Jaehyung An

The paper aims to analyze the decision making based on expert polls for short-term foreign exchange (FX) forecasting from the viewpoint of the economic behavior theory. The paper offers the assessment of the problem of decision making for forecasting and investment into foreign currency. This study analyzes the relative accuracy of expert polls and forecasts, based on historical data, in the prediction of the most liquid currency pairs (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD) as well as USD/RUB currency pair on time horizons 1, 2, 6, and 12 months. Observation period lasted from January 2018 to January 2019. For EUR/USD (56-62 experts), the polls were more accurate than historical simulations. For GBP/USD (28-70 experts), historical simulations were more accurate than polls. For USD/JPY and USD/RUB, historical simulations are better earlier, while polls are slightly better later. The main conclusion is that EUR/USD historical modeling is usually less accurate on the horizon more than half a year as compared with expert polls for making the decisions about the future exchange rate.

Retracted on August 17, 2020 by the Journal’s owner and Publisher. Type of retraction – plagiarism.
There wasn’t a request for this retraction, but the reason for investigation of plagiarism fact was the Russian Academy of Sciences Committee’s report “Predatory Journals at Scopus and WoS: Translation Plagiarism from Russian Sources”: https://kpfran.ru/wp-content/uploads/plagiarism-by-translation-2.pdf” dated August 12, 2020. The publishing house has familiarized itself with the report. The article by Alexey Mikhaylov, Natalia Sokolinskaya and Evgeniy Lopatin (2019). Asset allocation in equity, fixed-income and cryptocurrency on the base of individual risk sentiment. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 16(2), 171-181. doi:10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.15 was mentioned in this report. It is noted that translation plagiarism was detected in this article - http://wiki.dissernet.org/wsave/IMFI_2019_2_1publ.html.
Due to this the publishing house carried out an investigation on possible cases of plagiarism of all articles of these authors (Alexey Mikhaylov, Natalia Sokolinskaya and Evgeniy Lopatin) published in “Business Perspectives” journals.
When the manuscript "Oil incomes spending in sovereign fund of Norway (GPFG)" was submitted to the Journal for consideration, the authors signed the Cover letter and attested to the fact that their manuscript is an original research and has not been published before. Then, the manuscript was accepted for consideration by the Managing Editor and was tested for plagiarism using the iThenticate and Unicheck programs. Plagiarism was not detected. On August 12, 2020 the Russian Academy of Sciences Committee’s presented the report. Editorial staff decided to re-test all articles of mentioned authors for plagiarism using the iThenticate and Unicheck programs – the programs didn’t show the plagiarism, then the articles were tested for translation plagiarism by the experts of “Business Perspectives” and plagiarism was detected (plagiarism and paraphrases from Russian-language sources).

According to the results of the investigation, the Publisher and owner of the journal decided to retract this article because of plagiarism on August 17, 2020.
The authors were notified of such a decision.