Sophie X. Kong

This paper examines monthly and daily returns in eleven Asian-Pacific equity markets and the U.S. market, showing that the Asian-Pacific markets systematically follow the returns in the U.S. market (S&P 500 index). For investment managers, the important findings include the fact that each Asian-Pacific market moves differently in response to U.S. market changes over a given time period and the response of most of these markets to changes in the U.S. market is not stable over time. Therefore, in their attempt to diversify a portfolio using individual Asian-Pacific country equities, past correlations and covariances are not necessarily a good predictor of future values, especially for the less developed countries. On average, more developed markets react more strongly to U.S. market changes than do the less developed markets. All markets exhibit asymmetries relative to the U.S. market, where reactions are stronger following down-days than following up-days. Finally, the tests suggest that the Asian-Pacific markets have little or no influence on U.S. market returns.

This study is relevant to investors who wish to diversify their investment portfolio by investing in U.S.-based investment companies that invest in specific Pacific Basin countries to better understand the diversification benefits of such investments. The purpose is to examine the daily returns of selected U.S.-based, country-focused (Pacific Basin) investment companies to see if those returns accurately reflect the changes of the equity indices of the corresponding Pacific Basin market on the following trading day. The method used is that the reactions of daily investment company returns compared to U.S. market daily returns are examined for Japan, South Korea, and Australia for the period 2006–2010. These return reactions are compared to the home-country returns. Next, for the period from 2011 to 2015, the examination is broadened to include U.S.-based investment companies that invest in Taiwan, Singapore, China, and Indonesia. The results show that investment company share prices on “day t” tend to overreact to changes in the S&P 500 on “day t”, relative to “day t+1” changes in the corresponding Pacific Basin market index – often by more than 100%. Finally, the study shows that on “day t+1” these investment company share prices exhibit a reversal. These findings indicate that the diversification benefits of investing in these Pacific Basin investment companies are reduced due to this increased volatility. S&P 500 returns are accompanied by significantly larger returns on the Pacific Basin investment company shares than are actually realized in the home country on the following day, suggesting that the diversification benefits are not being fully realized.