Vadym Posheliuzhnyi

The article examines the impact of the full-scale war initiated by the russian federation on demographic risks in Ukraine. The full-scale war has led to significant changes in the country’s demographic structure, including a sharp decline in the birth rate and an increase in the mortality rate, exacerbating the demographic crisis. The study aims to identify the main demographic risks caused by the war and assess their long-term impact on Ukraine’s socio-economic development. The object of the study is demographic processes in the conditions of the full-scale war. The methodological basis is the demographic analysis of changes in population size, birth, and mortality rates. In 2022, Ukraine’s population was 44.07 million people, but after two years of war, this figure decreased by 15.05%, reaching 37.44 million by early 2024. The birth rate dropped to 5.5‰, and the fertility rate decreased to a critically low level of 0.9 in 2024, one of the lowest rates in the world. Regarding mortality, despite the active hostilities, the mortality rate paradoxically decreased in 2022–2024 compared to previous years (17.1‰ in 2021), likely due to the population reduction caused by mass migration and difficulties in data collection. According to the UN, a total of 22,594 civilians were killed due to military actions, although the actual number of casualties could be much higher. The results indicate a deep demographic crisis that requires urgent government action to stabilize the situation and restore demographic potential. The study's practical significance lies in the potential use of the results to develop government programs to support the birth rate, reduce mortality, and ensure social development in the post-war period.