Veronika Barvinok

This paper explores how the war in Ukraine changed the interest in higher education of Ukrainians who stayed on the territory of Ukraine and emigrated to other countries. The methodology is based on Google Trends Analysis and peak approach with Google Trends Scale of Internet user inquiries about higher education from June 20, 2021 to June 20, 2023 with a middle point on February 24, 2022. Dynamics of changes in the queries of Internet users by keywords regarding studied higher education are: 1) exclusively from the territory of Ukraine; 2) from the territory of Poland, Slovakia, Germany, the Czech Republic, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Austria, i.e., top-10 countries by number of registered Ukrainian refugees according to the UN Refugee Agency. The key results are: 1) increased interest of Internet users in higher education after beginning of the full-scale war: Poland – 22.9%, Romania – 28.9%, Ukraine – 31.2%, Hungary – 32.4%, Slovakia – 35.8%, Moldova – 49.0% of average number of «university» inquiries; 2) increased requests for professional education (42.2%), distance education (25.6%), distance learning (34.1%) after February 24, 2022; 3) correlation between negative trends of interest per 32% from July 2021 (100 GT Scale) to July 2022 (68 GT Scale) in Ukraine and positive trends of this indicator in European counties in August 2022 (80-100 GT Scale). Chi-square test showed statistical significance of changes in interest in higher education (p-value = 0). Key findings demonstrate the following trends after February 24, 2022: distance learning development, increased Internet users’ orientation towards professional education for high-paying jobs, popularity of flexible schedules.

Acknowledgments
The educational outcomes in this publication were created with the support of the EU Erasmus+ program within the framework of projects ERASMUS-JMO-2021-HEI-TCH-RSCH-101048055 – «AICE – With Academic integrity to EU values: step by step to common Europe» and ERASMUS-JMO-2022-HEI-TCH-RSCH-101085198 «OSEE – Open Science and Education in Europe: success stories for Ukrainian academia».

This study examines the interconnections between transformations in the education sphere, migrations waves, and labor market in 2000–2021 based on a panel data set for 14 Central and Eastern European countries (7 – former members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance; 5 – former republics of the USSR, and 2 – former republics of Yugoslavia). Statistical data were collected from the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the International Labour Organization databases. To describe this interconnection, a pool of parameters was formed. Those that cause the greatest variability were selected using exploratory factor analysis: for education – the number of teachers and students in higher education and public spending on education; for migration – the net migration flow, personal remittances sent and received; for labor market –unemployment rate and the share of highly educated people among the employed. Confirmatory factor analysis identified the most influential determinants: for education – the number of students in higher education; for migration – paid personal remittances; for labor market – unemployment rate. The covariance analysis demonstrated a robust direct correlation between education and migration (positive shifts in the education sector serve as a catalyst for pursuing superior employment opportunities or continuing education abroad). A relatively weak direct correlation was between education and the labor market (a more highly educated workforce has only a limited impact on the structure and dynamics of the labor market). Finally, a moderate inverse correlation was between migration and the labor market (deteriorating labor market conditions give rise to migration waves).

Acknowledgment
This study is funded in terms of the projects “Business-Education-Science” Coopetition: Institutional and Economic Models of Innovation Transfer for National Security and Sustainable Development (№ 0122U000772) and “Modelling educational transformations in wartime to preserve the intellectual capital and innovative potential of Ukraine” (№0123U100114).