The impact of fiscal councils on the budgetary consolidation

The article examines the current tendencies of the government indebtedness in the world. It proves the rapid growth of the government debt in the different countries around the world after the 2008–2009 financial crisis and analyzes the reasons for government debt increase in particular countries and its consequences. The study is devoted to the research of the government debt in developed and developing countries. Particular attention is paid to the government debt of Japan, the USA, the European Union countries. In the article, the government debt of Ukraine, its tendencies, and consequences for the economy are analyzed. The state borrowings in Ukraine are often used for financing the servicing and payment of the existing debt. Government debt can be an important investment source and used for the development of the economies. But in the conditions of its rapid and unlimited growth, government indebtedness can be a burden for the economy.

Nowadays one of the relevant problems of economic development of Ukraine is the excessive increasing of the public debt that has a number of negative consequences for the financial system of the country. The article is devoted to the research of state’s debt sustainability concept. Special attention is paid to the development of an effective system of debt sustainability management. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases of the state’s debt sustainability, investigate scientific and methodological approaches to its management, analyze the public debt and debt sustainability of Ukraine. In order to achieve that goal, the following scientific methods were used: analysis and generalization, decomposition analysis, comparison and compilation. The authors analyzed the structure of the debt sustainability management system: objects, subjects, key principles, objectives, methods, instruments, etc. The list of key indicators of debt sustainability was substantiated and the authors compared their normative values in Ukraine and in world practice. Besides, the state and structure of public debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP were scrutinized. The obtained results proved the debt crisis deepening in Ukraine.

The paper addresses an estimation of public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio in the developing economy encountered with an excessive public debt impact on macro dynamics. An active field of the study focuses on the internal public debt due to a recent tendency of external share substitution in the developing economies. Among a lot of publications dedicated to the public debt, the study object usually focuses on an array of countries using the same method to evaluate the threshold ratio. Analyzing behavior specifics concerning economy in crises and thereafter, there is a need to carry out the public debt study for the particular economy as well. The research suggests an algorithm for determining internal public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio by applying a scenario modeling tool. Taking into account a growing burden of public debt in Ukraine, the authors have elaborated an econometric macro model operated through fiscal-monetary interaction. The model was used to evaluate the internal public debt-to-GDP threshold ratio in Ukraine. The threshold ratio proves to be 40% of GDP, while the similar result for the total amount of public borrowings is about twice as high. Although the given ratio remained below the estimated threshold as of the mid-term of 2017, a space degree is small and going to collapse soon. Considering sluggish economic recovery following the last recession took place in 2014–2015, Ukraine will face the challenge of reopening the agenda of growing debt burden in a near future.