Ahmed Abdulzahra Hamdan

The issue of whether money supply is a dependent or an independent variable remains a debating one, especially with the ongoing development and innovation of institutions, tools, and financial, monetary, and banking derivatives. In general, we can say that there are two trends of thought about the issue under consideration. The first trend views money supply as an exogenous variable because the monetary authority can control and monitor it. The second one views money supply as an endogenous variable because Federal Bank has no ability to affect it, especially when nominal or money income is changed and reflected on money multiplier and money supply, and also when the monetary authority cannot restrict the monetary expansion as a result of different factors related to the economy structure or related to other non-economic factors.

The importance of the study stems from the fact that Iraq’s economy is facing a housing crisis, especially in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, great demographic pressure due to pronounced population growth over the past two decades. The Central Bank of Iraq undertakes several initiatives represented in granting real estate loans, mainly through the Real Estate Bank at very low interest, and in the last two years, the interest has become zero. The purpose of the study is to analyze the fiscal implications of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiatives, as well as its real impact on the spatial dimension of the Iraqi governorates through new housing in those governorates. Using data mainly from the Central Bank of Iraq’s bulletins, the study obtained a 6-year sample of study variables for 15 Iraqi governorates. Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was used to test such repercussions. One of the study’s findings is that the greatest impact of the Iraqi central bank’s real estate initiative was the fiscal and real repercussions for the year 2021, and the highest relative impact was in Baghdad governorate, with fiscal and real returns distinct from the rest of the governorates. One of the conclusions reached is that the strength of the fiscal repercussion was more important, more significant, and stronger than the real impact of the initiatives of the Central Bank of Iraq. Similarly, it was concluded that Baghdad was the first governorate that benefited from the effects of the initiative.

This paper investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Iraq after 2003 using the prisoner’s dilemma.
The paper aims to determine the best form of coordination between these policies to achieve their goals; payoff matrix for both policies was constructed. To achieve the purpose, the quantitative approach was applied using several methods, including regression, building payoff matrices and decision analysis using a number of software.
The results of the monetary policy payment function show that inflation rate has an inverse relationship with the auctions of selling foreign currency and a positive relationship with the government’s activity, while the fiscal policy function shows that real growth is positively related to price levels (the inverted Phillips curve) and correlates with the government’s activity. After using the Gambit Solution to determine the Nash balance, which is achieved through the expansion strategies of both policies to confirm the results, the Promethee-Gaia method was used for multi-criteria decision making. When the two policies interact with similar forces (50% each), the best decision is one of the expansionary strategies that help achieve their main objectives in the short and long term, represented by price stability and economic growth.
The main conclusion is that the best way to achieve the goals of economic policy in Iraq is that the coordination of procedures between the two policies should be expansionary, since the Iraqi economy needs to be stimulated due to the under-exploitation of many its sectors, such as agriculture and industry.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects generated by military spending in Iraq during the pre- and post-ISIS periods, covering the years from 2004 to 2024. The study focuses on the real and monetary implications of military expenditure by identifying the impact and direction of changes in military spending on a set of selected variables. The statistical bulletins of the Central Bank of Iraq and reports of the Iraqi Ministry of Finance were analyzed. Regression analysis and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) using Amos 22.0 were adopted. All the study hypotheses were assessed, and all relationships were significant, as it became clear that military spending has a positive impact on the monetary base (+0.74), market value of the Iraqi stock market (+0.73), and credit provided to the government (+0.68), meaning that there is a direct relationship. Moreover, the study found a negative impact on the inflation rate (–0.64), number of victims (–0.24), economic growth (–0.26), and assets of commercial banks (–0.47), revealing an inverse relationship between the studied variables and military spending. The central conclusion of the study is that military spending in Iraq, given its growing significance over the past decades and its continued presence in federal government budgets, has become a factor influencing many economic indicators.