Models on providing food security: case of Ukraine

The food safety of the region is a fundamental foundation of the country’s economic security and one of the most important prerequisites for sustainable development. Unfortunately, the problems of ensuring food security of the regions of Ukraine are not only resolved, but also ultimately aggravated, which negatively affects the quality of life of the population and the development of human potential. An important step in solving the problem of physical and economic food availability to all population is developing a regional food safety strategy. In this regard, the purpose of the article is to develop methodological tools for modeling the region’s food security strategy taking into account the peculiarities of its development and existing production and resource potential. The authors explained the concept of “food security strategy”, “food safety potential of the region” and methods for assessing its main components. The author’s model of the food security strategy creation was developed and implemented on the example of the Ukrainian Black Sea region. This model can be used to monitor the situation with food provision, to model the impact on the state of the food supply of individual strategic decisions and to determine the causes of deviations and growth reserves in any region irrespective of its size or administrative status.

This paper explores some Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs – 2 and 12) in agriculture for the Czech Republic and Ukraine. The idea is to find out best practices in implementing SDGs 2 and 12 within the responsible investment framework. For these purposes, benchmarking (comparative analysis) is used. Using data over the period of 2017–2020, a general comparative review of global and national targets of SDGs 2 and 12 in Ukraine and the Czech Republic is provided. The results justify the merely incorporation and compliance of these targets at the national and global levels. The identified problems in achieving SDG 2 and SDG 12 are common for Ukraine and the Czech Republic and relate to unequal access to investment and financial resources. Recommendations and solutions to the most important problems based on the responsible investment instruments are proposed in this paper. The research findings can be useful for regulators (both in agriculture and in the financial market), companies and a wide group of other stakeholders in promoting responsible investment to make more comprehensive progress towards SDG 2 and 12 in Czech Republic and Ukraine by 2030.

Acknowledgment
Authors are grateful to the Czech government for the support provided by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic, which allowed this scientific cooperation to start within the project “AgriSciences Platform for Scientific Enhancement of HEIs in Ukraine”.

Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.
The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.