Multi-model tourist forecasting: case study of Kurdistan Region of Iraq
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Author(s)Azad RasulLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5141-0577
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Amanj Ahmad Hamdamin DewanaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3597-3422
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Saadaldeen Muhammad Nuri SaedLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1914-8406
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/tt.2(1).2019.04
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Article InfoVolume 2 2019, Issue #1, pp. 24-34
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154 Downloads
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The tourism industry has been one of the leading service industries in the global economy in recent years and the number of international tourism in 2018 reached 1.4 billion. The goal of the research is to evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism data and predict the number of tourists during 2019 and 2022. Performance of 15 prediction models (i.e. Local linear structural, Naïve, Holt, Random walk, ARIMA) was compared. Based on error measurements matrix (i.e. RMSE, MAE, MAPE, MASE), the most accurate method was selected to forecast the total number of tourists from 2019 to 2022 to Kurdistan Region (KR), then forecasts were performed for each governorate in KR. The results show that among 15 examined models of tourist forecasting in KR, Local linear structural and ARIMA (7,3,0) model performed best. The number of tourists to KR and each governorate in KR is predicted to increase by most experimented models, especially those which demonstrated higher accuracy. Generally, the number of tourist to KR predicted by ARIMA (7,3,0) is a lot bigger than Local linear structure. Linear structural predicted the number increase to 3,137,618 and 3,462,348 in 2020 and 2022, respectively, while ARIMA (7,3,0) predicted the number of tourists to KR to increase rapidly to 3,748,416 and 8,681,398 in 2020 and 2022.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)L83, C53
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References32
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Tables8
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Figures4
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- Figure 1. Total tourist to KR (2007–2018) along with 4-year forecasts and 80% and 95% prediction intervals
- Figure 2. Total tourist to Erbil Governorate (2007–2018) along with 4-year forecasts and 80% and 95% prediction intervals
- Figure 3. Total tourist to Sulaymaniyah Governorate (2007–2018) along with 4-year forecasts and 80% and 95% prediction intervals
- Figure 4. Total tourist to Duhok Governorate (2007–2018) along with 4-year forecasts and 80% and 95% prediction intervals
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- Table 1. Accuracy assessment of tourist forecasting models
- Table 2. Forecasted number of tourists to KR from Local linear structural
- Table 3. Forecasted number of tourists to KR from ARIMA (7,3,0)
- Table 4. Forecasted number of tourists to Erbil Governorate from Local linear structural model
- Table 5. Forecasted number of tourists to Erbil Governorate from ARIMA (7,3,0)
- Table 6. Forecasted number of tourists to Sulaymaniyah Governorate from Local linear structural model
- Table 7. Forecasted number of tourists to Duhok Governorate from Local linear structural model
- Table 8. Forecasted number of tourists to Duhok Governorate from ARIMA (7,3,1)
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Current trends in global demographic processes
Sergii Sardak ,
Maxim Korneyev ,
Vladimir Dzhyndzhoian ,
Tatyana Fedotova ,
Olha Tryfonova
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(1).2018.05
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 16, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 48-57 Views: 3620 Downloads: 1062 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯCurrent local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development.
The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st century.
The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population. -
Travel and tourism: growth potentials and contribution to the GDP of Saudi Arabia
Anis Ali
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(1).2018.39
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 16, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 417-427 Views: 2343 Downloads: 400 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯSaudi Arabia is well known in the world for the holy places Makkah and Madinah. Hajjis and visitors come to perform hajj and Umrah every year in Makkah and Madinah from all around the world. Hajj and Umrah visits play a vital role in the inbound tourism of Saudi Arabia. The tourism revenue of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is increasing absolutely but losing its contribution to the GDP proportionately. So, this paper tries to find out the economic activities of all components of tourism sector which are responsible for the negative trend. It also explains the relationships and variability of tourism revenues and expenditures with GDP and offers suggestions to enhance revenue of tourism sector. This study is based upon secondary data obtained from the website of SAMA (Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority) and General Authority for Statistics of Saudi Arabia. In tourism sector of Saudi Arabia, the increasing trend of expenditures of some economic activities is more than its revenue. The increasing trend of expenditures comparatively its revenues lowering contribution of tourism towards GDP. To improve the level of tourism revenue, government has to provide world class facilities and develop new tourist spots and allow the visitors to visit such places according to the Shariah and Kingdom rules. Government has to focus on developing passenger rail transport and other means of transport to connect all the tourist spots to provide easy conveyance, and on improving and developing tourism sector by helping the government and private organizations that are engaged directly or indirectly in providing services to the domestic and inbound tourists to assure more contribution to GDP.
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Measuring the inclusiveness of international financing to tourism in Latin America and the Caribbean
Isabel Carrillo-Hidalgo ,
Juan Ignacio Pulido-Fernández
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(3).2018.02
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 15, 2018 Issue #3 pp. 15-34 Views: 2191 Downloads: 210 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯGlobally, tourism has been identified as a means of poverty reduction and development, and as a means of encouragement of females, minorities and small businesses to better engage in the mainstream of economic life. This paper examines whether the international and governmental financial support, grated by international financial institutions, is effectively achieving these aims in Latin America and the Caribbean. A series of indices are established in the paper that assess the extent to which such funding includes non-corporate enterprise while also considering the volume and nature of such funding. It is concluded that the goals of inclusiveness are not being met.
