Olha Tryfonova

Current local and national demographic trends have deepened the existing and formed new global demographic processes that have received a new historical reasoning that requires deep scientific research taking into account the influence of the multifactorial global dimension of the modern society development.
The purpose of the article is to study the development of global demographic processes and to define the causes of their occurrence, manifestations, implications and prospects for implementation in the first half of the 21st century.
The authors have identified and characterized four global demographic processes, namely population growth, migration, increase of tourism, and change in population structure. It is projected that in the 30’s of the 21st century, the number and growth rates of the world population will reach the objective growth and these dynamics over the next two decades will begin to change in the direction of reducing the growth rates, which will lead to gradual stabilization, and eventually reduce the size of the world population. By the middle of the 21st century, one can observe the preservation of the growth rates of international and domestic migration, the growth of international migration flows from the South to the North and from the East to the West, the strengthening of new economically developed centers of gravity (Canada, Australia and New Zealand), the increase in migration of rural population to cities, as well as urbanization and activation of the metropolises development. The share of international tourists in comparison with the world population will be constantly increasing, and the annual growth rate of the number of international tourists will significantly depend on the world economy and may vary at the several percent level. Permanent change will occur in the age, religious-cultural and socio-economic structure of the population.

This paper analyzes price gaps in the Ukrainian stock market for the case of UX index over the period 2009–2018. Using different statistical tests (Student’s t-tests, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney test) and regression analysis with dummy variables, as well as modified cumulative approach and trading simulation, the authors test a number of hypotheses searching for price patterns and abnormal market behavior related to price gaps: there is seasonality in price gaps (H1); price gaps generate statistical anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market (H2); upward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H3) and downward gaps generate price patterns in the Ukrainian stock market (H4). Overall results are consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis: there is no seasonality in price gaps and in most cases there is no evidences of price patterns or abnormal price behavior after the gaps in the Ukrainian stock market. Nevertheless, the authors find very strong and convincing evidences in favor of momentum effect on the days of negative gaps. These observations are confirmed by trading simulations: trading strategy based on detected price pattern generates profits and demonstrates overall efficiency, which is against the market efficiency. These results can be interesting both for academicians (further evidences against market efficiency) and practitioners (real and effective trading strategy to generate profits in the Ukrainian market market).