Assessment of public welfare in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization
-
DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.19(1).2021.35
-
Article InfoVolume 19 2021, Issue #1, pp. 416-431
- Cited by
- 1221 Views
-
797 Downloads
This work is licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
With the emergence of the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2019, a process of transformation of the modern economic system took place, which requires new approaches to assessing economic processes. One of such processes is the assessment of public welfare. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to assessing the level of public welfare of the population of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and economy digitalization. To solve this problem, the methods of artificial intelligence, in particular the method of fuzzy sets theory, which allows using the incomplete information and making high-quality forecast calculations, are used. The factors influencing the level of public welfare during the COVID-19 pandemic have been identified. These are the following factors: gross domestic product, poverty rate, welfare index, human development index, subsistence level, and indicators that characterize the COVID-19 pandemic (i.e. the total number of COVID-19 cases, the total number of deaths from COVID-19, and the total number of vaccinations from COVID-19 in Ukraine). Using fuzzy sets theory, an economic-mathematical model for assessing the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine was built. Two-dimensional dependences of the level of public welfare of Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on indicators such as gross domestic product, subsistence level, and the total number of cases of COVID-19 in Ukraine were obtained. The results of the study established that the level of public welfare in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 0-100 scale is predicted to be as follows points: 2021 – 17, 2022 – 23, 2023 – 27, 2024 – 19, 2025 – 35 and will not meet international standards.
- Keywords
-
JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)I15, I31, C45
-
References48
-
Tables2
-
Figures13
-
- Figure 1. Ukraine’s GDP in current prices, 2020
- Figure 2. Poverty index of Ukraine, 2020
- Figure 3. Legatum Prosperity Index of Ukraine, 2020
- Figure 4. Components of the integral index Legatum Prosperity Index of Ukraine, 2020
- Figure 5. Human Development Index of Ukraine, 2020
- Figure 6. Living wage in Ukraine, 2020
- Figure 7. Coronavirus cases in Ukraine, 2021
- Figure 8. Total coronavirus deaths in Ukraine, 2021
- Figure 9. Structural model for assessing public welfare in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Figure 10. Membership function of the output IPWU
- Figure 11. The results of the assessment and forecasting the level of public welfare in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Figure 12. Graph representing the two-dimensional correlation of IPWU (GDP, CC)
- Figure 13. Graph representing the two-dimensional correlation of IPWU (LW, CC)
-
- Table 1. Generalization of values of indicators in an estimation digital economic model of public welfare level in Ukraine in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
- Table 2. Database of the IPWU value
-
- Adam Smith. (1776). An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.
- Arrow, K. J. (1951). Social Choice and Individual Values. New Haven. New York.
- Babenko, V., Nehrey, M., Gaponova, E., Ryzhikova, N., & Zaporozhets, E. (2019). Life Expectancy of Population of the Country: The Role of Health Services Effectiveness. Research in World Economy, 10, 86-91.
- Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., & Kremer, M. (2016). The Influence of Randomized Controlled Trials on Development Economics Research and on Development Policy. The State of Economics, The State of the World, 11, 1-76.
- Bell, D. (1976). The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism. New-York. Basic Books.
- Bergson, H. (1911). Creative Evolution (Authorized translation by Arthur Mitchell). Henry Holt and Company.
- Byrdyn, A. (2008). Goals and criteria for socio-economic development of the region. State building, 1, 1-10.
- Campbell, A., Philip, E., & Willard, l. (1976). The Quality of American Life: Perceptions, evaluations, and satisfactions. New York. Russell Sage.
- Daqar, M., Constantinovits, M., Arqawi, S., & Daragmeh, A. (2021). The role of Fintech in predicting the spread of COVID-19. Banks and Bank Systems, 16(1), 1-16.
- Derbentsev, V., Matviychuk, A., & Soloviev, V. (2020). Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Prices Using Machine Learning. Advanced Studies of Financial Technologies and Cryptocurrency Markets, 30, 211-231.
- Dinitto, D. M., & Johnson, D. H. (2003). Social Welfare: Politics and Public Policy. Boston. Pearson Education.
- Erikson, R. (1993). Description of Inequality: The Swedish Approach to Welfare Research. The Quality of Life. Oxford.
- Human Development Report. (2020). The Next Frontier: Human Development and the Anthropocene. United Nations Development Programme.
- Human Development Index. (2020). Human Development Reports of United Nations Development Programme.
- Ilyash, O., Hrynkevych, S., Illich, l., Kozlovskyi, S., & Buhaychuk, N. (2020). Economic Assessment of the Relationship Between Housing and Communal Infrastructure Development Factors and Population Quality of Life in Ukraine. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 16(3), 93-108.
- Koziuk, V., Dluhopolskyi, O., & Petruk, V. (2019). Globalization, innovation and fragility of optimal fiscal zones: secessions risks of Belgium, lessons for Ukraine. Ideology and Politics Journal, 1(12), 60-90.
- Koziuk, V., Hayda, Y., Dluhopolskyi, O., & Kozlovskyi, S. (2020). Ecological performance: ethnic fragmentation versus governance quality and sustainable development. Problemy ekorozwoju – Problems of sustainable development, 15(1), 53-64.
- Kozlovskyi, S., Mazur, H., Vdovenko, N., Shepel, T., & Kozlovskyi, V. (2018). Modeling and forecasting the level of state stimulation of agricultural production in Ukraine based on the theory of fuzzy logic. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(3), 37-53.
- Kozlovskyi, S., Nikolenko, I., Peresada, O., Pokhyliuk, O., Yatchuk, O., Bolgarova, N., & Kulhanik, O. (2020). Estimation level of public welfare on the basis of methods of intellectual analysis. Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management, 6(3), 355-372.
- Kozlovskyi, S., Bilenko, D., Dluhopolskyi, O., Vitvitskyi, S., Bondarenko, O., & Korniichuk, O. (2021). Determinants of COVID-19 death rate in Europe: empirical analysis. Problemy Ekorozwoju, Problems of Sustainable Development, 16(1), 17-28.
- Law of Ukraine. (2000). On State Social Standards and State Social Guarantees, 48.
- Legatum Institute. (2021).
- List, S., & Goodin, R. (2001). Epistemic democracy: generalizing the Condorcet Jury Theorem. Journal of Political Philosophy, 9(3), 277-306.
- Libanova, E. (2020). Poverty of the population of Ukraine: methodology, methods and practice of analysis. Uman. Sochinsky.
- Matviychuk, A., Strelchenko, I., Vashchaiev, S., & Velykoivanenko, H. (2019). Simulation of the Crisis Contagion Process Between Countries with Different Levels of Socio-Economic Development. Proceedings of the 15th International Conference on ICT in Education, Research and Industrial Applications. Integration, Harmonization and Knowledge Transfer.
- Matviychuk, A., Lukianenko, O., & Miroshnychenko, I. (2019). Neuro-fuzzy model of country’s investment potential assessment. Fuzzy Economic Review, 24(2).
- Nikolenko, L., Jurakovskiy, E., Ivanyuta, N., Andronik, O., & Sharkovska, S. (2018). Investment policy of governance of economic security of agrarian sector of Ukraine on the basis of the theory of fuzzy logics. Montenegrin Journal of Economics, 14(4), 125-140.
- Oliinyk, V., & Kozmenko, S. (2019). Forecasting and management of gross domestic product. Journal of International Studies, 12(4), 214-228.
- Official Site of Minfin. (2020). Living wage in Ukraine 2020.
- Panoshichen, Y., & Kozachko, O. (2010). Fuzzy model for assessing the creditworthiness of individuals-borrowers of commercial banks. Visnyk HNU, 1(Т2), 161-168. (In Ukrainian).
- Pareto, V. (1935). The mind and society [Trattato di sociologia generale]. New York. Harcourt, Brace.
- Pigou, A. (1932). The economics of welfare. London. Macmillan.
- Petrova, I., Balyka, O., & Kachan, H. (2020). Digital economy and digital employment appearence. Social and labour relations: theory and practice, 10(2), 10-20.
- Potapov, I. (2011). Social welfare: the essence of the concept in the context of modern theoretical approaches. Theoretical and applied issues of state formation, 8, 430-447.
- Pratar, R. (1999). Getting started with Matlab 5. A quick introduction for scientists and engineers. Oxford University Press.
- Ptoukha institute for demography and social studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. (2020). Influencing the coronavirus crisis on the daily life: the first legacies for Ukraine.
- Rotshtein, A. (1999). Intellectual identification technologies: fuzzy logic, genetic algorithms, neural networks. Vinnytsia: Universum.
- Rotshtein, A., & Shtovba, S. (2009). Modeling of the Human Operator Reliability with the Aid of the Sugeno Fuzzy Knowledge Base. Automation and Remote Control, 70, 163-169.
- Schumpeter, J. A. (1908). Das Wesen und der Hauptinhalt der theoretischen Nationalökonomie. Germany: Leipzig, Duncker & Humblot.
- The Legatum Prosperity Index. (2020). Official site of Legatum Institute.
- The World Bank. (2020). Gross domestic product of Ukraine at current prices.
- The United Nations. (2021). Working arrangements for the 2021 session of the Economic and Social Council.
- The International Monetary Fund. (2021). Policy Support and Vaccines Expected to Lift Activity.
- Tsymbaliuk, S., Wyrwa, D., & Shkoda, T. (2019). Remuneration policy in terms of decent work at a regional level. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 17(4), 80-92.
- United Nations Development Programme. (2020).
- Weizsacker, E. U., & Wijkman, A. (2018). Come on! Capitalism, Short-termism, Population and Destruction of the Planet – A Report to the Club of Rome. Springer Science+Business Medis LLC. New York.
- Worldometer. (2021). Coronavirus in Ukraine.
- World Economic Forum. (2020).