Liudmyla Saher

Changes in the logistics of energy resources and their potential shortage are causing a review of the EU energy policy. The energy sector significantly affects the progress toward achieving climate policy goals due to significt greenhouse gas emissions. The REPowerEU plan, implemented in the EU27 to overcome the energy crisis, requires new forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions due to a change in European energy policy.
This paper aims to examine the consequences of the management of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on EU climate policy. This study focuses on forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in the EU until 2030 and uses the Seasonal ARIMA model based on quarterly time series in the EU27.
Depending on energy management and changes in energy policy to overcome the energy crisis, a positive or negative scenario for greenhouse gas emissions may occur. An important parameter that should be considered when determining the scenario of the EU energy development according to climate policy was defined by correlation analysis.
According to the negative scenario and under the influence of the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the value of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU at the beginning of 2030 will be 0.752911 tons per capita. The positive scenario shows greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to 0.235225 tons per capita.
The study results proved two extreme scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, depending on how to overcome the energy crisis.

Acknowledgment
The authors appreciate the copyright holder: © European Union, 1995–2022, as well as the source of the extracted data, which is the European Commission website, Eurostat http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat (accessed on 16 October 2022).
This study was funded by the European Union (the project No. 101048079 – EU4SmartED – ERASMUS-JMO-2021-HEI-TCH-RSCH); by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (projects No. 0122U000788, 0122U000769, 0121U109553, 0120U102001, 0122U000777).
This research was funded by Faculty of Organization and Management of the Silesian University of Technology (grant number: 13/990/BK_23/0178).

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study aims to examine how different EU economic models mediate the relationship between post-crisis economic restructuring and migration pressures by analyzing the co-evolution of immigration, public finance, social protection, and labor market indicators, and to identify which institutional configurations most effectively harness migration to support resilient and inclusive growth. The analysis employs a panel of EU member states, combining harmonized indicators (immigration, GDP per capita, at-risk-of-poverty rates, public finances, and labor market conditions) and two-way fixed-effects regressions with interactions for economic models (social market, neoliberal, and mixed) and predictive margins. The results indicate that immigration is associated with modest but statistically significant gains in GDP per capita in social market economies. A 1 percentage point increase in the share of immigrants corresponds to a rise of around 0.3–0.4% in GDP per capita (p < 0.05). The effect is smaller and only weakly significant in neoliberal economies, and approaches zero in mixed economies. The direct impact of immigration on at-risk-of-poverty rates is limited in all three models, with coefficients close to zero, and country-time effects explain the bulk of the variation in poverty. Neoliberal economies combine relatively higher average GDP with greater dispersion and higher poverty risks, whereas mixed economies exhibit lower GDP levels and more volatile poverty dynamics. The findings indicate that institutional design and welfare-labor market architectures condition whether migration supports resilient and inclusive post-crisis restructuring, implying that migration policy must be integrated with broader social, labor, and fiscal reforms.

Acknowledgments
The project was funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under the project No. 09I03-03-V01-00023 and the Ministry of Education, Research, Development and Youth of the Slovak Republic, and the Slovak Academy of Sciences (VEGA 2/0172/2). Oleksandr Matsenko acknowledges that his input to the publication was prepared within the framework of the research project “Restructuring of the national economy in the direction of digital transformations for sustainable development” (№0122U001232) funded by the National Research Foundation of Ukraine.