Macroeconomic and energy impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: A comparative analysis across countries

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered profound economic and energy-related consequences, reshaped global priorities, and exposed systemic vulnerabilities. The current study aimed to examine pre- and post-invasion trends in key economic and energy indicators for a diverse set of countries: Ukraine and Russia as directly involved parties; the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom as supporters of Ukraine; and China, India, and Türkiye as neutral actors maintaining economic ties with Russia. Using structural time series analysis over the period 2000–2023, the analysis maps economic booms and busts by identifying cycle deviations through a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The findings reveal significant variations in the conflict’s impact, highlighting disruptions in GDP growth, energy systems, and trade dynamics across regions. The study underscores how the war has accelerated energy transitions, redefined global economic resilience, and reshaped international economic and political relationships.