Can key interest rates decrease output gaps?

The war conflict in the East Ukraine impacts the geopolitical security and stability of Europe and other countries of the world. So, there are the global effects of the war conflict in Ukraine. And the instability in Ukraine has its social consequences that influences the European development. The aim of the article is to identify and elaborate social effects of the war conflict in Ukraine and to get understanding of its influence on European stability, on position of Ukraine on European arena. The article has been prepared by using such methods as: analysis of Ukrainian and European research papers, comparison and generalization of the facts about war conflict in Ukraine. In the article social consequences of the war conflict in Ukraine, such as migration, unemployment, crime growth, decreasing of population and others have been studied. It has been described that social dimension of the war conflict in Ukraine has its influence on European stability and geopolitical situation, especially Ukrainian migration. At the end of the article the authors present the conclusions and the mechanism for solving the war conflict situation in Ukraine. Also, Ukraine needs an integrated approach in order to solve all economic and social problems in the country. Only integrated approach will allow to use available Ukrainian resources and advanced European experience to provide economic and social stability of the country.

This study came to inspect the impact of the development of both financial market and banking system on the economic growth of Jordan based on the annual data covering the period 1993–2017. Through the use of many methodologies: Johansen cointegration test, (VECM), and Granger causality test, where real GDP was used as an indicator of economic growth, the real market value of stocks (Market Capitalization) (LCAP) and Share Turnover (LTURN) are indicators for the financial market, Money supply in the broad concept (LM2), and Local domestic credit (LCR) are indicators for the banking sector.
The results of this study reported that the study variables are stationary, and in the level of order 2, they are integrated, and a long-run relationship between the study variables existed according to the Johansen co-integration test. VECM model result and the target model result confirm a short-run causality running from the all variables toward GDP. Granger causality test underline a single directional causality running from variables of our study to GDP and denote the short-run impact between LCAP, LTURN, LM2, LCR, and LGDP. The analysis of the variance decomposition shows that the development of the banking system affects economic growth almost equally with the impact of the development of the financial market. The results go to the same line of supply-leading hypothesis.

The stability of economies all over the world over is largely a function of inflation and interest rates. Over the past two decades, Swaziland’s economy experienced increasing inflation and interest rates with the blame leveled against the absolute Monarchy’s inability to manage the economy. In particular, the period of 2010 to 2014 was the hardest hit because of increasing poverty levels. The purpose of the study was therefore to assess the relationship between inflation and interest rates in the context of Swaziland with a view to constructing fiscal and monetary policies capable of driving an efficient economy going forward. The study employed a confirmatory and quantitative approach based on a review of secondary data over the period. The source and description of data included quarterly based data within the 2010–2014 period comprising information on interest rate, gross domestic product and inflation figures from the Central Bank of Swaziland, the national library, and the Central Statistical Department of Swaziland. A descriptive approach, using Microsoft excel, was used to analyze the data. The study findings showed that there was positive relationship between interest rates and inflation. Recommendations were that, Swaziland could craft appropriate fiscal and monetary policies towards controlling the prevailing economic challenges despite the peculiar socio-political nature where the absolute Monarchy holds executive authority and accountability.