Taras Vasyltsiv

The effective functioning of the banking sector has a key impact on the stability of economic growth. The study is aimed at monitoring the banking sector development and identifying causality between the banking sector and economic growth. The methodological tools of the research are Principal component analysis, causal relationship, and vector regression modeling. The empirical study is based on the World Bank databank by eight components (for integral analysis) and seven indicators (for causality analysis). The study presents an improved algorithm for monitoring the level of banking sector development based on calculating the integral coefficient. According to assessment, the level of banking sector development and realization of its potential in Ukraine is low and significantly inferior to the EU countries; in 2000–2019, the development of the banking sector in Ukraine was 0.061-0.153. The results obtained confirmed the large discrepancy in the development of Ukraine’s banking sector with some EU countries (the highest lag values were observed with the Czech Republic and Poland). The causality analysis revealed a strong favorable relationship between the level of development of the banking sector in Ukraine and GDP per capita (0.796), a moderate one – with foreign direct investment (0.400), and a reverse relationship with the level of national poverty (0.678). This study is of practical value for identifying two possible trajectories of a country’s development, namely, sustainable development and economic turbulence, and has allowed forming a conceptual vision of the role of the banking sector in achieving social and economic goals.

The growing Ukrainian migration towards EU countries determines the need for evaluation of pull factors shaping their environment to regulate these processes better. The study aims to assess the EU’s pull environment attracting migrants, and evaluate the elasticity of Ukrainian total and labor migration to the change of social and economic factors in EU countries. The data are collected for the period from 2005 to 2018. The method involves weighting the indicators and sub-indices with the following calculating partial and integral indices of the pull environment of migration for selected EU countries (the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Portugal, Greece, and Spain) and the EU-28. During 2005–2018, the integral level of pull environment of migration in the EU-28 was above average, whereas the most attractive countries for external migrants were Germany, the Czech Republic, Spain, and Italy. In terms of the intensity of total migration from Ukraine in 2018, Poland (236.06 departures per 1,000 Ukrainians), Hungary (73.6), Germany (12.6), and Italy (7.3) are among the main destinations. While the intensity of Ukrainian migration is high, its growth rate depends on the time lag (different elasticities in the medium and long run). The integral analysis of the pull environment has a practical value allowing to conduct migration intensity and elasticity evaluation, as well as the cross-country pull-factor analysis (pull strength) for substantiating the improvement of regulatory and methodological provisions of migration policies for both Ukraine and the hosting EU states.

Acknowledgment
The study has been conducted within the framework of applied research “Mechanisms of the proactive policy for reducing social vulnerability of the population (based on the Carpathian region of Ukraine)” (M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0121U112014, 2021–2023).

The system of indicators of the population’s socio-economic vulnerability is the determinant of regions’ social resilience. The growth of these indicators leads to the emergence of new and aggravation of existing social risks and threats in different time periods. The paper aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the population’s social resilience environment in the Carpathian region of Ukraine. The environment of the population social resilience in the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine is assessed based on the theory of elasticity by calculating the temporal weight coefficients of 31 indicators (systematized in 4 groups) and integral empirical coefficient of the environment by multiplicative assessment. The results show that among the oblasts of the Carpathian region of Ukraine, the social resilience environment was the highest in Zakarpatska and Ivano-Frankivska oblasts (0.530 each) in 2019, and in Lvivska (0.540) and Chernivetska (0.585) oblasts in 2014. The growth of the social resilience environment rate was recorded in Lvivska (0.630) and Chernivetska (0.691) oblasts in the period of economic capacity recovery (2018). The average annual growth pace of the coefficient of deviation of the empirical social resilience environment rate from the national rate ranged from –1.29% to –0.26%. The study can serve as an information-analytical basis for developing the regional policy to secure the convergence of social standards of social resilience between the Carpathian region and neighboring EU countries (adherence to the principles of consumption safety and social responsibility, growing resistance of the healthcare system, balanced labor market and employment, development of clean and safe living spaces).

Acknowledgment
The study was conducted within the framework of applied research “Mechanisms of the proactive policy for reducing social vulnerability of the population (based on the Carpathian region of Ukraine)” (No SR 0121U112014, M. Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, 2021–2023).

A large-scale migration from Ukraine caused by russian military aggression has triggered new security challenges to the national and regional economies. The paper aims to assess the competitiveness of regional labor markets and examine its nexus with international out-migration (on the example of the Carpathian region of Ukraine). The research methods include a composite approach (assessment of labor market competitiveness), the theory of sensitivity (identification of degree of sensitivity of composite and partial indices to changes in indicators), nonlinear regression (determination of dependence of the international out-migration on labor market competitiveness), and econometric nonlinear optimization (calculation of critical values of migration). The information and analytical basis comprises indicators reflecting the development of labor markets and international migrations in the oblasts of the Carpathian region in 2008–2021. The study reveals that the level of labor market competitiveness in the region mainly remained below the national average. Two groups of indicators dominated the structure of composite indices of labor market competitiveness in the region’s oblasts: institutional capacity (indicators measuring the ability of regulatory institutions and labor market entities to provide adequate support to the unemployed and promote employment) and labor motivation (wage and income indicators). Only Lviv oblast demonstrated resilience and growth of competitiveness, which was reflected in moderate out-migration. Meanwhile, the intensity of international out-migration in Zakarpattia and Chernivtsi oblasts (with worse labor market parameters) exceeded the estimated critical values. The paper confirms that low competitiveness of the labor market is a factor increasing migration losses.

Acknowledgment
This study has been conducted with the support of the Virtual Ukraine Institute for Advanced Study (VUIAS) Fellowship Programme, 2023/2024.

The Carpathian Region (Zakarpattia, Lviv, Chernivtsi, and Ivano-Frankivsk) is inferior to other regions in Ukraine regarding its economic development, which does not contribute to migration stability and, rather, serves as a factor motivating the active part of the population to emigrate. The problem of the labor market disproportions in the Carpathian Region is one of the significant causes of the formation and subsequent implementation of migration intentions, especially in rural areas, less economically developed areas, and district centers, where labor demand is much lower. The research aims to develop an innovative approach to calculating the intensity of the population’s external migration based on the introduction of a correction coefficient, which enables to consider the scale of transit migration in the Carpathian Region. The data presented in the study were collected for the period 2005–2018. Granger causality analysis is used to assess the relationship between migration and socio-economic development of the region. The analysis reveals that in all regions of the Carpathian Region, there is a short-run causal relationship between the intensity of external migration and the share of total household expenditure on food; in the medium run, the real household income, the size of the average monthly wages, and the volume of foreign portfolio investment, the foreign economic activity and retail trade turnover in the region; in the long run, living standards and indicators of economic growth. Future studies may require a more diverse set of indicators to evaluate the causal relationship in other regions of Ukraine, which will provide the integrity of the results of Granger causality analysis.

Acknowledgment
The research has been conducted within the framework of applied research ‘Migration Activity of the Population of the Carpathian Region’ (Dolishniy Institute of Regional Research of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Reg. No. 0119U002010, 2019–2021).

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has become an existential challenge and a trigger of the migration crisis. The study aims to identify migration intentions of youth and factors for the preservation of the young population in Ukraine (a case study of university youth). The study conducts a sociological survey using a Google Forms questionnaire. The sample was formed by the method of three-stage selection: (1) quotas for the share of undergraduate and graduate students; (2) the higher education institutions in Ukraine were selected by the criterion of the number of students and specialties; and (3) field of knowledge. The sample size is calculated based on the resampling method and included 2,200 people from all regions in Ukraine (except Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts). The study reveals that 10% of students plan to go abroad in the near future before graduation, 30% plan to stay in Ukraine only if the socio-economic situation improves after the end of the war, and 28.3% plan to migrate after graduation. The reasons for positive migration aspirations among students are socio-economic and security issues (14.9% can find a job abroad in the short term, 11.1% see the lack of further prospects in Ukraine even after the end of the war). Monitoring of youth migration processes across two vectors – current volumes and potential aspirations – can serve as an information and analytical basis for the development of a new vision of the country’s migration security strategy to preserve human resources in Ukraine.