E-government and public investment management under fiscal consolidation

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Type of the article: Research Article

Abstract
The study tests whether e-government development is associated with the level of central-government investment and the size of the investment cut that accompanies fiscal consolidation. Two-way fixed-effects panel regressions are estimated for 134 economies across the twelve waves of the United Nations E-Government Survey between 2003 and 2024 (1,319 country-wave observations), with World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) fiscal data. When the primary balance improves by at least one percentage point of GDP in a survey year, countries at the 25th percentile of the E-Government Development Index cut central-government investment by 0.94 percentage points of GDP, and those at the 75th by 0.20 (interaction β = 2.15 per index unit, p = 0.009). Above the upper quartile, the cut is indistinguishable from zero. Outside consolidation episodes, e-government development has no detectable association with investment levels, and the estimate rules out the negative cross-country gradient. The same pattern holds for the capital share of central-government spending and across alternative episode definitions, winsorized outcomes, leave-one-country-out, permutation, and placebo tests and two independent investment series; it is not separable from government effectiveness and weakens with country-specific trends and upper-tail trimming. Episodes achieved through revenue and current spending leave investment untouched at every level of the index; the attenuation reflects the composition of fiscal adjustment. The evidence casts e-government as a marker of the administrative capacity that keeps consolidation off the capital budget; if the association is causal, digital budget, procurement, and project-pipeline systems belong in place before adjustment begins.

Acknowledgment
The contribution of Liudmyla Zakharkina was prepared within the framework of the research project “GovTech for Ukraine: A Digital, Secure, Transparent, and Equitable State in Times of War and Post-War Reconstruction” (registration number 0126U000544), funded by the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine. The other authors received no external funding for this study.

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    • Figure 1. Marginal effect of a consolidation episode on (a) central-government investment and (b) the capital share across the E-Government Development Index
    • Figure 2. Specification curve of the EGDI × consolidation interaction, 56 specifications, relative to the baseline estimate
    • Table 1. Variables and definitions
    • Table 2. Descriptive statistics, level sample for investment, 134 countries, 2003–2024
    • Table 3. E-government and public investment levels, two-way fixed effects, 2003–2024
    • Table 4. Public investment under fiscal consolidation, two-way fixed effects, 2003–2024
    • Table 5. The consolidation episode: Alternative definitions and the composition of adjustment, 2003–2024
    • Table 6. EGDI × consolidation against competing interactions, two-way fixed effects, 2003–2024
    • Table 7. EGDI × consolidation by core government systems, two-way fixed effects, 2003–2024
    • Table A1. Sample construction: From the full wave grid to the estimation samples
    • Table A2. Countries in the level sample by income group, with waves observed and consolidation episodes, 2003–2024
    • Table A3. Country-waves with negative central-government net investment in nonfinancial assets, excluded from the capital share
    • Table B1. Pairwise correlations and variance inflation factors, level sample for investment, 134 countries, 2003–2024
    • Table C1. E-government, public investment, and the capital share of spending: Stepwise controls and winsorized outcome, two-way fixed effects, 2003–2024
    • Table C2. Robustness of the level estimates of EGDI, selected specifications, two-way fixed effects
    • Table C3. Robustness of the EGDI × consolidation interaction: Measurement, sample, placebo, and permutation tests
    • Table C4. Leave-one-country-out re-estimation: Level model and consolidation interaction
    • Conceptualization
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Liudmyla Zakharkina, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Formal Analysis
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Zaiga Oborenko, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Resources
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Software
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska
    • Visualization
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Writing – original draft
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Liudmyla Zakharkina, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Writing – review & editing
      Mkhitar Aslanyan, Liudmyla Zakharkina, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk
    • Investigation
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Methodology
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Project administration
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Supervision
      Liudmyla Zakharkina
    • Validation
      Liudmyla Zakharkina, Rostyslav Shchokin, Tetiana Shabelnyk, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova
    • Data curation
      Zaiga Oborenko, Diana Zmicerevska, Zanna Klescevņikova