Vandana Gupta

Identifying and managing credit risk is vital for all lending institutions. Historically, credit risk is assessed using financial data from published financial statements. However, research indicates that the ability to detect financial hardship may be improved by textual analysis of firms’ disclosed records. This study aims to establish an association between themes and words from Management Discussion and Analysis (MDA) reports of firms and corporate failures. The study took a sample of 57 Indian listed firms declared bankrupt under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) along with a matched sample of 55 solvent firms (matched by industry and size) for the period of FY2011–2019. The first part of analysis identifies negative words from the published reports and compares them with the negative words of the Loughran-McDonald dictionary. Then a thematic analysis is done to identify the key themes from the MDA reports and the significant themes are validated with their corresponding financial ratios in the third step using a panel logistic regression. Word analysis results show that IBC firms have significantly greater negative tone (2.21 percent) as against 1.30 percent of solvent firms. Thematic analysis results show that manageability, activity and performance are significant themes for predicting financial distress. Financial variables such as ownership pattern, promoters’ shares pledged, return on capital employed, asset utilization are some of the ratios in sync with the key themes. The study recommends that lenders and other stakeholders should look beyond financial statements which may be ‘window dressed’ by firms to qualitative disclosures in annual reports which may forewarn against impending financial distress.

Acknowledgments
The infrastructural support provided by FORE School of Management, New Delhi in completing this paper is gratefully acknowledged.

Understanding the macroeconomic factors is essential for all firms operating in the economy. Investment decisions, financing decisions, and risk management of firms are influenced by the existing macroeconomic factors, thereby impacting their performance. This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic factors on the performance of Indian manufacturing firms. Two-step generalized method of moments model is applied in this investigation to analyze the effect of firm performance from the financial year 2004-05 to 2021-22. Firm performance is proxied by two accounting-based measures and a market-based measure, namely, return on assets, return on equity, and Tobin’s Q, respectively, while the macro-economic factor is proxied by annual gross domestic product growth rate. The empirical findings show that firm performance has a positive relationship with macroeconomic factors. In addition, the findings reveal that firm size, firm age, leverage, sales growth, and operating profit impact firm performance. The study further extends to examine the moderating effect of financing constraints (measured by firm size and age) on macroeconomic factors and firm performance. The results show that the effect is more pronounced on small and young firms as compared to large and mature firms. The study also evaluates the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm performance excluding the crisis periods (the financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic) and finds the impact on the market performance to be insignificant during non-crisis periods. This study recommends that lenders, managers, and other stakeholders should take proactive policy measures for any anticipated adverse changes in macroeconomic factors on the performance of Indian firms.

Acknowledgments
The financial and infrastructural support provided by FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India in completing this paper is gratefully acknowledged.