The impact of social aid on poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence from Indonesia
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/pmf.12(2).2023.09
-
Article InfoVolume 12 2023, Issue #2, pp. 104-116
- Cited by
- 288 Views
-
52 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of social aid expenditures on the proportion of poor people in Indonesian provinces, as well as the additional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on poverty levels, with a particular emphasis on the interaction between social assistance spending and the pandemic’s effects. Focusing on 34 provincial governments in Indonesia from 2004 to 2022, the data were analyzed using the two-step GMM system. The results of this study indicate that social aid expenditures negatively and significantly impact the proportion of Indonesia’s population living in poverty. This demonstrates that a rise in social aid expenditures lowers Indonesia’s proportion of the impoverished population. The observed negative impact suggests a real decrease in the poverty rate as social aid expenditures rise. In the meantime, this study discovers a positive and noteworthy impact of the COVID-19 variable. This indicates that compared to the time prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, a larger percentage of Indonesians lived in poverty during the pandemic. Furthermore, social aid expenditures were unable to reduce the number of poor people in Indonesia during the COVID-19 period.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E62, H31, H51
-
References60
-
Tables5
-
Figures0
-
- Table 1. Dependent and independent variables
- Table 2. Descriptive statistics for all variables
- Table 3. Correlation matrix
- Table 4. Social aid expenditure and poor population
- Table 5. Social aids expenditure, COVID-19, and poor population
-
- Achmad, G. N., Yudaruddin, R., Budiman, P. W., Santi, E. N., Suharsono, Purnomo, A. H., & Wahyuningsih, N. (2023). Eco-innovation and SME performance in time of Covid-19 pandemic: Moderating role of environmental collaboration. Emerging Science Journal, 7, 251-263.
- Akresh, R., de Walque, D., & Kazianga, H. (2016). Evidence from a randomized evaluation of the household welfare impacts of conditional and unconditional cash transfers given to mothers or fathers (Policy Research Working Paper No. 7730). Washington, DC: World Bank.
- Anderson, E., d’Orey, M. A. J., Duvendack, M., & Esposito, L. (2018). Does government spending affect income poverty? A meta-regression analysis. World Development, 103, 60-71.
- Arellano, M., & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-component models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-52.
- Arndt, C., Jones, S., & Tarp, F. (2015). Assessing foreign aid’s long-run contribution to growth and development. World Development, 69, 6-18.
- Baird, S., Ferreira, F. H. G., Özler, B., & Woolcock, M. (2014). Conditional, unconditional and everything in between: A systematic review of the effects of cash transfer programmes on schooling outcomes. Journal of Development Effectiveness, 6(1), 1-43.
- Bargain, O., & Aminjonov, U. (2021). Poverty and COVID-19 in Africa and Latin America. World Development, 142, 105422.
- Barrientos, A. (2019). The role of social assistance in reducing poverty and inequality in Asia and the Pacific (ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No. 60). Asian Development Bank.
- Bassey, E. E., Gupta, A., Kapoor, A., & Bansal, A. (2023). COVID-19 and poverty in South America: The mental health implications. International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction, 21, 2954-2960.
- Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
- BPS. (2021). Profil Kemiskinan di Indonesia September 2020. Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia. No. 16/02/Th. XXIV. (In Indonesian).
- Caminada, K., & Goudswaard, K. (2001). International trends in income inequality and social policy. International Tax and Public Finance, 8, 395-415.
- Castro-Leal, F. (1999). The impact of public health spending on poverty and inequality in South Africa (English) (Departmental Working Paper No. 19333). Washington. D.C.: World Bank Group.
- Chong, A., Gradstein, M., & Calderon, C. (2009). Can foreign aid reduce income inequality and poverty? Public Choice, 140(1/2), 59-84.
- Chriest, A., & Niles, M. (2018). The role of community social capital for food security following an extreme weather event. Journal of Rural Studies, 64, 80-90.
- Cuong, N. V. (2013). The impact of social security on household welfare: Evidence from a transition country. European Journal of Development Research, 25, 737-757.
- da Rosa, P. R., Fochezatto, A., Neto, G. B., & Sanguinet, E. R. (2021). Social protection and COVID-19: Evaluation of regional impacts of the Emergency Aid policy in Brazil. EconomiA, 22(3), 239-250.
- De Matteis, A. (2013). Relevance of poverty and governance for aid allocation. Review of Development Finance, 3(2), 51-60.
- Devereux, S. (2002). Can social safety nets reduce chronic poverty? Development Policy Review, 20(5), 657-675.
- Dreze, J., & Khera, R. (2017). Recent social security initiatives in India. World Development, 98, 555-572.
- Farrington, J., & Slater, R. (2006). Introduction: Cash transfers: Panacea for poverty reduction or money down the drain? Development Policy Review, 24(5), 499-511.
- Fernald, L. C., Gertler, P. J., & Neufeld, L. M. (2008). Role of cash in conditional cash transfer programmes for child health, growth, and development: An analysis of Mexico’s Oportunidades. The Lancet, 371(9615), 828-837.
- Firmansyah, A., & Solikin, A. (2019). Who gains from social assistances? RASTRA, PIP, and PKH Programs in Indonesia. Jurnal BPPK: Badan Pendidikan Dan Pelatihan Keuangan, 12(1), 53-70.
- Gomanee, K., Girma, S., & Morrissey, O. (2003). Searching for aid threshold effects (CREDIT Research Paper No. 03/15). Nottingham: Centre for Research in Economic Development and International Trade.
- Gomanee, K., Girma, S., & Morrissey, P. (2005). Aid, public spending and human welfare: Evidence from quantile regressions. Journal of International Development, 17(3), 299-309.
- Gungor, M. (2021). COVID-19 aspect of poverty: Children living and working on the street. In S. Grima, O. Sirkeci, & K. Elbeyoğlu (Eds.), A New Social Street Economy: An Effect of The COVID-19 Pandemic (pp. 217-229). Emerald Publishing Limited.
- Gupta, S., Verhoeven, M., & Tiongson, E. (2002). The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies. European Journal of Political Economy, 18(4), 717-737.
- Ha, T. (2023). The effects of COVID-19 and response measures on poverty, household income and household consumption expenditure in South Korea. Journal of Economic Studies, 50(1), 3-17.
- Handayani, S., Suharno, S. S., & Badriah, L. S. (2022). The effectiveness of local government spending on poverty rate reduction in Central Java, Indonesia. Eko-Regional, 17(1), 1-8.
- He, L., & Sato, H. (2013). Income redistribution in urban China by social security system: An empirical analysis based on annual and life-time income. Contemporary Economics Policy, 31(2), 314-331.
- Kheir, V. B. (2019). The nexus between financial development and poverty reduction in Egypt. Review of Economics and Political Science, 3(2), 40-55.
- Kiendrebeogo, Y., Assimaidou, K., & Tall, A. (2017). Social protection for poverty reduction in times of crisis. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(6), 1163-1183.
- Kochaniak, K., Ulman, P., & Zajkowski, R. (2023). Effectiveness of COVID-19 state aid for microenterprises in Poland. International Review of Economics & Finance, 86, 483-497.
- Lestari, D., Zainurossalamia, ZA S., Maria, S., Wardhani, W., & Yudaruddin, R. (2021). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on performance of small enterprises that are e-commerce adopters and non-adopters. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 19(3), 467-477.
- Lloyd-Sherlock, P. (2006). Simple transfers, complex outcomes: The impacts of pensions on poor households in Brazil. Development and Change, 37(5), 969-995.
- Luo, R. F., Liu, C. F., Gao, J. J., Wang, T. Y., Zhi, H. Y., Shi, P. F., & Huang, J. K. (2020). Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on rural poverty and policy responses in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 19(12), 2946-2964.
- Lustig, N., Pessino, C., & Scott, J. (2014). The impact of taxes and social spending on inequality and poverty in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay: Introduction to the special issue. Public Finance Review, 42(3), 287-303.
- Mahler, V., & Jesuit, D. (2004). State redistribution in comparative perspective: A cross-national analysis of the developed countries (LIS Working Paper Series. No. 392). Luxembourg: Luxembourg Income Study (LIS).
- Maria, S., Yudaruddin, R., & Yudaruddin, Y. A. (2022). The impact of COVID-19 on bank stability: Do bank size and ownership matter? Banks and Bank Systems, 17(2), 124-137.
- Meehan, P., & Shanks, T. (2023). Poverty reduction is not the whole story: The COVID-19 pandemic response in relation to material hardship. Journal of Family and Economic Issues.
- Menta, G. (2021). Poverty in the COVID-19 era: Real-time data analysis on five European countries. In S. Bandyopadhyay (Ed.), Research on Economic Inequality: Poverty, Inequality and Shocks (pp. 209-247). Emerald Publishing Limited.
- Mosley, P., Hudson, J., & Verschoor, A. (2004). Aid, poverty and the “New Conditionality”. The Economic Journal, 114(496), 217-243.
- Musviyanti, Khairin, F. N., Bone, H., Syakura, M. A., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022). Structure of local government budgets and local fiscal autonomy: Evidence from Indonesia. Public and Municipal Finance, 11(1), 79-89.
- Nazareno, L., & de Castro Galvao, J. (2023). The impact of conditional cash transfers on poverty, inequality, and employment during COVID-19: A case study from Brazil. Population Research and Policy Review, 42, 22.
- Pham, T. H., & Riedel, J. (2019). Impacts of the sectoral composition of growth on poverty reduction in Vietnam. Journal of Economics and Development, 21(2), 213-222.
- Plotnick, R. D. (1979). Social welfare expenditures: How much help for the poor? Policy Analysis, 5(3), 271-289.
- Reynolds, M. M., & Avendano, M. (2018). Social policy expenditures and life expectancy in high-income countries. American Journal of Preventive Medicine, 54(1), 72-79.
- Riadi, S. S., Hadjaat, M., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022a). Bank concentration and bank stability during the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging Science Journal, 6, 262-274.
- Riadi, S. S., Heksarini, A., Lestari, D., Maria, S., Zainurossalamia, S., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022b). The benefits of e-commerce before and during the Covid-19 pandemic for small enterprises in Indonesia. WSEAS Transactions on Environment and Development, 18, 69-79.
- Robertson, L., Mushati, P., Eaton, J. W., Dumba, L., Mavise, G., Makoni, J., Schumacher, C., Crea, T., Monasch, R., Sherr, L., Garnett, G. P., Nyamukapa, C., & Gregson, S. (2013). Effects of unconditional and conditional transfers on child health and development in Zimbabwe: A cluster-randomized trial. The Lancet, 381(9874), 1283-1292.
- Rönkkö, R., Rutherford, S., & Sen, K. (2022). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the poor: Insights from the Hrishipara diaries. World Development, 149, 105689.
- Suryahadi, A., Izzati, R. A., & Suryadarma, D. (2020). Estimating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on poverty. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(2), 175-192.
- Topcu, E. (2022). The impact of COVID-19 on regional poverty: Evidence from Latin America. In M. H. Dehghani, R. R. Karri, & S. Roy (Eds.), COVID-19 and the Sustainable Development Goals (pp. 399-412). Elsevier.
- Valensisi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind? The European Journal of Development Research, 32, 1535-1557.
- Yu, L.-R., & Li, X.-Y. (2021). The effects of social security expenditure on reducing income inequality and rural poverty in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 20(4), 1060-1067.
- Yudaruddin, R. (2023a). Bank lending during the COVID-19 pandemic: Do alliances and digital strategies matter? Managerial Finance, 49(7), 1221-1238.
- Yudaruddin, R. (2023b). Government policy response to COVID-19 and bank performance: A comparison between Islamic and conventional banks. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 14(6), 952-972.
- Yusri, A. (2022). Does government expenditure affect poverty, health, and education? Evidence from Aceh, Indonesia. Jurnal Perencanaan Pembangunan: The Indonesian Journal of Development Planning, 6(1), 1-20.
- Zainurossalamia, S. ZA, Martiyanti, D., Achmad, G. N., Lesmana, D., & Yudaruddin, R. (2022). Impact of operational activities on customer satisfaction in cafes and restaurants: A mediating role of infrastructural elements. Innovative Marketing, 18(4), 13-24.
- Zwane, T., Biyase, M., & Rooderick, S. (2022). Assessing the impact of social grants on household welfare using propensity score matching approach. International Journal of Development Issues.