Tourism as a driver of economic development in Armenia: Macroeconomic linkages and regional disparities

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Type of the article: Research Article

Tourism has become a key driver of inclusive growth and economic diversification in transition economies, including the Republic of Armenia, making it a priority area of development. This study evaluates the interaction between tourism sector indicators and national macroeconomic performance on GDP. Annual data for 2001–2023 were analyzed using a robust econometric framework that integrates LASSO regression, Granger causality tests, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling. GDP was consistently treated as the dependent variable, while LASSO served only as a variable selection tool to identify the most influential indicators.

The results reveal that economic growth is shaped not only by quantitative expansion but also by qualitative improvements. Hotel infrastructure (β = 3.59, p = 0.011) and the share of tourism in total exports (β = 18.99, p = 0.046) significantly stimulate GDP, while international tourist arrivals show a negligible and slightly negative correlation (–0.000097, p = 0.036), underscoring the limited efficiency of visitor numbers without adequate monetization. Spatial analysis highlights a concentrated market structure, with 82% of revenues concentrated in Yerevan (HHI = 0.70), despite Kotayk’s high specialization index (LQ = 14.1). Regional elasticity estimates indicate that Vayots Dzor (ε ≈ 0.85), Kotayk (ε ≈ 0.67), and Syunik (ε ≈ 0.58) are most sensitive to tourism-driven growth, far above the national average (ε ≈ 0.34).

These findings suggest that Armenia’s tourism-led GDP growth depends on infrastructure modernization, high-value services, and balanced regional development. Policy interventions should prioritize decentralization and large-scale investment over simple visitor growth.

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    • Table 1. Results of VAR estimation
    • Table 2. Average elasticity of regional GDP with respect to hotel revenue by region
    • Conceptualization
      Susanna Aghajanyan, Albert Hayrapetyan, Melanya Gharagyozyan, Hovhannes Karapetyan
    • Data curation
      Susanna Aghajanyan, Melanya Gharagyozyan, Meri Badalyan
    • Project administration
      Susanna Aghajanyan
    • Resources
      Susanna Aghajanyan
    • Supervision
      Susanna Aghajanyan, Meri Badalyan
    • Writing – review & editing
      Susanna Aghajanyan, Albert Hayrapetyan, Melanya Gharagyozyan, Meri Badalyan
    • Formal Analysis
      Albert Hayrapetyan, Hovhannes Karapetyan
    • Methodology
      Albert Hayrapetyan, Melanya Gharagyozyan
    • Visualization
      Melanya Gharagyozyan
    • Writing – original draft
      Meri Badalyan, Hovhannes Karapetyan
    • Investigation
      Hovhannes Karapetyan
    • Software
      Hovhannes Karapetyan
    • Validation
      Hovhannes Karapetyan