Problems of estimating the neutral interest rate: conclusions for Ukraine
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(3).2021.20
-
Article InfoVolume 18 2021, Issue #3, pp. 214-228
- Cited by
- 1829 Views
-
336 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Estimation of the actual and projected level of the neutral interest rate is a central issue in the application of modern monetary theory in the practical context of monetary policy. Views on the role and key drivers of neutral interest rates have evolved over time in parallel with the development of the theory of capital, money, credit and economic growth. Therefore, the paper is aimed at generalizing methods for assessing the neutral interest rate for open economies with emerging markets and formulating recommendations for improving the existing methodological tools for estimating the neutral rate in Ukraine. To achieve this goal, theoretical sources, advisory and research materials of international organizations, central banks and statistical databases were analyzed. It is established that the key issue of the current discussion about the tools for estimating the level of neutral interest rates in countries with small open economies is the relationship between the effects of external and internal factors. The paper identifies the advantages and disadvantages of the method for estimating the level of the neutral rate on the basis of uncovered interest parity rule used by the National Bank of Ukraine within the semi-structural macroeconomic model. The expediency of methodological tools introducing into the practice of monetary regulation of Ukraine for estimating the neutral rate of Ukraine based on the Laubach-Williams approach has been proved with adaptation to the conditions of an open economy, which will consider сinternal factors of economic development – changes in potential GDP and savings.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)E43, E52, Е58
-
References42
-
Tables2
-
Figures3
-
- Figure 1. Neutral interest rate and domestic demand in Ukraine
- Figure 2. Change in the neutral interest rate and its factors in Ukraine (first quarter of 2021 compared to 2019)
- Figure 3. NBU key policy rate and interest rates on deposits, % per annum
-
- Table 1. Matrix of the type of monetary policy
- Table 2. Some factors of changes in the neutral interest rate and the type of their influence
-
- Bank of Canada. (2020). The neutral rate in Canada: 2020 update, 2020–24.
- Barsky, R., Justiniano, A., & Melosi, L. (2014). The Natural Rate of Interest and Its Usefulness for Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, 104(5), 37-43.
- Basdevant, O., Bjorksten, N., & Karagedikli, O. (2004). Estimating a Time Varying Neutral Real Interest Rate for New Zealand (Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, 2004/01).
- Behera, H., Pattanaik, S., & Kavediya, R. (2017). Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy Under Uncertainty. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(3), 482-498.
- Berg, A., Karam, P., & Laxton, D. (2006). Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis – A How-To Guide (IMF Working Paper, 06/81).
- Bernanke, B. (2005). The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit. The Federal Reserve Board.
- Caballero, R., & Farhi, E. (2014). On the Role of Safe Asset Shortages in Secular Stagnation.
- Carrillo, J., Elizondo, R., Rodríguez-Pérez, C., & Roldán-Peña, J. (2017). What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy? (Banco de México Working Papers, 2018-22).
- Central Bank of the Russian Federation (2020). Monetary Policy Report, July 2020.
- Chong, Y., Jordà, O., & Taylor, A. (2012). The Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis: Real Exchange Rates and their Long-run Equilibrium. International Economic Review, 53(2), 609-33.
- Clarida, R., Gali J., & Gertler M. (2002). A Simple Framework for International Monetary Policy Analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(5), 879-904.
- Del Negro, M., Giannoni, M., & Schorfheide, F. (2015). Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(1), 168-196.
- Duarte, J. (2010). Measuring the Natural Interest Rate in Brazil. Institute of Brazilian Business and Public Management Issues. Spring 2010.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York. (n.d.). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest.
- Fonseca, M., & Muinhos, M. (2016). Equilibrium Interest Rates in Brazil: a Laubach and Williams Approach,
- Giammarioli, N., & Valla, N. (2004). The natural real interest rate and monetary policy: a review. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(5), 641-660.
- Grafe, C., Grut, S., & Rigon, L. (2018). Neutral Interest Rates in CEEMEA-Moving in Tandem with Global Factors. Money and Finance, 77(1), 6-25.
- Grui, A., Lepushynskyi, V. & Nikolaychuk, S. (2018). A Neutral Real Interest Rate in the Case of a Small Open Economy: Application to Ukraine. Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, 243, 4-20.
- Hledik, T., & Vlcek, J. (2018). Quantifying the Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy – The Czech Case (Working Paper Series of the Czech National Bank, 7/218).
- Holston, K, Laubach, T., & Williams, J. (2020). Adapting the Laubach and Williams and Holston, Laubach, and Williams Models to the COVID-19 Pandemic.
- Holston, K., Laubach, T., & Williams, J. (2016). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants (Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2016-073).
- Humala, A., & Briones, G. (2009). Estimation of a Time Varying Natural Interest Rate for Peru (Serie de Documentos de Trabajo Working Paper series, 2009-009).
- International Monetary Fund. (2021). World Economic Outlook Database, April 2021.
- Kuhn, L., Ruch, F., & Steinbach, R. (2019). Reaching for the (r)-stars: estimating South Africa’s neutral real interest rate (South African Reserve Bank Working Paper Series, 19/01).
- Laubach, T. & Williams, J. (2003). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1063-1070.
- 26. Laubach, T. (2009). New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt. Journal of the European Economic Association, 7(4), 858-885.
- Laubach, T., & Williams, J. (2016). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux. Business Economics, 51(2), 57-67.
- Lubik T. & Matthes C. (2015). Calculating the Natural Rate of Interest: A Comparison of Two Alternative Approaches (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Brief, 15-10).
- Magud, N., & Tsounta, E. (2012). To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question in Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America (IMF Working Paper, 12/243).
- National Bank of Ukraine. (2021). Inflation Report, April 2021.
- National Bank of Ukraine. (n.d.). Official web-site.
- Ogunç, F., & Batmaz, I. (2011). Estimating the Neutral Real Interest Rate in an Emerging Market Economy. Applied Economics, 43(6), 683-693.
- Perrelli, R., & Roache, S. (2014). Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate – The Case of Brazil (IMF Working Paper, 14/84).
- Rachel, L. & Smith, T. (2015). Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate (Bank of England, Staff Working Paper, No. 571).
- 35. Ramsey, F. (1928). A Mathematical Theory of Saving. The Economic Journal, 38(152), 543-559.
- Ruch, F. (2021). Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 9711).
- State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (n.d.). Official web-site. (In Ukrainian).
- Stefanski, M. (2018). Natural Rate of Interest in a Small Open Economy with Application to CEE Countries.
- Wicksell, K. ([1898] 2007). Interest and Prices (240 p.). The Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, Alabama.
- Wicksell, K. (1907). The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices. The Economic Journal, 17(66), 213-220.
- Woodford, M. (2003). Interest and prices: Foundations of a theory of monetary policy (808 p.). Princeton, N.J.; Woodstock, Oxfordshire: Princeton University Press.
- Zhu, F. (2016). Understanding the changing equilibrium real interest rates in Asia-Pacific. BIS Working Papers, 567.