Valeriia Melnykova

Machine-building complex is a system-forming element of Ukrainian economy. Functioning of other industries in many respects depends on the results of its activity. Harsh conditions of globalized economic environment and geopolitical changes taking place in the country have negatively affected the state of machine-building enterprises and determined the need for increasing the level of their economic sustainability. As a result of using the systemic-structural approach, which is being developed in the context of the provisions of systemic economic theory, systemic-structural analysis of economic sustainability of several machine-building enterprises was performed. The study was conducted based on a sample of 16 machine-building enterprises and covered the 2015−2016 period. Economic sustainability was analyzed by way of defining in the structure of enterprises, econometric modeling and assessing the state of four subsystems with different space and time localization and further defining the level of mutual balance. The set of individual parameters for modeling every subsystem was determined mainly by way of regrouping of baseline statistical indicators, as well as expert assessments. Using such an approach enabled to determine structural peculiarities of machine-building enterprises development during the analyzed period and their effect on formation of volatility and stability properties, which ensure their sustainability in space and time. During the analyzed period, the determined disproportions of the subsystems in the structure of enterprises had systemic nature. The identification of economic manifestations of the determined disproportions enabled to formally define non-trivial dependencies between the economic phenomena, which took place in machine building, and to define the nature of their influence on the mechanism of economic sustainability formation. The risks affecting every subsystem under study had volatile nature, that’s why the issue of systemic risk management remains relevant.

The construction industry is a crucially important element of the Ukrainian economy, since its development and performance affect other industries. The economic recession consequences and the unforeseen recent events, caused by different types of risks, have adversely affected the construction industry development and necessitated the search for modern methods of risk management. The study is based on a sample of five projects from five construction industry enterprises and covered the period of 2010–2018. A set of project risks, investigated by the group of experts, was analyzed based on fuzzy set theory, and included seven phases of the fuzzy set model construction to assess project risks of construction industry enterprises. Based on the identified elements of a fuzzy set model and a set of significant project risks, a value classifier of significant project risks for construction industry enterprises was developed. This allowed to estimate the current values of project risk indicators and to identify them by levels of their fuzzy subset membership. Besides, a classifier for the quantitative assessment of the total project risks level for investment projects was developed, which allowed estimating the value of the aggregate indicator. In order to improve the existed methodology, the study suggested introducing probabilistic values for the risk of project failure depending on the significance of the overall project risks. Accordingly, the paper identifies the probability of significant project risks simultaneous occurring during the project implementation. However, the higher the likelihood of risk, the higher the probability of investment project failure.