Aynur Jabbarova

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study analyzes the causal relationships between economic growth, inflation, exports, and domestic credit to the private sector in Turkey using annual data covering the period from 1990 to 2024, obtained from the World Bank and the Turkish Statistical Institute. The empirical strategy is based on a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework combined with the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality approach, with the long-run interactions among the variables further examined through Johansen cointegration analysis. This integrated methodology allows for a comprehensive assessment of both short-run dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships in the Turkish macro-financial system. The empirical findings from the Toda–Yamamoto causality tests reveal statistically significant causal effects running from exports of goods and services, economic growth, and inflation to domestic credit to the private sector. Specifically, exports (EXGS), GDP growth (GDPG), and inflation (INF) each exert a meaningful influence on domestic private sector credit (DOCR), indicating that historical movements in these macroeconomic variables possess substantial explanatory and predictive power for credit dynamics. These results underscore the importance of real economic activity, external trade performance, and price stability in shaping the evolution of financial intermediation in Turkey. From a policy perspective, the results imply that maintaining export competitiveness, promoting stable and inclusive economic growth, and ensuring low and predictable inflation are essential for improving private sector credit access, reinforcing financial sector performance, and fostering sustainable economic development and macroeconomic stability in Turkey.

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
This study examines the predictive relationship between real non-oil economic growth and household bank deposit growth in Azerbaijan using annual data for 2000–2024. Real non-oil GDP and individual bank deposits are measured at constant 2010 prices and transformed into annual logarithmic growth rates. The empirical analysis combines conventional linear Granger causality testing with a nonlinear Kernel Granger causality approach based on radial basis function kernel ridge regression. Nonlinear predictive performance is assessed through expanding-window rolling-origin cross-validation and a circular-shift permutation test. The results indicate a modest improvement in predictive accuracy when nonlinear information is incorporated, with mean squared error declining from 402.41 to 376.16, corresponding to a 3.32% reduction in root mean squared error. Nevertheless, the Kernel Granger statistic is statistically insignificant (KGC = 0.067, p = 0.416), providing no robust evidence of nonlinear predictive causality. Conventional linear Granger testing initially suggests unidirectional causality from non-oil GDP growth to household deposit growth (F = 5.305, p = 0.032), with no evidence of reverse causality. However, introducing a 2015–2016 crisis pulse dummy substantially reduces the lagged GDP growth coefficient from 1.818 to 0.689 and eliminates its statistical significance, while the crisis indicator remains highly significant. These findings suggest that the apparent linear relationship is largely driven by the 2015–2016 macro-financial shock rather than a stable underlying mechanism. Overall, the evidence does not support a robust linear or nonlinear predictive relationship between non-oil economic growth and household deposit growth in Azerbaijan.