issues associated with digital currencies. Journal of Economics and Business, 100, 76-78.
- Poloz, S. S. (2015). Integrating financial stability into monetary policy. Business Economics, 50(4), 200-205.
- Rashid, A., Yousaf, S., & Khaleequzzaman, M. (2017). Does Islamic banking really strengthen financial stability? empirical evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 10(2), 130-148.
- Rizvi, S. A. R., Narayan, P. K., Sakti, A., & Syarifuddin, F. (2020). Role of Islamic banks in Indonesian banking industry: An empirical exploration. Pacific Basin Finance Journal, 62.
- Salter, A. W., & Tarko, V. (2019). Governing the banking system: An assessment of resilience based on Elinor Ostrom’s design principles. Journal of Institutional Economics, 15(3), 505-519.
- Shkolnik, I. О., Bukhtiarova, A. G., & Semenog, A. U. (2017). Economic modeling of assessment of Ukrainian banking system. Financial and Credit Activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 2(23), 337-344.
- Shkolnyk, I., Kozmenko, S., Polach, J., & Wolanin, E. (2020). State financial security: Comprehensive analysis of its impact factors. Journal of International Studies, 13(2), 291-309.
- Shvets, S. (2020). The golden rule of public finance under active monetary stance: endogenous setting for a developing economy. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 216-230.
- Subbar, H. H., & Vladimirovich, G. A. (2020). Technical ways to develop the financial stability of the banking system in Iraq. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 29(1), 7-10.
- Vučinić, M. (2015). Financial stability – comparative analysis: Montenegro, Serbia and the Netherlands. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 4(1), 63-93.
- Younsi, M., & Nafla, A. (2019). Financial stability, monetary policy, and economic growth: Panel data evidence from developed and developing countries. Journal of the Knowledge Economy, 10(1), 238-260.