The impact of bank credits on non-oil GDP: evidence from Azerbaijan
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/bbs.14(2).2019.10
-
Article InfoVolume 14 2019, Issue #2, pp. 120-127
- Cited by
- 1451 Views
-
234 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
This study explores the relationship between bank credits, exchange rate and non-oil GDP in Azerbaijan, utilizing FMOLS, CCR and DOLS co-integration methods to the data spanning from January 2005 to January 2019. The results from the different co-integration methods are consistent with each other and approve the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Estimation results reveal that there is a positive and statistically significant impact of bank credits and exchange rate on the non-oil GDP in the long run for the Azerbaijani case which are in line with the expectations and with the theoretical findings discussed in theoretical framework section. This finding also indicates that a 1% increase in credit and real exchange rate increases non-oil GDP by 0.51% and 0.56%, respectively. The results of this paper are useful for the policymakers and promote the economic literature for further researches in the case of oil-rich countries.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E44, G21, O16
-
References64
-
Tables3
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. ADF unit root test results
- Table 2. Co-integration test results
- Table 3. Results from different methods
-
- Adeniyi, O., Oyinlola, A., Omisakin, O., &Egwaikhide, F. O. (2015). Financial development and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from threshold modelling. Economic Analysis and Policy, 47, 11-21.
- Akpansung, A. O., &Babalola, S. J. (2011). Banking Sector Credit and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. CBN Journal of Applied Statistics, 2(2), 51-62.
- Aljebrin, M. A. (2018). Non-Oil Trade Openness and Financial Development Impacts on Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 8(5), 251-260.
- Al-Zubi, K., Al-Rjoub, S., & Abu-Mhareb, E. (2006). Financial development and economic growth: A new empirical evidence from the MENA countries, 1989–2001. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(3), 137-150.
- Ananzeh, I. E. (2016). Relationship between bank credit and economic growth: Evidence from Jordan. International Journal of Financial Research, 7(2), 53-63.
- Ang, B. J. (2008). What are the mechanisms linking financial development and economic growth in Malaysia? Economic Modeling, 25(1), 38-53.
- Anyanwu, J. C. (2014). Factors affecting economic growth in Africa: Are there any lessons from China? African Development Review, 26(3), 468-493.
- Banu, I. M. (2013). The Impact of Credit on Economic Growth in the Global Crisis Context. Economics and Finance, 6, 25-30.
- Beck, T. (2011). Finance and oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development? (Unpublished Working Paper). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.
- Ben, J. K., Boujelbène, T., &Helali, K. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from Tunisia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36(5), 883-898.
- Bongini, P., Iwanicz-Drozdowska, M., Smaga, P., &Witkowski, B. (2017). Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Foreign-Owned Banks in CESEE Countries. Sustainability, 9(335), 1-25.
- Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBAR). (2019 a).
- Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBAR). (2019 b).
- Cevik, S., & Rahmati, M. (2013). Searching for the Finance-Growth Nexus in Libya (IMF Working Paper No. WP/13/92). International Monetary Fund.
- Choong, C. K. (2012). Does domestic financial development enhance the linkages between foreign direct investment and economic growth? Empirical Economics, 42(3), 819-834.
- Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic growth? Time series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51, 387-411.
- Dickey, D., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica,49(4), 1057-1072.
- Egert, B. (2009). Dutch disease in former Soviet Union: Witch-hunting? CASE Network Studies and Analyses No. 380, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- Engle R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276.
- Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FIMSA). (2019).
- Gozgor, G., &Gozgor, K. (2013). The Relationship between domestic credit and income: Evidence from Latin America. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 13(1), 89-98.
- Habib, M. M., &Kalamova, M. M. (2007). Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries (Working Paper Series No. 839). European Central Bank.
- Hasanov, F. (2010). The impact of real oil price on real effective exchange rate: The case of Azerbaijan (Discussion Paper Series No. 1041). DIW Berlin German Institute for Economic Research
- Hasanov, F. (2011). Analyzing price level in a booming economy: The case of Azerbaijan. Economics and Educational Research Consortium (Working Paper Series No. 11/02E). Ukraine: Kiev.
- Hasanov, F., &Huseynov, F. (2009). Real exchange rate misalignment in Azerbaijan (Working paper).
- Hasanov, F., &Samadova, I. (2010). The impact of real effective exchange rate on the non-oil export: The case of Azerbaijan (MPRA Paper No. 79559).
- Hasanov, F., & Huseynov, F. (2013). Bank credits and non-oil economic growth: Evidence from Azerbaijan. International Review of Economics and Finance, 27(C), 597-610.
- Humbatova, S., &Hajiyev, N. (2016). External Financing of Azerbaijan’s Agriculture. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Science, 22(6), 875-892.
- Iheanacho, E. (2016). The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria: An ARDL Analysis. Economies, 4(26), 1-12.
- Iqbal, M. Z., Ahmad, N., & Hussain, Z. (2012). Impact of Savings and Credit on Economic Growth in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences, 32(1), 39-48.
- Jalil, A., Feridun, M., & Ma, Y. (2010). Finance-growth nexus in China revisited: New evidence from principal components and ARDL bounds tests. International Review of Economics and Finance, 19(2), 189-195.
- King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance, entrepreneurship, and growth: Theory and evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 513-542.
- Koivu, T., &Sutela, P. (2005). Financial systems in transition: Could small actually be beautiful? Eastern Economic Journal, 31(2), 265-283.
- Korkmaz, S. (2015). Impact of Bank Credits on Economic Growth and Inflation. Journal of Applied Finance & Banking,5(1), 57-69.
- Levine, R. (2002). Bank-based or market-based financial systems: Which is better? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 11(4), 398-428.
- Mackinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Co-integration Test. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618.
- Mahran, H. A. (2012). Financial intermediation and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An empirical analysis, 1968–2010. Modern Economy, 3(5),626-640.
- Mukhtarov, S. (2018). AzerbaycanÖrneğindeDövizKuruKanalınınİşleyişi:AmpirikBirAnaliz. The Sustainable Development of Economy and Administration: Problems And Perspectives (pp. 145-149). Engineering University.
- Mukhtarov, S., Hasan, S., &Mammadov, E. (2016a). ParasalAktarımMekanizmaları: AzerbaycanÖrneği. Journal of Research in Business & Social Science, 5(2), 16-33.
- Mukhtarov, S., Mikayilov, C., &Mammadov, Z. (2016b). Azerbaycan’da Banka KrediKanalınınİşleyişi: AmpirikBirAnaliz. AkademikBakişDergisi, 56, 475-488.
- Mukhtarov, S., Yüksel, S., &Mammadov, E. (2018). Factors that increase credit risk of Azerbaijani banks. Journal of International Studies, 11(2), 63-75.
- Mukhtarov, S., Yüksel, S., Ibadov, E., &Hamidov, H. (2019). The effectiveness of exchange rate channel in Azerbaijan: an empirical analysis. Banks and Bank Systems, 14(1), 111-121.
- Muxtarov, Ş. &Mikayilov, C. (2016). PulSiyasətininTransmissiyaMexanizmlərininAzərbaycanTimsalındaYoxlanması. Journal of Qafqaz University, 4(1), 103-109.
- Nwani C., &Orie, J. B. (2016). Economic growth in oil-exporting countries: Do stock market and banking sector development matter? Evidence from Nigeria. Cogent Economics and Finance, 4(1), 1-11.
- Oluitan, R. (2012). Bank credit and economic growth: The Nigerian experience. International Business and Management, 5(2), 102-110.
- Önder, Z., &Özyıldırım, S. (2013). Role of bank credit on local growth: Do politics and crisis matter? Journal of Financial Stability, 9(1), 13-25.
- Osman, E. G. A. (2014). The Impact of Private Sector Credit on Saudi Arabia Economic Growth (GDP): An Econometrics Model Using (ARDL) Approach to Co-integration. American International Journal of Social Science, 3(6), 109-117.
- Park, J. Y. (1992). Canonical cointegrating regressions. Econometrica,60(1), 119-143.
- Paul, N. (2017). Commercial Banks’ Sectoral Credit Allocation and Growth of Nigeria Economy: An Impact Analysis (1994–2015). International Journal of Arts and Humanities, 6(4), 144-161.
- Phillips, P. C. B., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economics Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
- Phillips, P. C. B., &Ouliaris, S. (1990). Asymptotic properties of residual based tests for co-integration. Econometrica,58(1), 165-193.
- Pistoresi, B., &Venturelli, V. (2015). Credit, venture capital and regional economic growth. Journal of Economics and Finance, 39(4), 742-761.
- Puatwoe, J. T., &Piabuo, S. M. (2017). Financial sector development and economic growth: evidence from Cameroon. Financial Innovation, 3(25), 1-18.
- Quixina, Y., & Almeida, A. (2014) Financial Development and Economic Growth in a Natural Resource Based Economy: Evidence from Angola (FEP Working Papers No. 542).
- Saikkonen, P. (1992). Estimation and testing of cointegrated systems by an autoregressive approximation. Econometric Theory,8(1), 1-27.
- Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2014). Financial development and economic growth in an oil-rich economy: The case of Saudi Arabia. Economic Modelling, 34, 267-278.
- Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. (1993). A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems. Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
- Sturm, M., Gurtner, F., & Alegre, J. G. (2009). Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries: A review of key issues (Occasional paper series No. 104). European Central Bank.
- The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SSCA). (2019). System of national accounts and balance of payments.
- Timsina, N. (2014). Impact of Bank Credit on Economic Growth in Nepal (NRB Working Paper No. 22). Nepal Rastra Bank.
- Uddin, G., Sjö, B., &Shahbaz, M. (2013). The causal nexus between financial development and economic growth in Kenya. Economic Modelling, 35, 701-707.
- World Bank (WB). (2018). World development indicators.
- World Economic Forum (2018). Global Competitiveness Report 2018.
- Yakubu, Z., &Affoi, A. (2014). An analysis of commercial banks’ credit on economic growth in Nigeria. Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, 6(2), 11-15.