Company’s financial state forecasting: methods and approaches
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Author(s)Shynara JumadilovaLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8509-3688
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Nurlan SailaubekovLink to ORCID Index: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5004-746X
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Dana Kunanbayeva
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.14(3).2017.09
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Article InfoVolume 14 2017, Issue #3, pp. 93-101
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- 982 Views
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193 Downloads
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Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Planning company’s activity is a complex process, in which foresight is of great importance. The paper presents a method to predict financial state of a company using available financial data. For the prediction of quantitative indicators of the company currently there are different ways to build predictive models, such as simple and multiple regressions, autoregressive model and others. In this paper, to predict financial indicators of the company we use econometric modeling techniques. Tools to check the time series for the seasonality and stationarity are used in constructing the models. To check the reliability of the analysis techniques applied backtesting. To apply the developed method we used the values of financial indicators of the Kazakh national oil producing company. However, the method can be used for any company despite its size, industry, and so on. Albeit the method proposed is universal one and enables to predict financial state at any company, it has certain shortcomings and should be used along with fun¬damental analysis tools. The method proposed in the paper illustrated adequate results with sufficient accuracy according to the backtesting results. Therefore, based on the results of forecasting the financial state indicators, one can conduct a financial analysis of the expected state in upcoming period and use the derived values for future planning.
- Keywords
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)C58, G30
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References13
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Tables1
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Figures1
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- Figure 1. Financial state indicators forecasting process chart
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- Table 1. Backtesting of the model adequacy
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Waste management policy and employment: the case of France
Environmental Economics Volume 9, 2018 Issue #1 pp. 38-46 Views: 2319 Downloads: 287 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThis paper examines whether a causal relationship exists between waste tonnage and employment when the waste collection is entrusted to a private operator in France (i.e. waste management policy by delegation of service). The empirical investigation is based on weekly data for four waste streams for the period from January 2015 to June 2017. Using nonstationary time series techniques including cointegration, VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) and long-run causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995) within a bivariate framework, the results demonstrate potential causal negative relationship between waste tonnage and employment. For three waste streams (i.e. household waste, outdoor garbage waste and miscellaneous waste), the results suggest that waste management practices that aim at entrusting the collection and treatment to a private operator (i.e. waste management by delegation of service) are not economically beneficial to society, because this policy does not favor environmental jobs creation. The paper calls for the adoption of other waste management practices to preserve employment in the waste collection sector.
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Macroeconomic factors and LQ45 stock price index: evidence from Indonesia
Sugeng Hadi Utomo ,
Dwi Wulandari ,
Bagus Shandy Narmaditya ,
Puji Handayati ,
Suryati Ishak
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(3).2019.23
Investment Management and Financial Innovations Volume 16, 2019 Issue #3 pp. 251-259 Views: 1346 Downloads: 314 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯThis paper provides the relationship between macroeconomic variables, including exchange rate, BI rate and inflation, and stocks performance, particulary bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The study particularly gives insights on bluechip stocks listed in LQ45 stock price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2017. The data were obtained from various sources during the period, including the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), the Central Bank of Indonesia (BI), and the Ministry of Trade. This study followed a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) attempting to estimate the relationship between variables both in the short term and in the long term. The findings of the study showed that in the long run, exchange rate, BI rate and inflation have a negative impact on stock market performance, particularly on LQ45 index in Indonesia Stock Exchange. It implies that an increase in macroeconomic variables results in the decline of stock market performance. Meanwhile, in the short run, two variables, namely the exchange rate and inflation, positively affect stock market performance in Indonesia. On the contrary, the relationship between BI rate and stock market performance showed a negative correlation. These findings have significant implication for the understanding of how macroeconomic variables affect the stock market performance, particularly LQ45 price index in Indonesia Stock Exchange.
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Strategic management optimization of the regional agricultural sector by means of modern forecast modeling instruments
Liudmyla Tranchenko , Nataliya Petrenko ,
Liliia Kustrich ,
Nataliya Parubok ,
Oleksandr Tranchenko
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.06
Problems and Perspectives in Management Volume 16, 2018 Issue #4 pp. 64-74 Views: 1173 Downloads: 140 TO CITE АНОТАЦІЯUnder the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world economic space, the agricultural sector is one of the priority and strategically important sectors of the national economy. The research objective is to substantiate the theoretical, methodological and methodical principles of strategic management of economic development of the regional agricultural sector and to solve actual problems in order to optimize strategic management based on cognitive scenarios of supply and demand balancing in the agrarian market, probabilistic modeling, which allows the regions to identify the “growth points”, to optimize the sectoral structures of the economy, to improve the quality and efficiency of the developed and implemented scenarios and the strategies of the agroindustrial production development in the region.
As a result of the research, a scenario-probabilistic model of economic development of the regional agrarian sector was proposed, which allows to identify the priority directions for the long-term perspective, to adjust the direction of development if necessary, to explore different scenarios of the development of events on the priorities change at the macro level in the conditions of uncertainty and risks.
Thus, the practical value of the research enables to predict the strategic development of the agricultural sector of the region and its individual areas by using a systematic approach and compositions of methodological approaches to analysis and forecasting, considering it as a complex and structured system.
