Judit Sági

In response to a sharp rise in household credit repayment risk after the 2008 crisis, the banking sector was consolidated, borrowing conditions were tightened and the regulatory authorities had to improve the financial literacy of population. The study evaluates the effectiveness of regulatory measures to prevent excessive indebtedness, and analyzes the results of the latest survey of population financial literacy in Hungary after the 2008 financial crisis. The results confirm the scientific studies of different economists and scholars who state that the financial awareness is closely related to household saving and borrowing patterns. The outcomes of the analysis reveal the risks associated with the lack of financial literacy in Hungary. In fact, the financial awareness of households over the past years has not improved significantly either in the wake of losses suffered on FX-based loans, or as a result of the preventive actions undertaken by the government regulatory bodies.

The aim of this study is to examine how bankruptcy prediction models forecast financial strength for family businesses. Three predictive tests are used to study financial strength for three consecutive years (2016, 2017 and 2018) for a sample of 462,200 active Hungarian companies using the Amadeus database and expert data. Complex statistical model tests for credit assessment (bankruptcy predictions) are performed by size and ownership of the companies. It is found that the revised Altman model is impeded by a superfluous high weighting on net working capital; therefore, IN05 Quick Test predicted better chances for businesses in generating cash flows in a small emerging economy. By re-formulating the Bankruptcy Index of Karas and Režňáková and refining its coefficients, the modified Bankruptcy Index is more robust for predicting the financial health of family businesses on a cash flow basis. The test results of this modified Bankruptcy Index confirm the relative advance of family businesses in creating added value for owners. Practical implications arise from a management perspective: family businesses work better with predictability of survival in accordance with the model; therefore, their ability to adapt to financial constraints caused by crises is also more promising.