Hao Fang

This study contributes to the existing literature by combining the multiple methods to clarify the influence of the macroeconomic factors on the real estate investment trust (REIT) index in three Asian countries. The authors, first, use an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test to find that a long-run equilibrium exists between the REIT index and the interest rate, inflation rate, and stock index for China and Singapore. The authors, then, analyze the long- and short-run elasticity of the macroeconomic variables on the REIT index. Finally, using the Granger non-causality test, the authors demonstrate that a unidirectional relationship, in which inflation-rate shifts cause REIT index changes, exists in Japan and Singapore and that a wealth effect, in which stock index movements cause REIT index changes, exists in Singapore. The findings have economic implications for investors seeking to gain from REITs using macroeconomic factors.

Keywords: REITs, macroeconomic factor, ARDL bounds test, ARDL long-run model, error-correction model, Granger non-causality test.
JEL Classification: C22, G11, L85, D53, C58, F14

This study first uses the non-linear co-integration with structural breaks by Gregory and Hansen (1996) to examine whether non-linear co-integration exists between real estate investment trusts (REITs) and corresponding stock markets in the United States and Australia. Second, we employ the smooth transition vector-error correction model (STVECM) including the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to separately explore the adjustment efficiencies of non-linear short-run REIT and corresponding stock return dynamics, as well as respective REIT return dynamics when the long-run disequilibrium occurs. The results show that a structural break co-integration exists between the equity and mortgage REITs and stock markets in the US, between the REITs and stock markets in the Australia and between the REIT markets in both the US and Australia. When there are large positive and negative deviations of STVECM, the adjustment speed of reverting to equilibrium of the S&P 500 index is greater than that of the Mortgage REIT index. However, when there are large positive (negative) deviations of STVECM, the adjustment speed of reverting to equilibrium of the Australian REIT (stock) index is greater, and that of the Australian REIT (US REIT) index is greater. In addition, by using a non-linear Granger causality test by Hiemstra and Jones (1994), we find that credit price effects exist between the US for each type of REIT and stock markets regardless of large positive or negative deviations (or returns) in STVECM (or STVAR). However, there is a feedback effect exists between the REITs and the stock markets in Australia.