What do cross-country Bitcoin holdings tell us? Monetary and institutional discontent vs financial development
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(1).2022.13
-
Article InfoVolume 19 2022, Issue #1, pp. 168-185
- Cited by
- 841 Views
-
306 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Cryptocurrencies show tremendous growth by market capitalization, however Bitcoin cross-country holdings are still in question. The purpose of the paper is to show that inflation discontent with the rule of law failures can explain why residents of different countries are prone to cryptocurrency holdings. The level of financial development is also considered. A hypothesis is proposed for more complex and segmented motives of Bitcoin holdings, tested by the OLS method. Single- and multi-factor regressions with independent variables are used, which can validate cross-country Bitcoin holdings in terms of inflation discontent, quality of institutions and financial development. Regression results confirm the idea of more segmented motives to hold Bitcoins. First, the hedge against inflation motive is rooted in the institutional weakness of central banks, and the regression results show that inflation variables are the most significant. Second, the hedge against institutional risks of asset ownership motive, based on the lack of rule of law and the relevant variable, is best performing among other institutional variables. Third, it is wrong to neglect financial development. However, it only plays a role in interaction with better innovation performance, meaning that crypto investors try not only to diversify their portfolios, but also to profit from involving in a sector with promising technological perspectives. The main takeaway is that institutional factors help explain why people in countries with worsened inflation and institutional performance tend to hold a large fraction of Bitcoins in assets. Obviously, monetary and institutional fragility is underestimated in the general discussion about the nature of digital money.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E40, E42, E44, E58, G11
-
References51
-
Tables2
-
Figures5
-
- Figure 1. Market capitalization for cryptoassets, USD bln
- Figure 2. Bitcoin and US interest rates
- Figure 3. Gold and Bitcoin pricing
- Figure 4. Commodity price index and Bitcoin
- Figure 5. Risk-adjusted returns
-
- Table 1. Single-factor regression analysis results
- Table 2. Multi-factor regression analysis results
-
- AFM. (2018). Investing in cryptos in the Netherlands.
- Aste, T. (2019). Cryptocurrency Market Structure: Connecting Emotions and Economics. Digital Finance, 1, 5-21.
- Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2020). Rise of Central Bank Digital Currency: Drivers, Approaches and Technologies (BIS Working Paper No. 88) (pp. 1-44).
- Bauer, D., & McDermontt, T. (2010). Is Gold a Safe Haven? International Evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34, 1886-1898.
- Baur, D. G., Hong, K., & Lee, A. D. (2018). Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 54(C), 177-189.
- Borio, C. (2019). On Money, Debt, Trust, and Central Banking (BIS Working Paper No. 763).
- Bouri, E., Gupta, R., Tiwari, A. K., & Roubaud, D. (2017). Does Bitcoin hedge global uncertainty? Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-in-quantile regressions. Finance Research Letters, 23(C), 87-95.
- Bouri, E., Molnár, P., Azzi, G., Roubaud, D., & Hagfors, L. I. (2017). On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier? Finance Research Letters, 20(C), 192-198.
- Carstens, A. (2018a). Money in Digital Age: 10 Thoughts (Speech). On Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore, 15 November, 2018.
- Carstens, A. (2018b). Money in Digital Age: What the Role of Central Banks (Speech). On House of Finance of Goethe University, Frankfurt, 6 February, 2018.
- Cifuentes, A. F. (2018). Bitcoin in Troubled Economies: The Potential of Cryptocurrencies in Argentina and Venezuela. Latin American Law Review, 3, 99-116.
- Conover, C., Jensen, G., Johnson, R., & Mercer, J. (2009). Can Precious Metals Make Your Portfolio Shine? The Journal of Investing, 18(1), 75-86.
- Corbet, S., Hou, Y. G., Hu, Y., Larkin, C., & Oxley, L. (2020). Any port in a storm: Cryptocurrency safe-havens during the COVID-19 pandemic. Economics Letters, 194(C).
- Dar, A. B., & Maitra, D. (2017). Is gold a weak or strong hedge and safe haven against stocks? Robust evidences from three major gold-consuming countries. Applied Economics, 49(53), 5491-5503.
- Dar, A., & Mairta, D. (2017). Is Gold a Weak or Strong Hedge and Safe Haven Against Stocks? Robust Evidence from Three Major Gold-consuming Countries. Applied Economics, 49(53), 5491-5503.
- Dyhrberg, A. H. (2016). Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold? Finance Research Letters, 16(C),139-144.
- FCA. (2019). How and Why Consumers Buy Cryptoassets. A Report for the FCA.
- FCA. (2021). Cryptoassets Consumer Research 2021.
- Gomez, G. (2019). Money as an Institution: Rule versus Evolved Practice? Analysis of Multiple Currencies in Argentina. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(2), 1-14.
- Halaburda, H., Haeringer, G., Gans, J. S., & Gandal, N. (2020). The Microeconomics of Cryptocurrencies (NBER Working Papers No. 27477).
- Hayo, B., & Voigt, S. (2008). Inflation, Central Bank Independence and the Legal System. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 164(4), 751-777.
- IMF. (2021). Chapter 2: The Crypto Ecosystem and Financial Stability Challenges. (Global Financial Stability Report. Oct. 2021).
- Keeper, P., & Stasavage, D. (2003). The Limits of Delegation: Veto Players, Central Bank Independence, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy. American Political Science Review, 97(3), 593-621.
- Kocherlakota, N. (1996). Money is Memory (Research Department Staff Report No. 218). Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kocherlakota, N. (1998). Money is Memory. Journal of Economic Theory, 81(2), 232-251.
- Koziuk, V. (2021a). Confidence in digital money: Are central banks more trusted than age is matter? Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(1), 12-32.
- Koziuk, V. (2021b). Willingness to adopt digital currency: whether central bank independence is important. Finance of Ukraine, 3, 7-22.
- Lewis, D. (1969). Convention: a Philosophical Study. Cambridge, MA, USA: Wiley-Blackwell.
- Lewis, D. K. (1970). Convention: A Philosophical Study. The Philosophical Quarterly, 20(80), 286-287.
- Liu, Y., & Tsyvinski, A. (2018). Risks and Returns of Cryptocurrency (NBER Working Papers No. 24877).
- Lyons, R., Viswanath-Natraj, G. (2020). What Keeps Stablecoins Stable? (NBER Working Papers No. 27136).
- Mancini-Griffoli, T., Martinez Peria, M. S., Agur, I., Ari, A., Kiff, J., Popescu, A., & Rochon, C. (2018). Casting Light on Central Bank Digital Currency (IMF Staff Discussion Notes No. 18/08).
- Milgrom, S., & Stokey, N. (1982). Information, Trade and Common Knowledge. Journal of Economic Theory, 26(1), 17-27.
- Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Rey, H. (2020). U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle. The Review of Economic Studies, 87(6), 2754-2776.
- Miranda-Agrippino, S., & Ricco, G. (2021). The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(3), 74-107.
- Moser, P. (1999). Cheks and Balances, and the Supply of Central Bank Independence. European Economic Review, 43(8), 1569-1593.
- Nurbayev, D. (2017). The Rule of Law, Central Bank Independence and Price Stability. Journal of Institutional Economics, 14(4), 659-687.
- OECD. (2019). Cryptoassets in Asia. Consumer attitudes, behaviours and experiences.
- Panos, G. A., & Karkkainen, T. (2019). Financial Literacy and Attitudes to Cryptocurrencies.
- Peterson, T. (2018). Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value. Alternative Investment Analysis Review, 7(2), 9-18.
- Reboredo, J. (2013). Is Gold a Safe Haven or a Hedge for the US Dollar? Implications for Risk Management. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 2665-2676.
- Ritzberger-Grünwald, D., & Stix, H. (2018). How Austrians Bank and Pay in an Increasingly Digitalized world – results from an OeNB Survey. Monetary Policy & the Economy, Q3/18, 52-89.
- Schnabel, I., & Shin, H. S. (2004). Liquidity and Contagion: The Crisis of 1763. Journal of the European Economic Association, 2(6), 1-40.
- Schnabel, I., & Shin, H. S. (2018). Money and Trust: Lessons from the 1620s for Money in the Digital Age (BIS Working Paper No. 698).
- Smales, L. (2019). Bitcoin as a safe haven: Is it even worth considering? Finance Research Letters, 30(C), 385-393.
- Stylianou, K., Spiegelberg, L., Herlihy, M., & Carter, M. (2021). Cryptocurrency Competition and Market Concentration in the Presence of Network Effects. Ledger, 6, 81-101.
- Svirydzenka, K. (2016). Introducing the New Broad-based Index of Financial Development (IMF Working Paper. WP/16/5) (pp. 1-43).
- Van Vliet, B. (2018). An Alternative Model of Metcalfe’s Law for Valuing Bitcoin. Economics Letters, 165, 70-72.
- Vaz, J., & Brown, K. (2020). Money Without Institutions, How Can Cryptocurrencies be Trusted? Paper presented on Financial Engineering and Banking Society Conference. Prague.
- Yermack, D. (2015). Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An economic appraisal. The Handbook of digital currency (NBER Working Papers No. 19747) (pp. 31-43).
- Zulaica O. (2020). What Share for Gold? On the Interaction of Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserve Returns (BIS Working Paper No. 906) (рр. 1-30).