The effects of future climate change shocks on macroeconomic aggregates via agricultural production in Tunisia: A dynamic general equilibrium analysis
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Author(s)Oussama ZouabiLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8397-6396
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.12(1).2021.05
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Article InfoVolume 12 2021, Issue #1, pp. 53-63
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172 Downloads
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This study aims to analyze the direct and indirect impact of future climate changes on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. A dynamic general equilibrium model of the Tunisian economy has been developed, which takes into account the effects of future climate shocks from 2020 to 2050 to assess the impact of future climate change on agricultural production and macroeconomic aggregates. The model is used to simulate various scenarios.
The results of the climate shock simulations clearly show that long-term citrus fruits production is showing remarkable declines in the most citrus-producing governorates following a significant drop in water level in dams and level of groundwater table. In turn, cereals are the plants most affected by the long-term reduction in rainfall. As for the olive production, it would show a decline reaching –1.263% between 2020 and 2024 in the level of its production following reduction in rainfall. From a macro-economic point of view, climate change will result in the short- and long-term in a deterioration of certain quantities, notably household consumption, entrepreneurial investment, and the unemployment rate, which decreases by –0.139% between 2031 and 2040. These results underline the need for a long-term agricultural policy to reduce or limit the economic and social consequences of climate change and support economic development.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)Q54, O13, F43, D58
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References23
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Tables2
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Figures0
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- Table 1. Sector results
- Table 2. Macroeconomic results
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Impact on poverty and income inequality in Malaysia’s economic growth
Rabiul Islam 
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Ahmad Bashawir Abdul Ghani ,
Irwanshah Zainal Abidin ,
Jeya Malar Rayaiappan
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.15(1).2017.05
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Anthony Olugbenga Adaramola ,
Oluwabunmi Dada
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.17(2).2020.01
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 17, 2020 Issue #2 pp. 1-13 Views: 9148 Downloads: 5477 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯIn an attempt to examine the influence of inflation on the growth prospects of the Nigerian economy, the study employs the autoregressive distributed lag on the selected variables, i.e. real gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, degree of economy`s openness, money supply, and government consumption expenditures for the period 1980–2018. The study findings indicate that inflation and real exchange rate exert a significant negative impact on economic growth, while interest rate and money supply indicate a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Other variables in the model depict no influence on the economic growth of Nigeria. The causality result shows the unidirectional relationships between interest rate, exchange rate, government consumption expenditures and gross domestic product. However, inflation and the degree of openness show no causal relationship with gross domestic product. As a result, the study recommends that a more pragmatic effort is needed by the monetary authorities to target the inflation vigorously to prevent its adverse effect by ensuring a tolerable rate that would stimulate the economic growth of Nigeria.
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Formalization of the impact of imbalances in the movement of financial resources on economic growth of countries in Central and Eastern Europe
Serhiy Kozmenko ,
Maxim Korneyev
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/afc.01(1).2017.06
Accounting and Financial Control Volume 1, 2017 Issue #1 pp. 48-58 Views: 7878 Downloads: 1375 TO CITEThe article deals with the impact of financialization on economic growth in countries of Central and Eastern Europe. It determinesthe impact of imbalances in the movement of financial resources caused by financialization on economic growth of these countries. It proves that the implementation of measures aimed at increasing the openness of the economy and maintaining solvent demand have a positive impact on economic growth of the surveyed countries in the long run. It also proves the importance of developing a set of measures of strategic nature regulating imbalances in the movement of financial resources caused by financialization.
