Marcela Gergeľová

The contribution is aimed at developing a model of demand in tourist traffic with due regard to economic, geographical, demographical and social factors such as the GDP, Consumer Price Index, prices of trips, revenues per capita, exchange rate, etc. Important parts of this model are made up by the unpredictable negative situations that have already happened some time ago. The aim is to identify them and perform a follow-up analysis of the potential threats to a company involved in the tourist industry. Rated among those situations are terrorism, earthquakes and aviation accidents.