Iryna Melnyk

The article identifies the negative impact of the coronavirus crisis on the expected efficiency of retail, hotel, restaurant and tourism businesses. The aim of the paper is to develop a methodological algorithm for short-term forecasting of opportunities to restore the effective activity of enterprises under quarantine restrictions.
Seasonal component adjustments were performed in the Demetra+ software. Modeling the recovery of effective activity included an assessment of the influence of macroparameters on the dynamics of an enterprise’s sales volumes under pre-quarantine conditions, defining the size of economic losses, determining coefficients of macroindicators’ dynamic influence under conditions of differentiation of quarantine restrictions, constructing a matrix of multiple regression equations, which clearly demonstrates the forecast prospects for restoring the effective activity of enterprises, depending on the quarantine zoning. A situational model of the possible scenario dynamics of enterprises’ trade turnover was built taking into account the quarantine zoning and the logical transformational algorithms of influence on variable system parameters caused by it. The thermometer principle was used as a fuzzy logic tool to consider the specifics of the dynamics of various linguistic variables and bring the forecast model as close as possible to the epidemiological zoning logic. Approbation of the methodology revealed a clear correlation between the severity of quarantine restrictions and the expected growth of enterprise activity amounts. In a more advanced form, the method should be used for short-term macroeconomic forecasting when determining quarantine restrictions and epidemiological zoning.