Medet Konyrbekov

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Given the instability of global energy markets and recurring price shocks, it is increasingly important to assess the sustainability of economic growth in countries heavily dependent on oil and gas, such as Kazakhstan. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the oil and gas sector’s production, fiscal and external sector transmission channels on Kazakhstan’s economic growth during 2010–2024. The empirical base includes official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Finance, and the World Bank, as well as economic indicators related to exchange-rate dynamics and inflation. The study employs a combination of cointegration analysis, vector error correction models (VECM), and short-term ordinary least squares (OLS) specifications. The results show that oil production and GDP are linked by a stable long-term relationship, with the error-correction term indicating that about 24% of deviations from equilibrium are eliminated per year. Gas production emerges as a key short-term growth factor: a one-thousand-ton increase in gas production is associated with a 5.26 billion tenge (11.8 million USD) in GDP (p = 0.002). Tax revenues from the oil and gas sector exert a moderate positive effect on economic dynamics (p = 0.065), reflecting fiscal sensitivity to external conditions. The external sector channel exhibits the strongest short-term effect: a one-unit depreciation of tenge is associated with an average increase of 2.61 × 10⁵ tenge in nominal GDP (p < 0.01). Overall, the results indicate that Kazakhstan’s economic growth is shaped by long-term dependence on production and short-term transmission of price and financial shocks.

Acknowledgments
This paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Strategy for the structural and technological modernization of the basic sectors of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking into account ESG approaches: criteria, implementation mechanisms, and forecast scenarios” BR24993089).

Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
Export diversification and the growth of non-resource exports remain key strategic priorities for Kazakhstan, particularly for food manufacturing firms facing organizational and institutional obstacles to participation in international markets. We seek to assess managerial, institutional, organizational, and ownership-related drivers associated with direct and broader export participation, targeting food manufacturing enterprises in Kazakhstan. The empirical analysis uses the food sampling-sector domain of the 2024 World Bank Enterprise Survey for Kazakhstan. The complete national dataset contains 1,013 establishments, and the initial food-domain subsample comprised 128 establishments. After listwise deletion of observations with missing values, the final estimation sample consisted of n = 121 establishments in the direct export model and n = 121 establishments in the any-export model. The statistical analysis applies survey-weighted logistic regression and average marginal effects. The findings suggest that organizational capabilities are important for firms’ export operations. Digital presence (β = 2.030; p = 0.004), process innovation (β = 1.789; p = 0.010), and firm size (β = 1.491; p = 0.001) are positively associated with direct export participation. Broader export involvement is associated with foreign ownership and customs restrictions. Strengthening export competitiveness therefore requires improvements in organizational preparedness, innovation, digital communication, customs procedures, and logistics.

Acknowledgments
This study is funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK under grant IRN AP23489234 “Research on new instruments for the development of agrotechnological hubs in the regions of Kazakhstan to enhance the country’s competitiveness in the Eurasian region.”