Modeling of structural and temporal characteristics in the corporate securities market of Ukraine

The government bond (GB) has become the most attractive investment portfolio option, even though many macroeconomic factors affect the bond yield. This paper aims to investigate the determining factor of local currency government bond yield by considering the inflation rate, credit default swap, stock market index, exchange rate, and volatility index. This study used 240 data panel from the Bloomberg stock market in the form of data panel covering Southeast developing countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines, for five years or sixty months from January 2015 to December 2019. Data analysis used recursive models and multivariate regression techniques using EViews software. The random effect model results revealed that change in the foreign exchange rate and volatility indexes affected, partially and simultaneously, the changes in the stock market index. The result also showed that changes in the stock market index, inflation rate, and credit default swap affected, partially and simultaneously, government bond yield changes. These results suggest that the government bond yield could be managed by controlling volatility index, foreign exchange rate, stock market index, inflation rates, and credit default swaps. This finding could provide an insight into the policymaker and fiscal authority on managing the risk of government bonds under control during high volatility or even making it reasonably lower. This result could contribute to the current research in the field of financial management.

Acknowledgment
It is the author’s pleasure to thank Muhammad Aulia SE MSc CSA® from the Ministry of Finance of Republic Indonesia, for his invaluable contribution to encourage this study and also to share the data required for this paper. He also delivers essential insights into improving the quality of this work. This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

The stock market represents complex systems where multiple agents interact. The complexity of the environment in the financial markets in general has encouraged the use of modeling by multi-agent platforms and particularly in the case of the stock market.
In this paper, an agent-based simulation model is proposed to study the behavior of the volume of market transactions. The model is based on the case of a single asset and three types of investor agents. Each investor can be a zero intelligent trader, fundamentalist trader or traders using historical information in the decision making process. The goal of the study is to simulate the behavior of a stock market according to the different considered endogenous and exogenous variables.

The relevance of the article is due to the need of using non-traditional tools for capital raising and hedging financial risks in Ukrainian conditions that allow investors to protect themselves against possible losses during the entire life cycle of the investment project. The study is based on the National Bank of Ukraine statistical data, data of Ukrainian commercial banks, as well as on the authors’ calculations based on empirical and economic-statistical methods. According to international practices, hybrid financial instruments were classified and the special aspects of their use in Ukraine were studied to manage the risks of project financing. Specific features of using the structured bonds for financing investment projects are determined based on the synthetic securitization scheme. The experience of Ukrainian banks was analyzed and the necessity to use financial instruments such as guarantees and letters of credit in risk management of project financing was substantiated. It has been established that forward contracts, currency swaps and over-the-counter currency options are the most acceptable instruments for hedging foreign exchange risks of project financing. Further studies of the problem should include the need for legislative regulation of using hybrid financial instruments, as well as methodological and regulatory support for the risk management of project financing at all stages of the investment project implementation.