Tourism as a driver of economic development in Armenia: Macroeconomic linkages and regional disparities
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DOIhttp://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24(2).2026.45
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Article InfoVolume 24 2026, Issue #2, pp. 660-669
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Type of the article: Research Article
Tourism has become a key driver of inclusive growth and economic diversification in transition economies, including the Republic of Armenia, making it a priority area of development. This study evaluates the interaction between tourism sector indicators and national macroeconomic performance on GDP. Annual data for 2001–2023 were analyzed using a robust econometric framework that integrates LASSO regression, Granger causality tests, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling. GDP was consistently treated as the dependent variable, while LASSO served only as a variable selection tool to identify the most influential indicators.
The results reveal that economic growth is shaped not only by quantitative expansion but also by qualitative improvements. Hotel infrastructure (β = 3.59, p = 0.011) and the share of tourism in total exports (β = 18.99, p = 0.046) significantly stimulate GDP, while international tourist arrivals show a negligible and slightly negative correlation (–0.000097, p = 0.036), underscoring the limited efficiency of visitor numbers without adequate monetization. Spatial analysis highlights a concentrated market structure, with 82% of revenues concentrated in Yerevan (HHI = 0.70), despite Kotayk’s high specialization index (LQ = 14.1). Regional elasticity estimates indicate that Vayots Dzor (ε ≈ 0.85), Kotayk (ε ≈ 0.67), and Syunik (ε ≈ 0.58) are most sensitive to tourism-driven growth, far above the national average (ε ≈ 0.34).
These findings suggest that Armenia’s tourism-led GDP growth depends on infrastructure modernization, high-value services, and balanced regional development. Policy interventions should prioritize decentralization and large-scale investment over simple visitor growth.
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JEL Classification (Paper profile tab)L83, O18, C32, R11
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References32
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Tables2
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Figures0
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- Table 1. Results of VAR estimation
- Table 2. Average elasticity of regional GDP with respect to hotel revenue by region
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