Kateryna Romenska

Adjusting the balanced movement of financial flows in the budget process is a vital component of ensuring the functioning of the financial system. This study aims to identify and outline possible areas for improving the management of financial flows in the budget process of Ukraine to regulate structural imbalances of the financial system. With the help of ranking and clustering, the analysis and assessment of local budgets based on indicators that characterize the movement of financial flows was carried out. The used methods made it possible to consider the differences in the formation and direction of budget flows of territorial communities and determine the progress of administrative-territorial units. An assessment of the state of financial flows consolidated in the treasury single account of Ukraine was conducted: the dynamics of balance, the volume of loans and repayments to local budgets, and the Pension Fund of Ukraine were considered. The assessment results made it possible to determine the directions of setting a stable and balanced movement of financial flows and levers to regulate the impact of structural imbalances of the financial system related to the management of cash balances of the treasury single account and increase of its liquidity. The volumes of revenues, expenditures, deficit, and borrowings to the State Budget of Ukraine were estimated to determine the conditions that cause imbalances in the financial system. The directions for timely and complete execution of the decisions by state authorities and local self-governments are outlined.

The transition to future-oriented medium-term budget planning has been an important innovation in the budget process of Ukraine. Since then, the main budget indicators are calculated for the next three years with a forecast that allows for systemic reforms in several areas. This paper aims to identify problems of implementing budget planning for generating an envisaged and balanced budget in conjunction with the priorities of the state. The current status of budget planning and budget performance is analyzed by reviewing budget legislation, budget reporting, information-analytical and presentation data of state authorities and local governments, the experience of developed countries that have achieved some success in medium-term budget planning in terms of income and spending. The paper also reveals the features and advantages of medium-term budget planning based on the result; explores the approaches to transparent, effective, and high-quality use of budget funds with a limited potential of the state to increase tax revenues. The implementation of budget planning is due to the need for further development of the budget process in Ukraine towards increasing predictability, transparency, stabilizing the budget in the medium term, and solving important problems of efficient and high-quality use of budget funds for economic and social recovery.

Managing budget flows under martial law is important to ensure the security and financial stability of the state, helping to mobilize the necessary resources and concentrate them on financing key needs. This paper aims to identify and outline possible measures to balance the movement of budget flows in order to harmonize them with the goals of state policy in the field of national security. The movement of budget flows of income and expenses was assessed, and trends and changes were identified using economic and statistical methods. The assessment results confirmed the need for reasonable planning of budget flows in the context of the impact of unforeseen military events on the process of budget execution in terms of revenues and expenditures, which leads to failure to meet expenditure indicators, causes a lack of financial resources and an increase in the budget deficit. One of these measures is the improvement of budget planning, which is based on the analysis, detection, and assessment of the probability of occurrence and countering the risks related to the state’s financial system. Correlation-regression analysis confirmed the growing dependence of revenues on official transfers from the EU, foreign governments, international organizations, donor institutions, and government bodies. The results obtained are basic for developing measures to balance incoming and outgoing budget flows under martial law. They provide for the obligation to create a financial support system (including international financial aid) while strengthening state financial control measures for the timely, targeted, effective direction of budget flows, including for the security and defense of the state.