Do oil prices and oil production capacity influence decision making and uncertainty in the financial market? Evidence from Saudi Arabia
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.19(3).2022.28
-
Article InfoVolume 19 2022, Issue #3, pp. 335-345
- Cited by
- 630 Views
-
133 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and oil production capacity and financial market performance in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and how oil prices and oil production capacity influence the decision making and uncertainty factors in Saudi Arabia’s financial markets. The key variables considered are oil prices and oil production capacity in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Other variables such as foreign direct investment decisions and domestic investment decisions are adopted to explore their impact and reaction to the various risks identified. Therefore, data was collected from online sources to analyze qualitative and quantitative information to understand risks, uncertainties and decision-making considerations. The findings of this paper indicate that rising oil prices increase the value of the Saudi Arabian financial market.
The study showed that the diversification of the investor portfolio increases the stability of Saudi Arabia’s financial market. Also, the KSA’s financial market volatility primarily reflects oil price fluctuations, and the Saudi Arabian oil production capacity directly affects its financial market performance. Saudi Arabia’s oil production was also found to pose insignificant risk to long-term economic growth and stability, thereby putting investors’ long-term investments at risk. The study also showed that investors in Saudi Arabia’s financial market fail to objectively analyze risks by focusing on short-term high-profit margins from oil prices.
Acknowledgment
All authors have contributed equally to this paper.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)B17, F21, G41, D81, E44
-
References57
-
Tables0
-
Figures2
-
- Figure 1. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil price and financial market performance correlation
- Figure 2. Comparison of Saudi Arabian crude oil prices and financial market performance to reduce price impact
-
- Adams, S., Adedoyin, F., Olaniran, E., & Bekun, F. V. (2020). Energy consumption, economic policy uncertainty, and carbon emissions; causality evidence from Resource Rich Economies. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 179-190.
- Ahmad, S. (2022). Russia Ukraine conflict - how war affects the stock market. SSRN Electronic Journal.
- Al-Bashayreh, M., Almajali, D., Altamimi, A., Masa’deh, R. E., & Al-Okaily, M. (2022). An Empirical Investigation of Reasons Influencing Student Acceptance and Rejection of Mobile Learning Apps Usage. Sustainability, 14(7), 4325.
- Alfalih, A. A., & Bel Hadj, T. (2020). Foreign direct investment determinants in an oil abundant host country: Short and long-run approach for Saudi Arabia. Resources Policy, 66, 101616.
- Alghusin, N., Alsmadi, A. A., Alkhatib, E., & Alqtish, A. M. (2020). The impact of financial policy on economic growth in Jordan (2000-2017): An ARDL approach. Ekonomski Pregled, 71, 97-108.
- Ali, S. R., Mensi, W., Anik, K. I., Rahman, M., & Kang, S. H. (2022). The impacts of Covid-19 crisis on spillovers between the oil and stock markets: Evidence from the largest oil importers and exporters. Economic Analysis and Policy, 73, 345-372.
- Almansour, B. Y., & Arabyat, Y. A. (2017). International Journal of Management Studies. Investment Decision Making Among Gulf Investors: Behvaioural Finance Perspective, 24(1), 41-71.
- Al-Okaily, M. (2021). Assessing the effectiveness of accounting information systems in the era of COVID-19 pandemic. VINE Journal of Information and Knowledge Management Systems, ahead-of-print.
- Al-Omoush, K. S., Al Attar, M. K., Saleh, I. H., Alsmadi, A. A. (2020). The drivers of E-banking entrepreneurship: an empirical study. International Journal of Bank Marketing, 38(2), 485-500.
- Alqahtani, A., Klein, T., & Khalid, A. (2019). The impact of oil price uncertainty on GCC stock markets. Resources Policy, 64, 101526.
- Al-Qudah, A. A., Hamdan, A., Al-Okaily, M., & Alhaddad, L. (2022). The impact of green lending on credit risk: evidence from UAE’s banks. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-13.
- Alrawashdeh, N., Alsmadi, A. A., & Anwar, A. L. (2022). FinTech: A Bibliometric Analysis for the Period of 2014-2021. Quality – Access to Success, 23(188), 176-188.
- Alsaad, A., & Al-Okaily, M. (2022). Acceptance of protection technology in a time of fear: the case of Covid-19 exposure detection apps. Information Technology & People, ahead-of-print.
- Alsabban, S., & Alarfaj, O. (2020). An empirical analysis of behavioral finance in the Saudi stock market: Evidence of overconfidence behavior. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 10(1), 73-86.
- Alshira’h, A., Alsqour, M., Lutfi, A., Alsyouf, A., & Alshirah, M. (2020). A Socio-Economic Model of Sales Tax Compliance, Economies, 8(4), 88.
- Alshirah, M. H., Alshira’h, A. F., & Lutfi, A. (2021b). Political connection, family ownership and corporate risk disclosure: empirical evidence from Jordan. Meditari Accountancy Research, ahead-of-print.
- Alsmadi, A. A., & Oudat, M. S. (2019). The effect of foreign direct investment on financial development: Empirical evidence from Bahrain. Ekonomski Pregled, 70(1), 22-40.
- Alsmadi, A. A., Oudat, M. S., & Hasan, H. (2020). Islamic finance value versus conventional finance, dynamic equilibrium relationships analysis with macroeconomic variables in the Jordanian economy: An ARDL approach. Change Management, 130(1), 1-14.
- Alsmadi, A. A., Sha’ban, M., & Al-Ibbini, O. A. (2019). The relationship between E-banking services and bank profit in Jordan for the period of 2010-2015. Pervasive Health: Pervasive Computing Technologies for Healthcare, 70-74.
- Alsmadi, A.A., Oudat, M. S., Ali, B. J. A., Al-Ibbini, O. A. (2020). Analyze the Impact of Exchange Rate on Inflation Rate: Kuwait as a Case Study for the Period of 1990 to 2019. Change Management Journal, 183(1), 1-8.
- Alsmadi, Ayman A., Ahmed Shuhaiber, Loai N. Alhawamdeh, Rasha Alghazzawi, & Manaf Al-Okaily. (2022). Twenty Years of Mobile Banking Services Development and Sustainability: A Bibliometric Analysis Overview (2000–2020). Sustainability, 14(17), 10630.
- Alsyouf, A., Masa’deh, R., Albugami, M., Al-Bsheish, M., Lutfi, A., & Alsubahi, N. (2021). Risk of Fear and Anxiety in Utilising Health App Surveillance Due to COVID-19: Gender Differences Analysis. Risks, 9, 179.
- Alzyadat, J. A., & Asfoura, E. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Market: An Empirical Study in Saudi Arabia. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 8(5), 913-922.
- Atassi, H., & Yusuf, N. (2021). The Effect of COVID-19 on Investment Decisions in Saudi Stock Market. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics, and Business, 8(6), 797-807.
- Awan, T. M., Khan, M. S., Haq, I. U., & Kazmi, S. (2021). Oil and stock markets volatility during pandemic times: A review of G7 countries. Green Finance, 3(1), 15-27.
- Ghaithan, A. M., Attia, A. M., & Duffuaa, S. O. (2021). A multi-objective model for an integrated oil and natural gas supply chain under uncertainty. RAIRO – Operations Research, 55(6), 3427-3446.
- Gogtay, N., & Thatte, U. (2017). Principles of Correlation Analysis. Journal of The Association of Physicians of India, 65, 78-81.
- Hamilton, A. B., & Finley, E. P. (2019). Qualitative methods in implementation research: An introduction. Psychiatry Research, 280, 112516.
- Haque, M. I. (2020). Do oil rents deter foreign direct investment? The case of Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 11(1), 212-218.
- Hung, N. T. (2021). Financial connectedness of GCC Emerging Stock Markets. Eurasian Economic Review, 11(4), 753-773.
- Jain, J., Walia, N., & Gupta, S. (2019). Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision-making of individual equity investors by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process. Review of Behavioral Finance, 12(3), 297-314.
- Joghee, S., Alzoubi, H. M., & Dubey, A. R. (2020). Decisions Effectiveness of FDI Investment Biases at Real Estate Industry: Empirical Evidence from Dubai Smart City Projects. International Journal of Scientific & Technology Research, 9(3), 3499-3503.
- Kumar, S., Khalfaoui, R., & Tiwari, A. K. (2021). Does geopolitical risk improve the directional predictability from oil to stock returns? Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Resources Policy, 74, 102253.
- Le, T., Le, A. T., & Le, H. (2021). The historic oil price fluctuation during the COVID-19 pandemic: What are the causes? Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 101489.
- Lutfi, A., Al-Khasawneh, A. L., Almaiah, M. A., Alsyouf, A., & Alrawad, M. (2022). Business Sustainability of Small and Medium Enterprises during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of AIS Implementation. Sustainability, 14(9), 5362.
- Lutfi, A., Alsyouf, A., Almaiah, M. A., Alrawad, M., Abdo, A. A. K., Al-Khasawneh, A. L., & Saad, M. (2022). Factors Influencing the Adoption of Big Data Analytics in the Digital Transformation Era: Case Study of Jordanian SMEs. Sustainability, 14(3), 1802.
- Mahmood, H., & Alkhateeb, T. Y. (2018). Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, and Oil Price Nexus in Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(4), 147-151.
- Mamtha, D., & Srinivasan, K. S. (2016). Stock market volatility – conceptual perspective through literature survey. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 7(1).
- Mensi, W. (2019). Global financial crisis and co-movements between oil prices and sector stock markets in Saudi Arabia: A Var based wavelet. Borsa Istanbul Review, 19(1), 24-38.
- Mensi, W., Hammoudeh, S., & Kang, S. H. (2015). Precious metals, cereal oil and stock market linkages and portfolio risk management. Evidence from Saudi Arabia. Economic Modelling, 51, 340-358.
- Mensi, W., Lee, Y., Vinh Vo, X., & Yoon, S. (2021). Does oil price variability affect the long memory and weak form efficiency of stock markets in top oil producers and oil consumers? Evidence from an asymmetric MF-DFA approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 57, 101446.
- Murayr, A. A., Alharbi, K. H., & Aloufi, H. M. (2021). Voluntary Risk disclosure Assessment in The Corporate Board Structure under uncertainty: A Case Study of Saudi Arabian Companies. Neutrosophic Sets and Systems, 42, 157-177.
- Nguyen, H., Nguyen, H., & Pham, A. (2018). Oil price declines could hurt financial markets and a possible explanation. Mimeo.
- Noreen, U., Alzenaidy, S., Alsabi, R., & Ahmed, Z. (2020). Trends Initial Public Offerings (IPOS) In Saudi Arabia. International Journal of Empirical Finance and Management Sciences, 2(1), 7-29.
- Oudat, M. S., Alsmadi, A. A., & Alrawashdeh, N. M. (2019). Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Jordan: An empirical research using the bounds test for cointegration. Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, 11(1), 55-63.
- Oudat, M. S., Hasan, H., & Alsmadi, A. A. (2020). Macroeconomic variables and portfolio investment in Bahrain using an ARDL bound testing approach. Accounting, 6(4).
- Prabheesh, K. P., Padhan, R., & Garg, B. (2020). COVID-19 and the oil price–stock market nexus: Evidence from net oil-importing countries. Energy Research Letters, 1(2), 13745.
- Ridha, M. (2020). Investigating the Mediating Role of Organization’s Sustainability in The Relationship between Using Greening Technology Information Tools and Organization’s General Performance. Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, 19(1), 75-84.
- Sadouni, M., Keddam, D., & Boumimez, F. (2022). Examining the Causal Relationship Between the Saudi stock Market (TASI) and Oil prices. Journal of Quantitative Economics Studies, 8(1), 433-446.
- Senthilnathan, S. (2019). Usefulness of correlation analysis. SSRN Electronic Journal.
- Shahid, M. N., Aftab, F., Latif, K., & Mahmood, Z. (2018). Behavioral Finance, Investors’ Psychology and Investment Decision Making in Capital Markets: An Evidence through Ethnography and Semi-Structured Interviews. Asia Pacific Journal of Emerging Markets, 2(1), 14-37.
- Shehata, S. M., Abdeljawad, A. M., Mazouz, L. A., Aldossary, L. Y., Alsaeed, M. Y., & Noureldin Sayed, M. (2021). The moderating role of perceived risks in the relationship between financial knowledge and the intention to invest in the Saudi Arabian Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Studies, 9(1), 9.
- Syed, A. M., Alaraifi, A., & Ahmad, S. (2019). Entrepreneurs in Saudi Arabia: Risk Attitude and Predisposition Towards Risk Management. Journal of Entrepreneurship Education, 22(4), 1-18.
- Tan, H. (2022, June 6). Saudi Arabia hikes oil prices sharply, sending US crude futures up to a 3-month high.
- Trading Economics. (2022). Saudi Arabia Stock Market (TASI) 2022 data - 1998-2021 historical - 2023 forecast.
- Wang, B., Ogburn, E. L., & Rosenblum, M. (2019). Analysis of covariance in randomized trials: More precision and valid confidence intervals, without model assumptions. Biometrics, 75(4), 1391-1400.
- Yousaf, I., Patel, R., & Yarovaya, L. (2022). The reaction of G20+ stock markets to the Russia-Ukraine conflict ‘black-swan’ event: Evidence from event study approach. SSRN Electronic Journal.